Ready or not?

The state pension age starts to rise today

Here’s what it means for today’s 60-somethings

cradle2grave.substack.com/p/ready-or-not

Good neighbours? Will new policies enable the NHS and local authorities to build integrated neighbourhood health and care services?

Will new policies create joined-up neighbourhood health and care services in England?

Maybe. But we’re still running health and care in silos

My substack post (reacting to the DHSC plan for neighbourhood health)

cradle2grave.substack.com/p/good-neigh...

Across all these measures poverty numbers are lower than they would have been under last year’s methodology (we’ve been over-counting up till now).

Over-counting seems to have been greater for pensioners than children/working-age

Households Below Average Income (HBAI) statistics Statistics on the number and percentage of people living in low-income households in the UK.

New stats:

- Overall poverty up
- Child poverty up
- Working-age adult poverty up
- Pensioner poverty up

Quite small rises (not statistically significant) but this is what Labour inherited and must now address

(relative, AHC)

www.gov.uk/government/c...

Pension pain I've just completed research showing who isn't saving for a pension - and who isn't saving enough

NEW POST

3 sobering facts about pension saving today:

- ONE THIRD of people in work aren’t saving into a pension at all

- HALF of 25-54s are not on track for an adequate retirement income

- Typical pension savings for workers at 50 are just £27,000

cradle2grave.substack.com/p/pension-pain

These are sobering findings

Lots for the Pensions Commission to chew on. And ministers too (help for 40-54s is needed this parliament)

But we can also be positive:
- The UK has made progress over the last 20 years: half of 25-54s are on track!
- It's never too late to save, if we help people do it

It is then no surprise that 40-54s have worse expectations for their future retirement living standards than either younger or older age-groups.

They are also less engaged with their pensions than 18-34s (I was surprised by that)

THIRD, we looked at prospects for people aged 40 to 54 today.

The median pension wealth of someone in work around age 50 is just £27k (again, excluding those with DB pensions).

That doesn't buy you much of a retirement income. And lots of sub-groups fare event worse - eg renters, part-timers

People who are LIKELY to have an adequate retirement income:
- Lifetime low earners who own their home in retirement

People who are UNLIKELY:
- Lifetime high earners who own their home in retirement
- Anyone who rents in retirement (mainly those with lower lifetime earnings)

Under this measure your future income is adequate if it:

1. Secures the MINIMUM a single pensioner needs; and
2. REPLACES a specified percentage of an individual's pre-retirement earnings; and
3. Covers the costs of RENT if you go on to rent in retirement

SECOND, we identify who's off track for an adequate retirement income.

To do this we created a new measure of retirement adequacy called MRR - Minimum, Replacement, Rent.

Our modelling of government datasets shows that only HALF of 25-54s (without a DB pension) are on track to meet this standard

People mainly say they are not saving for financial reasons (no surprise there). But they also mention attitudinal and behavioural factors.

And the structure of AE obviously plays a role - self-employed, young adults and low weekly earners all miss out.

Three sobering headlines from my new report published today by Public First and Legal & General.

FIRST, we look at 'who isn't saving' and find that over half of people not in a pension work for an SME. People with high costs (eg renters, singles, Londoners) are especially unlikely to save.

1. ONE THIRD of people in work aren't saving into a pension

2. HALF of workers aged 25 to 54 are not on track for an adequate retirement income*

3. A worker around the age of 50 typically has just £27k in their pension*

* excludes those with DB pensions
🧵
group.legalandgeneral.com/en/about-us/...

What is the Blair inner dialogue that leads him to say these things? Does he really think it advances causes he cares for or his own personal standing? Or is it an itch he just can’t help scratch?

From FT comments

If I had worked in the Number 10 that had cut childcare bills in half or more for nearly all families, I might not add “the cost of childcare” onto the list of things hitting middle earners.

Keir Starmer’s response to the Gorton and Denton debacle should be a government that truly, finally, reflects him | Tom Baldwin In the past he has been urged to follow strategies that don’t really match his core beliefs. That’s changing, as it must, because he knows the clock is ticking, says the prime minister’s biographer, T...

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

This is so telling about Labour factionalism and the mindset of (some of) the ‘serious’ people in and around the party establishment

Labour needs to be a catch-all party while the electorate is fracturing and be led by someone who can confidently articulate finesse. Mission impossible?

Avoid doing things for voters who aren't in the places that will swing it and/or won't vote for you anyway - whether you're Blue Labour or Soft Left

Stay focused on big tent politics that unites Labour's coalition, avoid issues that divide it

i.e. competence. living standards. public services

This defeat is a big deal and LAB needs to think hard about strategy and positioning. But there is a risk of over-simplifying.

The next GE will be won in suburbs and small cities that are neither Red Wall nor inner city.

LAB needs to retain pre-24 Tory voters AND win back its Green-tempted core

Interesting trail from Ian Cheshire of the Pensions Commission at @standardlifeuk.bsky.social event

The commission will publish modelling based on BOTH the state pension with a triple lock AND a less generous future state pension

(even though triple lock not formally in scope)

Does this change everything or nothing?

- target voters?
- policy?
- party management?
- government coordination?
- story telling?
- why Keir wants to be PM?

Realistically the best case for Starmer (and I'm not saying this is likely) is "Theresa May after Hill and Timothy resigned": complete change in strategy that allows for better governance setting up better conditions for his successor in the next GE

A good example of how strangely unpolitical this government is at times.
The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions.
But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No.

economist.com/britain/2026...

Adult social care’s contribution to the Neighbourhood Health Service in England | Andrew Harrop Public First is delighted to have supported Skills for Care and its partners to produce this new paper on Adult Social Care’s contribution to the Neighbourhood Health Service in England. The statemen...

What is the role of Adult Social Care in building a Neighbourhood Health Service?

I had the pleasure of working out the answer, working with the brilliant Sir David Pearson, and writing this statement published today by Skills for Care and partners

www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...

Fascinating (and worrying) to see a false meme derived from overseas data & social media culture get so much traction… never mind the UK evidence

🧵 on new analysis w/ @resolutionfoundation.org on why if Universal Credit is to be improved it is time to ‘listen and learn’ to experts like@changingrealities.bsky.social

For more on why govts should move from a ‘test and learn’ to a ‘listen and learn’ approach 📚 academic.oup.com/ooec/article...

Small business, big risk I've just completed research for the ABI that shows how hundreds of thousands of UK small businesses are going without insurance for the risks they face

NEW POST

When I went freelance in 2024, I didn’t think at all about insuring my new business.

It turns out I was not alone.

cradle2grave.substack.com/p/small-busi...