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Posts by Julia Gelatt

Trump Restrictions on Legal Immigration Could Sharply Reduce U.S. Population Growth While much attention has focused on its efforts to tackle unauthorized immigration, the Trump administration has been methodically shutting down a wide array of legal immigration pathways and slowing immigration case processing. With U.S. birth rates declining and the population aging, the consequences could tip the U.S. population into stagnation—or even decline for the first time since 1918.

While getting less attention that ICE's actions, the Trump administration's growing barricade of restrictions on legal immigration could drastically lower immigration levels this year, & potentially tip the country into population decline. My new short-read details the accumulating barriers:

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Trump administration scaling back asylum crackdown enacted after D.C. National Guard shooting, sources say The unprecedented move amounted to an indefinite suspension of all asylum requests filed outside of immigration court, regardless of the applicant's nationality.

Big news that USCIS is resuming affirmative asylum processing for applicants EXCEPT those from the 39 travel ban countries. www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...

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The Trump Administration’s Immigration Policies Encounter Resistance in the Courts Federal judges have provided significant opposition to the Trump administration’s immigration policies during its second term. The courts have halted or slowed a number of administration initiatives, ...

It has been one year since the Trump admin invoked the Alien Enemies Act and began targeting international students with a novel provision of the INA but thus far faced resistance in the courts with these and other policies.

Read more here:
www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trum...

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USCIS is truly NOT keeping up with new immigration applications being filed. As of September 2025, even before USCIS committed itself to revisiting likely millions of past decisions, their pile of unopened applications - the frontlog - was 248,000(!) That's up from ZERO in December 2024.

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Escalation of ICE Operations Emboldens State and Local Lawmakers to Constrain Its Operations The ramp-up of federal immigration enforcement during the second Trump term has prompted sharp responses from state and local governments, with some limiting cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), or barring agents' wearing ...

Actions by state & local governments in the wake of high-profile operations in Minneapolis typify a recent wave of opposition to aspects of federal immigration enforcement

Muzaffar Chishti & @kathleenbush.bsky.social explain how ⤵️

https://bit.ly/4aUjcZo

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Immigration Court Drops Case Against Tufts Student Rumeysa Ozturk The Turkish national had been arrested by plainclothes federal officers outside her apartment.

an immigration court has dropped the deportation case against grad student Rümeysa Öztürk, after trying to revoke her student visa over an op-ed she’d co-written in a Tufts University student paper.
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

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A sharp decline in border arrivals, the end of Biden-era parole programs, increased deportations of noncitizens from inside the U.S., and more-recent restrictions to legal immigration have likely led to a sharp decrease in net international migration. Decreases in job growth will naturally follow.

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This is why many argue for graduated penalties for immigration violations, with the penalty tailored to the severity of the violation. Under current U.S. law, it's often deportation or nothing.

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In a @kff.org survey from fall '25, nearly half of likely undocumented immigrant adults, and one in seven who are lawfully present, said they had avoided medical care since January '25 due to immigration-related concerns -- recent increases in ICE presence could further exacerbate these challenges

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Haitian TPS holders had to wait all day to learn if they would still have protections and work authorization as of tomorrow. This decision keeps their TPS in place for now. Almost guaranteed that the administration will appeal.

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BREAKING: We're challenging the Trump administration’s sweeping suspension of immigrant visa processing for people from 75 countries.

This discriminatory, nationality-based ban on legal immigration strips families and working people of the process guaranteed by law.

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The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.

Essential context for discussions about the future of immigration: If the country loses immigrants, on net, this year or next, the U.S. population will begin to shrink for the first time in the nation's history. (1918 may have been an exception.) Gift link below

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2017 research showed high-profile immigration enforcement actions can increase low-birthweight births. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28115577/ Just one of the ways that indiscriminate enforcement tactics leave indelible effects on children's well-being. For more, see my colleague Valerie Lacarte's piece

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FWIW, immigrants who are not "lawfully present" are already barred from purchasing insurance through ACA exchanges, even at full cost, as well as being barred from subsidies for ACA insurance premiums.

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They ‘Had Done Everything Right.’ ICE Detained Them Anyway.

Do any taxpayers think this is a good use of their money? Arresting vetted refugees with no criminal record who have applied for green cards, flying them to TX, putting them in ICE detention, interviewing them, and releasing them with an approved green card?? Why? www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/u...

