The growth outlook for the United States is muted.
Economists estimate GDP growth for the next 3 years will be significantly below White House estimates.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Trump’s budget will dramatically increase our debt.
He’s hiding behind unrealistic growth assumptions, but the evidence is clear.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
The Trump budget is historic.
For the first time in recent history, the government would spend a larger share of its annual budget on defense than on domestic programs.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Trump’s huge military budget would be the largest in American history—more than WWII.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
The Trump budget is war first, American people last.
It explodes military funding and brings departments like Labor, Education, and Agriculture to historic lows.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
The absurdity of the Iran war is epitomized by the Trump administration’s decision to partially ease sanctions on Iran and Russia, allowing both countries to rake in huge profits.
Russia is set to earn three times more per month from its energy resources.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
The only way to stop an economic spiral is for Trump to end the war and for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
The longer he delays, the longer Americans will struggle with higher oil—and gas—prices.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc.
With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this year.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Past oil shocks had massive effects on our economy and politics.
And the current one—caused by Trump’s War in Iran—is nearly two times larger.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Economists worldwide have increased their inflation forecasts for the United States in the wake of the Iran War’s impact on energy markets.
The OECD estimates inflation could reach 4.2% this year.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
The Strait of Hormuz is the critical artery for global oil supply, particularly for Asia.
The fallout from the War will only end when the oil and gas of the Gulf reaches the global economy—which can only happen if Trump ends the War and Iran reopens the Strait.
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war.
Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%.
@wsj.com
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American.
The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit.
@piie.com
Trump hasn’t delivered on his promises to working Americans.
In his 1st year, the gap in spending growth between the wealthy, middle class & poor has widened, and income growth for the rich has surpassed everyone else by the largest margin since 2015.
Source: Bank of America
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war.
The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all G20 economies.
CC @oecd-ocde.bsky.social
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment.
In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up.
His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners.
@taxpolicycenter.bsky.social
US wealth inequality has skyrocketed in recent decades.
We need more focus building wealth for American families in an equitable matter — and less on wars, tariffs, and ICE chaos.
CC @wsj.com
President Trump’s approval rating has hit its lowest point in his second administration as the war takes its toll on his standing with the electorate.
CC @reuters.com
Suspicious high-volume trades before major POTUS announcements have been a disturbing pattern during the Trump admin.
Monday was no different as nearly half a billion $ in oil futures trading occurred irregularly just 15 minutes before Trump’s comments pointing to de-escalation in Iran.
Source: FT
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Rising gas prices caused by the war are already hurting Americans’ bottom line — in both expensive and affordable states.
On average, Americans are paying almost $1 more per gallon than they were last month.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next).
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
The Fed bumped up its inflation expectation in March, finding that that the war will increase costs for consumers, as higher oil and gas prices filter through the economy.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Treasury yields have been up dramatically since the war started as investors fear the effects of inflation.
While Trump’s announcement yesterday produced a quick drop in yields, Iran’s denial that talks are underway leaves lots of uncertainty.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Stocks have been cratering since Trump started his reckless war.
Yesterday, he tried to reverse course, but markets are still worried.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
Unemployment ticked back upwards to 4.4% in February.
The US shed 92K jobs from its payrolls in February, significantly undershooting expectations.
One of Trump’s favorite lies has been that he’s sent gas prices below $2/gallon. That was never true, but it’s even less believable now that his attack on Iran has sent prices skyrocketing.
The breakeven rate, which captures the market’s inflation expectations, rose on the news of Trump’s Iran attack.
My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart