skill issue

Here's a bunch of charts on presidential approval and gas prices.
That's it, that's the piece!
(Plus some commentary on how a ceasefire with Iran could impact Trump's numbers.)

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-10...

Tbh I don’t think there’s a perfect way to compare a poll with 50% undecided share to an election result

happening soon! (and sorry for the boomer tag @davidnir.com )

LIVE PODCAST - Trump is underwater in every competitive House and Senate race elliott david pod pod

We are also streaming this live for the first time on YouTube, if that's your preferred platform. www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8cW...

LIVE SOON: Trump is underwater in every competitive House and Senate race Starting Apr 9 at 2:00 PM EDT

.@davidnir.com and I will be live on Substack recording the weekly Strength In Numbers podcast at 2:00 PM ET today. Touching on the latest special election results & how much to read into them, Trump popularity in the House, impeachment polling and subscriber Qs.

open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Generally I don't pay attention to approval swings that are inside the uncertainty interval and/or the result of just one pollster's trend line — or those that revert themselves after a couple days. Aggregation is a good safeguard against this most of the time, but not perfect!

The progressive landslide in Wisconsin Listen now | A Supreme Court flip headlines another extaordinary election night for Democrats

Joined The Downballot podcast this week to talk about Trump's approval in GOP districts and Senate seats open.substack.com/pub/thedownb...

Nice post from Arin. Raising the minimum wage in Florida, Arizona, Nebraska and Missouri led to higher wages for workers and had no measurable effect on employment

arindube.substack.com/p/these-repu...

Disapproval % moved down one point on average I think, and probably a mix of sampling noise and real movement. The YouGov/Econ poll showed a pretty big jump for example, but those numbers tend to zig and zag a bit

Trump Is Underwater in 104 House Districts Represented by Republicans Click on the map for the article

some more coverage of my Trump approval congressional district MRP www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Item...

I don't think that's right

Could be sampling noise. Changes on average have pretty much been within the MOE

guilty as charged

I used the margin from these surveys and extrapolated a bit for the DK share, since the polls were a bit outdated
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

no cents! hawking free wares!

FiftyPlusOne.news (@fiftyplusone.news) New polling averages at fiftyplusone.news

Polling averages! Get your polling averages here! bsky.app/profile/fift...

Kyle Kondik on the GOP’s Trump problem
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Live podcast recording Thursday at 2PM ET covering all the new polling on Trump, Iran, and the midterms — including my new analysis of Trump at the state and congressional district levels substack.com/@gelliottmor...

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle

In 103 qualifying special elections, Dems are now outperforming the 2024 presidential results by an average of 12.9 points. In 2017-18, it was 10.6 points.

But the *frequency* of overperformances has leapt, too. The GOP outperformed in 30% of '17-18 specials. This cycle, it's just 15%.

Big Board:

Only 8% of "moderates" actually want moderation Two new studies reveal very few voters want a genuinely centrist political party — and moderation's electoral payoff is smaller, riskier, and less reliable than its advocates suggest

Among many interesting things in @gelliottmorris.com's great analysis, it's nice to see the open-ended analysis replicate the classic "operationally more liberal, symbolically (self-ID) more conservative" leanings in the public, beyond substantial non-ideology.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...

If I'm a GOP member of Congress and I'm in this table, I would be worried about re-election — especially if Trump keeps doing what he's doing and I keep voting to let him www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...

The Iran ceasefire deal is obviously pretty bad for Trump and America, as others have pointed out. I have seen some people arguing that voters wanted a ceasefire, so Trump will get a ratings bounce from this. But I don't think you get a bounce for ending an unpopular war that you started

Subscribe to Strength In Numbers Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a ...

i think 4 articles in one day is a new record for me. you can support this work at gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Democrats just posted their biggest swings of the 2026 cycle in WI and GA YouTube video by G Elliott Morris

Also on YouTube, if that's your thing www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6q5...

Democrats just posted their biggest swings of the 2026 cycle in WI and GA Democrats did better in elections on Tuesday than they did on average in 2025 and 2026 so far

Democrats just posted their biggest (in terms of math and political impact) election swings of the 2026 cycle in Wisconsin and Georgia www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...

The Democratic candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race beat the polls by 13 percentage points. This follows an underestimation of Democrats in the 2025 statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey. It's reasonable to question whether RV generic ballot polls are also underestimating Democrats

yeah

this was FASCINATING

(if ever there were a time to share my data with your member of congress, now would be that time)