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Trump’s ‘Maximum Chaos’ in Immigration Leaves Employers Hanging Employers are struggling to navigate an evolving patchwork of unpredictable Trump administration policies disrupting entry to the US from nearly 100 countries.

An emerging patchwork of Trump visa policies is blocking entry for students, immigrant talent, and family of American citizens. It's the flipside of a mass deportation campaign in the US interior that's using any available tool to restrict new immigrants or foreign visitors.

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With news of ICE's focus on Maine, recommending my colleagues @colleenputzelkav.bsky.social & Valerie Lacarte's profile of ME's small immigrant population. ME's immigrants are a mix of long-settled, well-integrated folks, and newcomers from diverse origins, bolstering the workforce of an aging state

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Beyond “Shock and Awe”: Immigration Actions in the First Year under Trump 2.0 MPI analysts assess the immigration actions taken during President Trump's first year back in office, detail the legal state of play, and analyze the actual effects on the labor market, U.S. communiti...

If you missed our @migrationpolicy.bsky.social webinar yesterday on Trump's immigration policies, check out the recording here:

@nickmiroff.bsky.social talked about the administration challenging the value of immigration & the role of immigrants in our society

3 months ago 5 5 1 0
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Beyond “Shock and Awe”: Immigration Actions in the First Year under Trump 2.0 MPI analysts assess the immigration actions taken during President Trump's first year back in office, detail the legal state of play, and analyze the actual effects on the labor market, U.S. communiti...

TOMORROW: Beyond Shock & Awe: Immigration Actions in the 1st year under Trump 2.0

Join @kathleenbush.bsky.social & @migrationpolicy.bsky.social colleagues Muz Chisti and Doris Meissner as we unravel the sweeping changes to immigration policy this last year

www.migrationpolicy.org/events/immig...

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Immigrants sue federal government over pause in processing cases The lawsuit targets U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), which halted the processing of green cards, citizenship applications, and asylum petitions last month.

And in response, immigrants affected by USCIS' pauses have sued: www.nbcboston.com/news/local/i...

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DHS pauses immigration applications for an additional 20 countries The Department of Homeland Security is pausing immigration applications from 20 additional countries following increased scrutiny on people who seek legal pathways for immigrating to the U.S.

As the US government expands it's travel ban, USCIS is also expanding its pause on immigration applications and its re-review of green cards, asylum, citizenship, and other benefits it granted since 2021. Applications from all 39 countries are now subject to the pause and re-review.

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Likewise! Happy new year!

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The Trump admin says it aims to file 100-200 denaturalization cases per month, a huge increase. But these cases are hard to file and win, and require a lot of DOJ resources, and the DOJ is incredibly stretched thin already. So we’ll see; I have serious doubts about their ability to do this.

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USCIS Increases Screening, Vetting of Aliens Working in U.S. | USCIS U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services updated its Policy Manual to reduce the maximum validity period for Employment Authorization Documents (EAD) for certain categories of aliens.

USCIS said yesterday they're shortening the validity period for work permits for asylum & green card applicants + others from 5 yrs to 18 months. Combined with USCIS' slowing processing, & the end of auto-extensions while people renew, this will cause MANY people to churn in & out of the workforce.

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Specifically, OMB finished its review of a proposed rule on "Employment Authorization Reform for Asylum Applicants." The only detail we have is the short description in the government's list of planned regulatory changes -- the "Unified Agenda": www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eA... (2/2)

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Heads up: Right before Thanksgiving, a proposed regulation to restrict asylum applicants' access to work authorization cleared a key government review step. That means we could see a proposed regulatory change soon. But no details yet on what it might do. (1/2)

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Raises serious questions about how they will staff this re-review, and how that will affect all other application process at the agency.

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USCIS published a policy memo declaring (1) a pause on all affirmative asylum decisions, (2) a pause on all applications (green card, citizenship, change of visa, etc) for the 19 travel ban countries, and (3) a re-review of all benefits granted to people from the 19 countries who came since 1/20/21

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The Trump admin has paused all immigration and naturalization processes for people from one of the 19 travel ban countries; including Cuba and Venezuela.

Even people who fully passed the citizenship exam are having their cases put on hold, just inches from the finish line.

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Belatedly noticing that the State Dept. updated its refugee resettlement data through October. In February-October 2025, the US resettled just 506 refugees(!) 342 of those (2/3) were South Africans. www.rpc.state.gov/admissions-a...

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