My working scenario is lower rates on short maturities but not on long maturities.

The west happily sold blue collar workers 25 years ago on the altar of shareholder profits.

Now China is going after higher value added sectors. Will somebody in Brussels or Washington do something about it?

FT alphaville, do you fry your eggs in butter or olive oil?

China has added a whole united states worth of electrical capacity since 2021, and then another 9% on top (FT)

There’s almost always an ever increasing, record amount of money in the economy.

Fertility rates have fallen below replacement level in high-income countries, which is why a (well regulated) immigration policy is necessary in order to maintain the infrastructure, the tax base, and therefore social security.

FT:

Big Tech companies are on track to dominate borrowing in the US bond market (…)

By 2030, half of the 10 largest borrowers in the US investment-grade corporate bond market will be so-called hyperscalers.

The global system has always been dysfunctional, and will always be. It’s just that the nature of the problems change from one era to another.

Last 150 years? Colonialism, world war 1, rise of totalitarianism, world war 2, cold war.

The 90s were relatively calm but that’s it.

5y return on splv is 29% or 5.22% annualized. And there’s an additional 2% dividend. Not too bad.

Some of the proceeds could go into gold, but useless, inert metals don’t make for great investments on the long term.

On a micro level some sectors are severely affected. On a macro level thr extra taxes amount to 1% of the GDP. Significant but not earth shattering.

China's assault on German car makers isn't about exporting cars to Europe. It's about exporting cars to EM and driving Germany out of those markets. Chart below shows how China is taking over car imports across EM. EU tariffs can't protect Germany from that.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/chinas-ass...

It’s just a consequence of the increasing weight of the magnificent 7, plus some of their coming-of-age little tech brothers.

Ten to fifteen megacorps are pushing the index up, but most legacy companies are doing, well not necessarily bad, but not as good.

L

Comment ça, la banque refuse?

Interesting, but the indicator doesn’t work if there’s a permadove at the head of the fed.

The euro has been a pain for the EU but it also puts considerable pressure on EU countries to push integration forward and make the EU work, basically forever attaching them, which I suspect is one of the main reason why european federalists pushed for it.

les rendements europeens sont structurellement inferieurs a cause
1-une demographie plus fatiguée
2-une economie moins dynamique et qui a largement rate le virage high tech et
3-une banque centrale qui est obligee de maintenir des taux bas du a la dette publique tres elevee de certains pays

Ca ne reflete pas forcement une mauvaise gestion des banques

The likelihood of a December rate cut is increasingly low, and the lack of data is certainly not helping the fed. IMO the October cut came too early given that unemployment is still in the low 4% range, while core inflation is not showing any signs of abating.

Ces donnees proviennent du systeme swift. Les chinois ont bouge sur leur propre systeme.

La majorite du commerce exterieur chinois se fait en RMB desormais, le graphe ci dessus est trompeur parce qu’il ne capture pas la totalite des paiements internationaux.

The Nobels are attributed by a committee designated by the Norwegian parliament.

Having a single monetary policy for countries with different economic cycles means that some have to be sacrificed on the altar of German exports. Fiscal transfer is how you make that system work.

There’s a strong case to be made that Spain was not fiscally irresponsible, it fell victime to a overly dovish monetary policy tailored for Germany. It’s the price to be paid for having an ECB putting Germany’s economy uber all.

“We are in a bubble but don’t worry here are two very crude indicators to time it out”

China. India.
You are thinking in US centric term. Gold is a global asset.

Besides what would be the point? Currencies need to go up or down because of reasons. You will always have to defend that peg, in both directions, and that’s going to create imbalances. Natural currency fluctuations allow imbalances to self resolve.

If you peg your currency to the dollar and you’re fiscally disciplined enough to maintain the fair value of your currency (lol) you might get a way with it. But you wouldn’t need a peg in this case.

Europe can’t disengage from Russia, China and the US at the same time. And even if Europe focuses on itself, a good chunk of the european democracies are on the verge of falling to a similar illiberal process.

You might want to revisit the meaning of breaking.

Reddit, I like the format and the other ones seem to be less popular. That said bots combined with AI are going to be an increasing problem for reddit.