The implication from the chart is that the stock market and real economy are disconnected from one another. But the only thing driving that inference is a loose correlation that exists in levels terms over two cycles. There's no fundamental reason reason why that correlation should hold.
www.ft.com/content/7227...
Just because two lines look correlated, you don't need to put them on a chart together!
That's right, I've resurrected a meme from 10 years ago.
⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀ 🤠
📈📊📉
📈 📊 📉
👇🏽 📈📉 👇🏽
📊 📊
📊 📊
👢 👢
Howdy, I'm the Sheriff of Chartcrimes round these parts and I'm here to lock you up.
🤣 And yet people do that too!
Exactly! It’s a classic coordination problem.
The school that one of my kids goes to has a no phones policy. Works well. Except all their homework is put on MS Teams which they need their phones (or another device) to access. Makes no sense.
RWC?
I'd say it's actually worse than that. Prices are partly being kept down due to the expectation of a near-term easing in supply. It's incentivising a run-down of inventory and delaying of any additional purchases. So it that off ramp doesn't arrive, the crunch is going to be even more severe.
Ironic how someone introducing themselves as an alpha male just makes you think 'loser'.
This was most apparent in the IMF's scenarios in last week's WEO. An 'adverse' scenario of oil at $100/bbl this year and $75 next. A 'severe' scenario of ... $110/bbl this year and $125 next.
Nah bruv, try $200/bbl.
So UK private sector regular grew by just 2.9% in February versus a year earlier. Inflation? Well that was 3.0% in the same month. Not sure we need to search too hard for the causes of the vibecession over here.
What's the worst piece of advice anyone has ever given you?
Also, get well soon.
This was a joke by the way. I obviously don’t believe that if you’re reading this, FSB.
That all those Russian politicians who fell out of windows didn’t actually fall.
Less than one a day is just not un oeuf.
Thanks!
It’s the balance between inflation and growth that I really struggle with. 0.4 ppts off growth but 2.8 ppts on inflation in the severe scenario just makes no sense to me.
Do you know where/if the whole text is accessible?
New Fermi paradox: the high probability of AI creating opportunities for growth but with a total lack of evidence any profits.
It was in an email circular or something, I think, but might've been referencing that article.
Saw something referencing the US manufacturing renaissance earlier and ... sure, if you like I suppose?
Exciting news!
OK so personal news klaxon - from the summer I will be working full time on my own company Crosscurrent Capital to incubate a trade I've been working on. I also plan to launch a (separate) nonprofit where I hope to provide financial education (& lean on a lot of people much smarter than me to help).
Very nice!
Getting crapped on is good luck!
What’s the amp?
You’re gonna have to tell us the recipe now, y’know.
Basically agree with this. But I also think Iran wants cash too and probably gains, marginally, from stretching out negotiations.
Where do you stand on the idea that military spending can often help the development of technologies that can then be repurposed for other uses?