NEW POD: What The Iran War Did To The Economy w/ @marthagimbel.bsky.social.
When we last checked in on the economy, on Feb 23, we were talking about a soft landing and a well-balanced macroeconomy.
Five days later, we went to war with Iran. Here's how things have changed...
Do you have a favorite backronym, a rom-com explanation of the Straits of Hormuz crisis, or an obsession with the national debt? This episode, welcoming @marthagimbel.bsky.social, is for you! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...
How to Win a Trade War
and....COFFEE?
If you too like coffee, @barnesandnoble.com has a special 25% off deal on pre-orders with the code PREORDER25.
The deal ends TODAY, so pre-order How to Win a Trade War now!
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What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market?
Learn more TODAY! Join @hamiltonproject.org, Peter Orszag,
@jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social
as they dive into the data: www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders...
What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and
@bencasselman.bsky.social an.bsky.social
will dive into the data and what we know: www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders...
What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social will dive into the data and what we know:
Really looking forward to this event, in which we'll try to tackle one of the most important questions in the economy right now: What does A.I. mean for the labor market, both now and in the near future?
Join us next week!
www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders... #EconSky
Just so the Econ crew is aware - the homeowner here is Leo Feler
If you know someone who might fit the bill - please send them our way! Happy to answer any questions.
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
My take is: Did we lose exactly 30k jobs in September? Almost certainly not. Did we lose some jobs in September? Plausibly! Did we add enough jobs in September to keep up with population growth? Seems quite unlikely.
The full piece is here, please give it and all of its many many graphs a read budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eva...
Thanks to @mollykinder.bsky.social @brookings.edu for being such wonderful partners on this and to Josh and Maddie for objectively doing all the work
We plan to update this every month (assuming we get the CPS microdata!) and also to adjust our methodology in response to feedback/new data on usage/exposure. /end
The lack of widespread impacts at this early stage is not unlike the pace of change with previous periods of technological change. Preregistering areas where we would expect to see the impact and continuing to monitor monthly impacts will help us distinguish rumor from fact. 14/
While generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies, it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs. 13/
While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative. The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not yet major disruption. 12/
We should note that data in this space is still imperfect, and usage/exposure is still evolving. Here is a comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's measures of exposure and usage for instance 11/
And also duration of unemployment 10/
We see a similar story using Anthropic's usage data for both automation and augmentation in employment... 9/
And more exposed workers aren't accounting for a greater share of longer-term unemployed workers 8/
So far there's no sign that relatively more exposure to AI is at all impacting the share of employment in those occupations 7/
We then look at employment shares and unemployment by duration among workers who are more or less exposed to AI (according to OpenAI) and whose occupations have more or less usage (automated or augmented) according to Anthropic 6/
If we look at how similar the occupational mix of recent college graduates is to slightly older college graduates - there may be some sign that the difference is growing? But that could be due to 1) noise 2) non-AI factors (such as a slowing labor market), not just AI 5/
In fact, taking a closer look at recent years, the data suggests that this recent trend is not necessarily attributable to AI (Figure 2). Shifts in the occupational mix were well on their way during 2021. 4/
Although recent trends seemingly outpace historical shifts in the occupational mix, the potential effects of AI on the labor market so far are not out of the ordinary. 3/
First, we look at how quickly the overall occupational mix is changing. The job mix for AI appears to be changing faster than it has in the past, although not markedly so. BUT... 2/
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
