Political accession first: A new pact for Ukraine to join the EU – European Council on Foreign Relations European leaders should adopt a new approach—the PACT model—for Ukraine’s future accession to the EU. This model will help them facilitate the peace process whi

A faster #EU accession for #Ukraine—solution or Pandora’s box?

But can the EU move faster without undermining its own rules?

Leo Litra lays out the case and how to overcome the dilemmas: https://bit.ly/4sC9oKm

From good to not good: The impact of the war in Iran on Russia – European Council on Foreign Relations Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long te

Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term.

@jkobzova.bsky.social explains how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly: https://bit.ly/4tK0sDN

From “good” to “not good” — and how to get there faster. The weaker Moscow’s hand is on #Ukraine, European security, energy or defence, the higher the chances for Europe to escape yet another Faustian bargain with #Russia.

Political accession first: A new pact for Ukraine to join the EU – European Council on Foreign Relations European leaders should adopt a new approach—the PACT model—for Ukraine’s future accession to the EU. This model will help them facilitate the peace process whi

European leaders should adopt a new approach—the PACT model—for Ukraine’s future accession to the EU. This model will help them facilitate the peace process while also giving confidence to their electorates.

Latest by Leo Litra ⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/poli...

From good to not good: The impact of the war in Iran on Russia – European Council on Foreign Relations Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long te

Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. @jkobzova.bsky.social suggests how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly ⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/from...

Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive – European Council on Foreign Relations Europeans must urgently implement a “fast energy” programme to speed up access to energy to power AI—and remain competitive in the world.

13/13: The choice is binary: treat this as the emergency it is, or cede the AI era to America and China by default. Read the full brief by Nicu Popescu & Alan Riley here.

ecfr.eu/publication/...

12/13: But it needs an emergency "fast energy" programme: slash permitting times, deploy every available technology (renewables, nuclear, gas - no exclusions), and drive down costs through Emissions-Trading System (ETS) reform and long-term LNG contracts.

11/13: Europe has the tools to fight back - capital, industry, a 450m-person market.

10/13: If it does not close the gap, Europe will import AI capability, export industrial competitiveness and cede geopolitical influence in a domain that will shape defence, health, manufacturing and services.

9/13: Europe is quickly becoming an energy-constrained AI follower. Part of the problem is slow decision making and construction.

8/13: Mario Draghi has warned that Europe risks losing ten times more renewable energy generation by 2040 than we lose today because of bottlenecks in the grid. If we don't act now, we won't be able to keep up tomorrow.

7/13: The numbers are brutal. European wholesale gas prices are 3–5x higher than in the US. And our grids are gasping for air; Spain had to physically cap new renewable energy production because the grid couldn't absorb it.

6/13: Europe will need a lot of electricity, and has a strong interest not to drive prices even higher than they are, which would have even more devastating consequences for European politics.

5/13: Both China and the US see AI's energy needs as a matter of national security, and the lack of energy resources for AI as a national emergency. Europe, meanwhile, is still filing paperwork.

4/13: China added 429GW of power in 2024 alone, which is equivalent to more than a third of the entire US grid. America is consequently bulldozing its own regulations through executive orders to keep up.

3/13: AI runs on electricity, and lots of it. A single low-quality AI video uses as much energy as is needed to run a microwave for an hour.

2/13: Chips, data centres and algorithms matter. But they are nothing without electricity. The AI race will be won by the power with the best power grid.

1/13: ESP co-director Nicu Popescu's latest policy brief with Alan Riley: Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive. The main points:

From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age – European Council on Foreign Relations Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the tim

Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time is to fight back, write Will Brown, @jkobzova.bsky.social, @nicupopescu.bsky.social and José Ignacio Torreblanca.

https://bit.ly/4bebWIe

Friends-and-family diplomacy: Lessons for Europe from Gaza and Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europ

Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms, write Julien Barnes-Dacey, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien.

https://bit.ly/40rJAFu

From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age – European Council on Foreign Relations Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the tim

This brief argues that Europe should be ready to go on the offensive in the informational, cyber, financial & kinetic domains to defend its democratic societies against a growing number of hostile actors & authoritarian states, especially Russia. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Germany's Armoured Brigade 45 assumed command of NATO's Multinational Battlegroup Lithuania. The brigade's two other battalions were formally assigned last week; they will arrive in Lithuania by the end of 2027.

For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

Map of the northern hemisphere depicting possible flight paths of Russian ballistic and cruise missiles across the Arctic to targets in the continental United States.

Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic ecfr.eu/article/nuuk...

The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.

Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic – European Council on Foreign Relations Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe co

@rafaelloss.bsky.sociall writes "Greenland’s geography is a critical piece of Trump’s 'Golden Dome'. Alliance relations might be strained: but using NATO to improve US-European cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode."
🔗👇 https://bit.ly/3NZwsnP

Trump has released a new National Defense Strategy (NDS). @rafaelloss.bsky.social points out that "One red thread weaves throughout American rhetoric and actions: unburdening the US from defending Europe." This calls for Europeans to do three things now.

👉 Read more: https://bit.ly/3NG6zcD

📢 ECFR is here in Nuuk, Greenland!

Katrine Westgaard argues that Europe now has an important opportunity to strengthen its political and economic ties with Greenland. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

Keep up to date with ECFR's research on Greenland!
👉 https://bit.ly/4jU1tWl

Putin’s longest war: Calling time on Russia’s endurance myth – European Council on Foreign Relations Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, with incomparably smaller gains. The West should stop

"The notion that “time is on the Russian side” betrays a lack of strategic patience and, even more importantly, squandered opportunities to exploit Moscow’s growing structural vulnerabilities", write @jkobzova.bsky.social and Leo Litra.
@ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

https://bit.ly/3LLfQzs

Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland – European Council on Foreign Relations Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of

Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

ecfr.eu/article/arct...

The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency – European Council on Foreign Relations How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency?  ECFR’s 2024 polling  reveal

📆 Save the date!
📢 Register: https://bit.ly/4ps9BhL
How is the world reassessing power one year into Trump’s presidency? Join our webinar about ECFR’s new 21‑country survey data and find out shifting alliances, polarity, and views on the EU’s global role.

📍 15 January, 17:30 (CET)

EU enlargement standoff: will veto-free membership redefine unity or deepen divisions?

Engjellushe Morina writes in @brusselstimes.com that EU enlargement is caught in a veto-driven stalemate that risks deepening divisions across the Union.

"With clear timelines and political courage, the EU can enlarge without compromising the equality that defines it."
https://bit.ly/3Z9T5Iv