Florida Democrat Brian Nathan's victory is now the 30th red-to-blue flip of a legislative seat since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

During that span, the GOP has flipped zero seats. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle

Oh yeah, in case you haven't bookmarked it yet, our special election Big Board is the original recipe. We've been tracking these races like a hawk for a decade—accept no substitutes!

Dems outperforming 2024 presidential results by an average of 13 points.

BREAKING: Florida Democrats just picked up a second seat in Tuesday's special elections Brian Nathan's win is the 30th red-to-blue flip of Trump's second term. The GOP has flipped zero seats in that span.

The second Florida flip of the night! Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy vet and union leader, just won a GOP-held seat in the state Senate.

Our full writeup -->

Florida Democrats flip Donald Trump's home district in Palm Beach Emily Gregory will now represent Mar-a-Lago—and Trump himself

BREAKING: Democrats just flipped the Florida House district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Yes, Donald Trump is going to be represented by a Democrat.

Our complete recap -->

SO DO YOU!

My recollection of the Chuck Todd from 20 years ago (during his National Journal days) was pretty good. I always enjoyed his deep-dive insights on downballot races. I (unsurprisingly) didn’t feel the same way when he “went mainstream”, but if he’s finding his voice again then I’m happy to hear it.

CNN's "100% MAGA Trump approval" segment omits key nuance for virality Plus, voters overwhelmingly oppose putting boots on the ground in Iran. Your weekly political data roundup for March 22, 2026.

I thought this segment from Enten was bad use of polling www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...

Big if true.

"With any luck, he already has a peace plan."

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle

We're delighted to see people pay so much attention to special elections and legislative elections these days! Tracking these races is one of our favorite things to do.

It's also a lot of work! We'd be really grateful if folks citing that figure of 28 R→D flips would link back to our tracker:

Because you sickos love this, here's the updated flip count in legislative seats since the start of Trump's second term, following tonight's Dem win in New Hampshire:

Democrats: 28

Republicans: 0

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

JUST IN: Democrats have flipped a Trump+9 seat in the New Hampshire House, per reporter Kevin Landrigan.

Republicans outspent Dems by a considerable margin.

This is now the 10th special election flip for Ds in Trump's second term, versus zero for the GOP. sos.tn.gov/elections/20...

And, also, like, you could go through many countries' Olympic rosters and find multiple athletes that fit that bill, in every direction. The scorn is very selective.

Absolutely stunning shot.

It feels like including the ALP in these polls is getting increasingly irresponsible. They contested *13* seats in 2023!

BIG lead for Alex Holladay in the early vote in the Arkansas #HD70 (Harris+2) special election. Very much on track for a flip for the Dems here tonight in suburban Little Rock

Has someone gamed out all the possibilities for the 4th place race if Homan wins both games? i.e. are there scenarios where Canada would lose a tiebreaker?

Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return

The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.

Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.

Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->

Because they want to make beautiful art

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2017-18 cycle

By this point in Trump 1.0, the GOP had flipped 4 legislative seats from Democrats in specials (LA-HD42, NJ-SD02, MS-SD10, & MA-SD-Worcester & Middlesex) while Democrats had 35 flips (the majority of those being VA & NJ regular election flips).

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Breaking: Texas Democrats score landslide upset in race Trump badly wanted to win Taylor Rehmet just flipped a deep-red seat—and gave his party a shot in the arm

BREAKING: Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet just won a *massive* landslide to flip a deep-red Senate district. He's up by 14 points in a Trump+17 seat—an overperformance of more than 30 points.

How did he do it? Here's our full writeup:

Minnesotans just showed they’ll ‘crawl over broken glass’ to vote, despite ICE terror If Trump sends troops to disrupt voting, he could face a massive backlash

What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.

New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.

LOL. Despite this being a Harris+71 seat, Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai won tonight by a *91-point* margin. Easily one of the wildest overperformances we’ve ever seen, given the district’s deep, deep blue lean.

one takeaway from the grok noncon porn thing is that much of the media just isn't interested in an issue they can't pretend has two sides or that doesn't give them an opportunity to shit on the left. Also it would be uncomfortable to justify remaining on twitter after acknowledging it