Bulgaria’s elections: Radev secures a breakthrough victory Following the parliamentary elections held on 19 April, the conservative-social bloc Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led informally by former president Rumen Radev, has emerged as the clear winner. With 97...

Bulgaria’s elections: Radev secures a breakthrough victory

🇧🇬The overriding objective of the victorious bloc is to ‘dismantle the oligarchic-corruption model’ embodied by Borisov and the oligarch and DPS leader Delyan Peevski.

More from Jan Nowinowski⤵️
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Russia blocks Telegram and cracks down on VPNs In the first half of April, the Russian government intensified its previously announced censorship measures in the digital sphere. It almost completely blocked access to the Telegram messaging platfor...

Russia🇷🇺blocks Telegram and cracks down on VPNs

🛜Efforts to restrict internet access have adverse consequences for domestic political stability and Putin’s image.

Maria Domańska has more⤵️
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Patience wears thin as Ukraine adopts a harder line on China Over the past year, Ukraine has redefined its approach to China. This shift reflects the deepening China–Russia relationship, China’s critical role in sustaining Russia’s war effort, and its propagand...

Patience wears thin as Ukraine adopts a harder line on China
🇨🇳 has traditionally viewed 🇺🇦 as part of 🇷🇺 sphere of influence. In recent years, however, Beijing has recognised opportunities for cooperation.

More by Kacper Sienicki & Michał Bogusz ⤵️
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Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon: one month on The war between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which began on 2 March, continues to escalate. Israel has been striking targets in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as the group’s strongholds ...

🔵Israel’s 🇮🇱 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon 🇱🇧: one month on

➡️The war against Hezbollah forms part of a broader Israeli policy, crystallised after the attack on 7 October 2023, aimed at establishing military hegemony in the Middle East.
🔵OSW's Marek Matusiak has more ⤵️
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Russia after Orbán’s defeat: putting a brave face on a difficult situation Russia’s initial official reactions to the opposition’s electoral triumph in Hungary have been largely calm and pragmatic, although Vladimir Putin has not congratulated the winner. When asked about th...

Russia after Orbán’s defeat: putting a brave face on a difficult situation

🇷🇺 Initial official reactions to the opposition’s electoral triumph in 🇭🇺 have been largely calm and pragmatic, but Vladimir Putin has not congratulated the winner.

By OSW's Witold Rodkiewicz ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

🔴The Kremlin’s Loyal Praetorians 🔴

➡️OSW's Maria Domańska takes an in-depth look at Russia's 🇷🇺 ruling elite in wartime Putinism - from the balance of power to tensions simmering beneath a veneer of stability...

📖Get the fascinating details in her report ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Turkey’s LNG game amid the war in the Middle East

🔵The most significant change in🇹🇷Turkey’s gas market in 2025 was the clear diversification of LNG suppliers.

All the details from Adam Michalski⤵️
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🔵Ceasefire in Iran: an uncertain path to peace
💬"The prospects for a peace agreement appear uncertain."

Our experts Krzysztof Strachota, Marek Matusiak Andrzej Kohut comment on the a two-week ceasefire ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Elections in🇭🇺Hungary: the triumph of Péter Magyar

🔵TISZA’s victory opens the way for a profound restructuring of the model of the state, extending beyond a conventional change of government.

Ilona Gizińska has more⤵️
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Who won the election in Hungary? What’s next for Orbán, Magyar and Fidesz? YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Péter Magyar's TISZA party has beaten Viktor Orbán's FIDESZ in the Hungarian election.

🇭🇺What are the ramifications of this? How large was the victory? Should we expect sweeping changes in Hungary?

Our OSW expert @ASadecki explains🎞️
youtu.be/Mhf9sdfqVp8

➡️Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 mobilisation crisis: a new minister, old challenges

➡️Mykhailo Fedorov, announced far-reaching changes to Ukraine’s mobilisation system aimed at addressing the armed forces personnel shortages.

🔵More by OSW's Krzysztof Nieczypor ⤵️
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➡️Towards a plan: Moldova’s 🇲🇩 non-paper on the reintegration of Transnistria

➡️The non-paper can hardly be regarded as comprehensive or as fully meeting the expectations of Western partners.

🔵More insight by Kamil Całus ⤵️
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Zelensky visits the Middle East: the beginning of military-technical cooperation with the region On 26–29 March, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Middle East, where he held talks with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Jordan. He also met with Ukrainia...

🔵Zelensky visits the Middle East: the beginning of military-technical cooperation with the region

🔵Kyiv 🇺🇦 seeks to leverage the considerable financial, resource, and political potential of the states in the region.

➡️By Kacper Sienicki ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) wishes you a Happy Easter!

Relative stabilisation: Ukraine’s economy on the threshold of the fifth year of war Ukraine’s effective resistance to the Russian invasion over the past four years would not have been possible without a properly functioning economy. Despite the intensity of the ongoing war, the Ukrai...

🔵Relative stabilisation: Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 economy on the threshold of the fifth year of war

🔵Since 2022, defence spending has made up more than half of the total budget, effectively matching budget revenues, increasing each year.

🔵OSW's Sławomir Matuszak has more⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Georgia after the Patriarch’s death: greater state involvement in the Church? On 17 March, Ilia II, Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia, died at the age of 93. He had led the autocephalous Georgian Orthodox Church (GOC) since 1977, the longest tenure in its history. The Patriar...

Georgia 🇬🇪 after the Patriarch’s death: greater state involvement in the Church?

➡️The GOC’s current high level of independence from the state could be significantly reduced.

🔵More insight by OSW's Wojciech Górecki ⤵️
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In line for the throne: preparing for a transfer of power in Turkey In recent months, debate over the transfer of power after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has intensified in Turkey. Under the current constitution, the incumbent head of state cannot seek another term...

🔵 In line for the throne: preparing for a transfer of power in Turkey

🇹🇷 Under the current constitution, Erdoğan cannot seek another term if elections are held in 2028, in accordance with the constitutional timetable.

🔖 OSW's Zuzanna Krzyżanowska has more insight ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Forging a nationalist model army. The political prospects of the Azov Movement In September 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree awarding the rank of brigadier general to Andriy Biletskyi, one of the most influential and prominent leaders of the Ukrainian nationali...

Forging a nationalist model army. The political prospects of the Azov Movement

Preceding Russia’s full-scale invasion, the ‘Azov’ Regiment developed modern military training standards and new ideological foundations for the formation
By Krzysztof Nieczypor ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

A grim reality and a brighter future: Ukrainian public sentiment in the fifth year of the war At the outset of the fifth year of the war, Ukrainian society continues to demonstrate resilience and a willingness to resist the aggressor. Russia’s initiative on the front line and the massive aeria...

A grim reality and a brighter future: Ukrainian public sentiment in the fifth year of the war

At the outset of the fifth year of the war, Ukrainian society continues to demonstrate resilience and a willingness to resist the aggressor.

By @vonJedrysiak ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Iran after three weeks of war: a paradoxical advantage in a war of attrition Since 28 February, the United States and Israel have been carrying out attacks on Iran with the aim of neutralising its military capabilities and triggering the collapse of its political system. Altho...

🔵 Iran after three weeks of war: a paradoxical advantage in a war of attrition

🔵 In military terms, the 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱 possess overwhelming superiority. 🇮🇷 is unable to secure its own territory, but can still impose costs on its adversaries.

🔵 By OSW's Krzysztof Strachota ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Chaos is a blessing: the attack on Iran and the future of sanctions on Russian oil The fall in Russia’s oil and gas revenues observed since mid-2025, driven by falling global oil prices and a strong rouble, has deepened further owing to steep discounts applied to Russian crude in th...

➡️ Chaos is a blessing: the attack on Iran and the future of sanctions on Russian 🇷🇺 oil

➡️ A prolonged blockade of the Persian Gulf – lasting at least a month – would generate long-term benefits for Moscow by weakening sanctions pressure.

By OSW's Filip Rudnik ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Parliamentary elections in Slovenia: a close result with a slight advantage for the Freedom Movement In Slovenia’s parliamentary elections held on 22 March, the liberal Freedom Movement of Prime Minister Robert Golob emerged victorious with 28.62%, edging out Janez Janša’s conservative Slovenian Demo...

🔵Parliamentary elections in Slovenia 🇸🇮: a close result with a slight advantage for the Freedom Movement

🔵The near tie between the two largest parties, together with a fragmented parliament, will complicate coalition talks.

More by OSW's Michał Kucharski ⤵️
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Special Farming Operation? Protests in Russia. What is the Kremlin hiding? YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

🔵Farmers are protesting across Russia 🇷🇺

➡️Authorities are exterminating livestock on a massive scale, but only in smaller, privately owned farms - often without clear evidence of disease.

📽️Our video explains what might be behind these actions⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmEX...

Kazakhstan’s new constitution: preparations for succession and the façade of democratisation On 15 March, Kazakhstan’s citizens voted in a referendum to adopt a new constitution, with 87% of voters supporting the measure, and official turnout standing at 73%. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev i...

🔵Kazakhstan’s 🇰🇿new constitution: preparations for succession and the façade of democratisation

➡️Under the new provisions, Kazakhstan’s president will gain broader powers to appoint senior state officials.
🔵By Daria Zielińska ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Germany and nuclear deterrence: dialogue with France while preserving US guarantees In an article published on 13 February in the bimonthly Foreign Affairs and in remarks delivered during the Munich Security Conference, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) confirmed that Germany and Franc...

Germany and nuclear deterrence: dialogue with France while preserving US guarantees

🇩🇪For Germany, nuclear deterrence within NATO provided by the🇺🇸United States remains crucial.

Lidia Gibadło & Justyna Gotkowska have more⤵️
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Trump’s deportation policy: electoral consequences and social tensions Internal tensions have been rising in the United States over the strategy to combat illegal immigration adopted by the Donald Trump administration. Several factors have contributed to this situation, ...

Trump’s deportation policy: electoral consequences and social tensions

Recent polls indicate that US🇺🇸voters hold a negative view of the practices employed by the immigration services.The events in Minneapolis have worsened this perception.

By OSW's Andrzej Kohut ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

➡️Germany and the ETS: yes to softening, no to dismantling

🟢Opinion polls clearly show that climate protection has fallen down the list of public concerns in 🇩🇪 Germany.

🟢OSW's Michał Kędzierski has all the details⤵️
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🇺🇸USA: the consequences of rising oil prices

🔵The US announced a 30-day suspension of Russian oil sanctions, but this is unlikely to exert significant downward pressure on global oil prices as🇷🇺crude is already present on the market.
Andrzej Kohut has more⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

No breakthrough as planned: the current state of Russia-Belarus integration

🔵Whenever Belarus signals the possibility of engaging in a limited dialogue with the West, 🇷🇺responds by increasing pressure on Minsk.

Kamil Kłysiński has more⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

What counts is the present: Israel’s alliance with the European right

For Israel🇮🇱, the European right has become a useful partner in its dispute with the liberal international order and with an increasingly critical European public opinion.

By OSW's Marek Matusiak ⤵️
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...