🇺🇸 The Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, noted during his testimony that he prefers “underlying” inflation gauges, such as “trimmed average” and “median” inflation. Here are the Cleveland Fed’s comparable measures.

🇺🇸 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q1 GDP at 1.2%.

🇺🇸 US financial conditions have eased significantly this month, fully unwinding all the tightening since the Iran conflict began.

🇺🇸 Consumption growth, unsurprisingly, tends to decline after gas prices surge. The current path, based on our real-time consumption growth estimate, is tracking the historical median closely.

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Apr. 17, 2026).
#economy

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Apr. 17, 2026).
#economy

The S&P 500 financials sector broke above its 200-day moving average.

The VIX fell for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since November 2023.

🇩🇪 Germany’s DAX broke above its 200-day moving average.

🇺🇸 The cyclically-adjusted (Shiller) P/E remains elevated (inverted in the chart below), which does not bode well for long-term equity returns.

🇺🇸 Initial jobless claims fell to 207K, below consensus, signaling limited layoffs.

🇺🇸 The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index surged, crushing expectations. New orders hit the highest level since late 2021, though employment fell back into contractionary territory. Price pressures surged.

🇪🇺 Our timely tracking of euro area growth has softened meaningfully, with Germany near stagnation.

🇨🇳 China's economy expanded by +5.0% Y/Y in Q1, above consensus (+4.8%). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, growth accelerated to 5.3% (SAAR).

🇺🇸 Mentions of "uncertainty" in the Beige Book jumped.

🇺🇸 The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly surged into expansionary territory, smashing expectations.

🇺🇸 The Nasdaq composite has gained for 10 consecutive days, the longest winning streak since 2021. $QQQ

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 energy sector entered a correction. $XLE

🇺🇸 March headline PPI rose 0.51% month over month, while core PPI inflation was even tamer at 0.09% month over month, both well below consensus.

🇺🇸 Existing home sales fell, missing expectations, reflecting a soft labor market, weak consumer confidence, and affordability issues. The decline mostly predates the recent jump in mortgage rates, suggesting further weakness ahead.

Global equity forward P/E by country –

Stocks down & oil up, as US and Iran fail to reach a deal.
Source: @HyperliquidX

Here's how global assets performed in the week ending April 10, 2026.
#investing

US equities are trading at a 36% premium relative to the rest of the world.

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Apr. 10, 2026).
#economy

🇺🇸 The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plummeted to an all-time low of 47.6, well below the consensus, reflecting consumer concerns over supply disruptions and rising gasoline prices.

🇺🇸 Gasoline prices posted their largest jump on record.

🇺🇸 Headline inflation for March jumped, in line with consensus, driven by a surge in energy prices. Core inflation eased and was a touch lower than expected.

🇨🇳 China producer price index rose 0.5% Y/Y in March, the first positive reading in three years.

🇨🇳 China inflation eased in March.