Perhaps we should just end this conversation here. Bye Rodney.

Managed what?

In what way do you think it contradicts itself?

I think the anti-Labour vote splits between left and right. Right wingers will vote Tory or Reform. Dissolutioned left-wingers are abandoning Labour to vote Green. But where Reform stands good chance we see the anti-Reform vote coalescing around whoever is seen as most likely to beat them.

I'm not convinced. I think many people who feel disillusioned and politically 'homeless' at the moment will not be voting 'for' any party, but rather voting against the party they most dislike. For some that will be about removing Labour incumbents, for others about keeping Reform out.

Why do you think that people are 'done with tactical voting'?

You're right - often constituency polls in by-elections have very small sample numbers. For me, polling about voting intentions has only one purpose - to give an indication of how people will vote. That has heightened importance now that tactical voting is likely to become more commonplace.

The constituency poll would need to be compared against the actual result.

Only if they have polled a by-election.

Only what can be measured is measurable.

If you measure FindOutNow's performance in predicting the GE results, we would conclude that their record is not good. If you examine their by-election record there does not appear to be any evidence that might persuade us to adjust that conclusion.

On what do you base your vlaim that I am "contradicting myself?

UK Polling Firms: Comparison & Accuracy Check How reliable are UK election polls? Discover the accuracy of major polling firms, their historical track record, and analysis of systematic biases.

There have been elections since the GE. PolitPro asogives FindOutNow a very low ranking: UK Polling Firms: Comparison & Accuracy Check share.google/RvaelqGFiXGn...

One can only measure what's measurable.

It measures final polls against final results. Not sure what you think is problematic about that. Much of my published research concerns the music industry, but as a phd supervisor I oversaw a wide range of doctoral research. Evaluation of sources was a key process.

As a researcher, I don't approach any data source 'uncritically'. Their pollster accuracy scores are based on the difference between each pollster’s final poll and the final results. The data they use to make that assessment is available on their website

Uncritically accepting opinion polls without any external scrutiny or validation of the source is not 'thinking for yourself'.

I don't have a great deal of faith in any polling company to be frank, but if they can raise themselves to a C, I'll start to taketh seriously.

I so it's actually the fact that two polling companies published similar results over the past couple of weeks that you see as a 'trend'. I wouldn't 'deny' that they did, but I do doub it has any significance. I give more weight to the statistical anaysis you airily dismiss as 'word salad'.

If you think I have a 'Labour brain' your telepathic powers have let you down badly. Guess again. 😁

I think I can see where you've misunderstood what I'm saying. When you say 'this is not a one week anomaly', what exactly fo you mean by 'this'? Are you referring to some aspect of the poll findings?

Because you keep using the word 'denial' I can only guess that you mistakenly assume that my critique of Find Out Now is to do with their findings. It isn't - YouGov have very similar findings and I have no issue with them. My critique has nothing whatsoever to do with these poll results.

It is one week where their results happen to align with YouGov's. That's not a 'trend'. If you follow the link you will find information about UK Election Data Vault. I think you'll agree that their provenance is impressive.

Exactly. YouGov is a reputable polling organisation. I have no problem with their findings. The fact that a low quality polling company has similar results doesn't make that company credible.

Are you comfortable enough to answer my question?

I will continue to disregard results all pollsters with a D rating.

I'm not denying anything. I am perfectly happy to use YouGov results as a basis for discussion. The fact that Find Out Now happens to align with them this week is neither here nor there. Pollster ratings are from UK Election Data Vault share.google/mtjFXikK4Kwn...

Specifically what aspect of reality are you refering to?

I have no problem with the YouGov poll. The fact that the latest poll from 4th rate polling company aligns with it doesn't indicate that Find Out Now is suddenly a credible polling company. The credibility of a poll is not dependent on whether or not you like the results.

Pointing out the foolishness of relying on the findings of a polling company with a D rating isn't 'denial'. What do you imagine I'm 'denying'?