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Posts by LSHTM TB Modelling Group

We found that #TB epidemics are becoming increasingly urbanised.

Important implications for supporting effective public health interventions to end tuberculosis epidemics.

🧪 #MedSky
@uofgshw.bsky.social
@kchorton.bsky.social
@nswartwood.bsky.social

journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...

1 week ago 7 6 1 0

Great to see this work led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social with @lightontb.bsky.social in @commsmed.nature.com. Further evidence that addressing gender disparities in TB burden and care are necessary for both an equitable response *and* an effective response. ⬇️

2 weeks ago 5 7 0 0

In our latest paper in @plosmedicine.org, we explore trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, coverage, and duration of community screening for #TB, highlighting the importance of symptom-agnostic approaches and the need for strategies to sustain impact when screening ends.

plos.io/4tuD2SM

1 week ago 12 10 1 0
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Tomorrow! If you're not lucky enough to be in Cape Town in person, @tb-lshtm.bsky.social is hosting a watch party in London or join remotely tinyurl.com/47w5nmtp
⏰ 15.30 BST
@theunion.org @thelancet.com @joylawn.bsky.social
@sedonasweeney.bsky.social @hr-stagg.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social

3 weeks ago 4 4 0 2

A year after my last day with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social my work on modelling the impact of increasing men's access to care and reducing excess risk of TB has gone live @commsmed.nature.com

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

3 weeks ago 4 6 0 0
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Acceptability of a proposed new tuberculosis vaccine among people deprived of liberty in Brazil Tuberculosis (TB) persists as a global threat, with unequal burden across populations. New TB vaccines are in development, and people deprived of libe…

Happy to see that our work in TB vaccine acceptability in Brazilian prions is on!

6 male and 2 female prison units at 6 Brazilian cities, >900 individual interviews, with 95.2% of acceptance to a new proposed TB vaccine. However...

#TBsky #IDsky
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

1 month ago 12 3 1 0

Our analysis of #TB exposure and transmission patterns is now in @pnas.org. @petedodd24.bsky.social and I found a majority of TB transmission globally is attributable to contact with adult men, while contributions to transmission by age are more variable across regions.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

1 month ago 10 8 0 0
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🗞️ Recent study with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of funding cuts to TB #PublicHealth initiatives from international donors

Already implemented USAID cuts could cost $7.5 billion (USD) for healthcare systems & people living with TB

Read 🔽
www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...

1 month ago 11 11 0 1
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The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...

With Nick Menzies and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social, our new modeling study estimated how reductions in donor funding could affect the economic burden of #TB on patients, especially among the poorest households journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...

1 month ago 5 5 0 1
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Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...

Our recent modelling study found that the estimated impact of new TB vaccines depends on the efficacy to prevent infectious asymptomatic TB. Read more in our paper out now in @plosmedicine.org!

journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...

1 month ago 15 13 1 0
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The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...

In this modeling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries 🧪 #MedSky #TB
plos.io/4ryyBFX

1 month ago 15 15 0 2
The effects of war on digital adherence technology engagement for TB treatment in Ukraine SUMMARYBACKGROUNDThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted TB care. We examine the effects of the war on people with drug-susceptible TB (PWTB) and health care worker (HCW) engagement with a digital adherence technology (DAT).METHODSWe conducted a cluster-randomised trial of a DAT intervention in Ukraine. In the intervention arm, PWTB received a pillbox with a daily treatment reminder. Pillbox openings were captured real-time onto a platform, accessed by HCWs who could add manual doses where relevant. We compared DAT engagement in pre-, early-, and later-war periods.RESULTSFrom June 2021 to 2022, 816 PWTB (32% women, median age 44 years) were enrolled. DAT engagement varied across regions and time period, with a decline in engagement post-February 2022. PWTB DAT engagement was 78%–84% of treatment-days. There was a three- to four-fold increase in unknown dose or delays in manual reporting of adherence (>7 days) post-February 2022 versus pre-war in Mykolaivska and Donetska oblasts and a two-fold increase in Odeska, Lvivska, and Zakarpatska oblasts.CONCLUSIONThe war significantly disrupted DAT engagement, particularly in regions heavily affected by the conflict. Reduced engagement was likely due to migration and communication challenges. There is a critical need for resilient TB care in conflict settings.

We know conflict & crises have severe repercussions for TB; health system disruptions, displacement, food insecurity... In our latest paper we examine the effects of war in Ukraine on engagement with a digital adherence tech by people w TB & health care workers journals.theunion.org/content/ijtl...

2 months ago 10 8 1 0
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Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...

1/📢 In our new publication, we estimate that in 2022, 134 million people worldwide had a recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and were at high risk of progressing to TB disease. Read the full paper in PLOS Medicine (tinyurl.com/mtbinfection). #TBSky

2 months ago 37 25 2 2
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Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...

In this mathematical modeling study, Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis—that which can cause disease and be transmitted—to help guide disease prevention efforts 🧪 #tuberculosis #MedSky
plos.io/4aqzIQV

2 months ago 11 6 0 2

Led by Kathy Thomas and including many others not appearing on Bluesky!

@raclark18.bsky.social
@richardwhite321.bsky.social
@tb-lshtm.bsky.social
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
@lshtm.bsky.social

2 months ago 1 0 0 0

Interviews with 26 South African stakeholders revealed strong support for a broad population-based rollout of a new TB #vaccine, but suggested that high risk groups such as people living with HIV, #healthcare workers, and TB #household contacts may be prioritised if resources are constrained

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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Insights on the implementation strategies for a potential new tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa Several tuberculosis (TB) vaccines intended for adults and adolescents are in late-stage clinical trials, but there is limited research into how a new TB vaccine would be introduced. South Africa is a...

Our new paper on strategies for implementing a potential new #TB #vaccine in South Africa is now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org!

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

2 months ago 7 10 1 0
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Our Editor’s Choice commentary in @cidjournal.bsky.social finds that reported TB symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, as they are heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer variability, and may have alternative causes.

Read more here👇🏻

doi.org/10.1093/cid/...

4 months ago 4 3 0 0
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Information for applicants - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships MRC LID studentship information for applicants How to Apply Projects Studentship funding Studentship options Studentship...

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social

5 months ago 7 7 1 1
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Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling!

Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.

4 months ago 12 7 1 1
2026-27 Project (Sumner & Clark & Grint) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor Dr Tom Sumner...

#5 Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social

5 months ago 1 3 0 0
2026-27 Project (Khan & McCreesh & Sumner) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...

#4 Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner

5 months ago 0 1 1 0
2026-27 Project (Clark & White) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered? SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...

#3 How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered?
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social

5 months ago 1 3 1 0
2026-27 Project (McQuaid & Saunders & Stagg) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...

#2 Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg

5 months ago 0 2 1 0
2026-27 Project (Horton & Houben) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor Dr Katherine Horton...

#1 Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social

5 months ago 1 1 1 0

Come join us for a PhD in the TB Modelling Group!

5 months ago 1 1 0 0
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Perhaps the most important collaboration at #UnionConf2025?

WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰

Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025

5 months ago 9 2 0 1
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What’s a #UnionConf without the TB modelling course? Packed room again for a long day of intro to modelling.
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky

5 months ago 17 5 1 1

Interested in #TB, equity, and modelling? @reinhouben.bsky.social and I are advertising an MRC LID studentship on heterogeneity in the coverage of community screening for TB @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social.

For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...

5 months ago 3 4 0 1
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Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants that drive tuberculosis, the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in w...

Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

5 months ago 22 18 1 0