A band of severe storms has been producing damaging wind reports along the south shore of Lake Erie this afternoon, with winds gusts of 71 mph at Hopkins and Burke Lakefront airports in Cleveland. More on the severe wx risks currently & through the week
open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
It seems clear that the Trump Administration is working to reduce federal science regardless of Congressional intent and support, with actions ranging from dismantling USFS science programs to just dribbling budget allocations to agencies like NSF, NOAA and NIH. More: tinyurl.com/bdex4tdu
BREAKING: University Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) files suit against NSF, OMB, NOAA and DOC to halt alleged "violations of the Constitution and Administrative Procedure Act" undertaken by agencies to dismantle Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
A meteor lit up the skies and caused a sonic boom over the Great Lakes region this morning - I take a dive into how meteorological remote sensing tools are used to track these events. Also an overview of recent and ongoing impact weather, including the historic Western heatwave. tinyurl.com/5xd6bv8j
After Gov. Whitmer called for a fed investigation into the watches/forecasts for the SW MI tornadoes, myself & my other retired NWS "Debris Baller" colleagues felt called to dive back into the event & explain what changes/improvements we think the event shows are needed. youtu.be/Pb69qX65QIU?...
LONG post today, highlighted by Science article that dives into the NCAR dismantling process, but also contains a ton of weather info on insane rain in Hawaii, insane heat in the Southwest, a potentially insane blizzard in the Great Lakes, and more! tinyurl.com/4xhf9eyr
500 mb height forecast from the European ensemble model for midday next Thursday
Climatological record of 500 mb heights at Tuscon from SPC, with an orange dot showing the forecast from the model.
The latest run of the European ensemble model has 500 mb heights a week from now around 5960 m over southern AZ. To give some perspective on how insane that is, that would be the orange dot on the SPC graph of Tucson historical 500 mb heights (red line is all-time highest)
Been a busy last week for the new "Debris Ballers" podcast. Today a look at the Kankakee, IL supercell that produced state record giant hail and a long track, intense tornado. Take 15 min to see what three experienced (i.e., old) NOAA/NWS meteorologists have to say about it.
youtu.be/4lmd99XTwiM
NOAA is being pushed by Congress to push out tornado warning lead times with new research - but high impact tornado events in IL and MI over the last week reinforce to me we are not doing everything we can TODAY to maximize lead times. Taking another look at both events: tinyurl.com/49kb8d8t
Nearly 1M customers now without power in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic due to incredible gradient winds, recent 85 mph gust at Cleveland. Video briefing on current weather and multiple major impact events next 7-10 days, including Great Lakes blizzard and western heat. tinyurl.com/ytj27zrd
Map of power outages across the US from PowerOutage.us
About 1.25M customers are without power tonight per PowerOutage.us - ~1M in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic due to widespread high winds with numerous locations gusting >70 mph this afternoon. Meanwhile, more than 100K customers are out in Hawai'i due to storms/high winds with kona low.
youtu.be/U5xFZZdITSg
The Trump Administration appears to be continuing to move forward in its plans to dismantle the Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research, announcing yesterday plans to shed the NCAR supercomputing facility to a third party. More: tinyurl.com/26924vy4
ICYMI: the first American Meteorological Society meeting during Trump 2.0 showed the many issues facing the weather enterprise - but also the incredible talent and resilience of a scientific community still fully committed to improving its service to society. More: tinyurl.com/4nwypts9
The US is not the only part of the globe dealing with seemingly interminable weather patterns this winter, and I dove into what's been going on in Europe the last several weeks with incredible rain amounts as shown in this striking graphic from Spain posted by Nahel below. tinyurl.com/mrxk4ehn
Trump Admin announced yesterday its intent to revoke the CO2 "endangerment finding" - and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum defended this move today by saying CO2 is a naturally occurring gas. Of course it is - but it is not present in our atmosphere at natural levels. tinyurl.com/5d8j5rbt
In honor of the Secretary of Interior and the EPA telling us we don’t need to worry about CO2 as a pollutant, wearing my Woodsy Owl socks today.
Madagascar is one of the most vulnerable nations to weather disasters, and it has been impacted by two intense tropical cyclones in a period of just more than a week. The most recent, Gezani, poses a threat of Mozambique over the next few days. tinyurl.com/5cmzbfrp
Winter storm causing extensive, major impacts with nearly 800K customers without power due to ice storm in South and 10K+ flights canceled. New England bracing for up to 2' of snow, additional ice in Mid-Atlantic, while severe wx threatens AL/GA/FL. More: tinyurl.com/32ktf7u4
Power outages in Alabama from PowerOutage.us.
Two panel radar display of reflectivity and velocity from the Fort Rucker radar.
A line of intense severe storms is moving across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. There have been a number of reports of wind damage across southern Alabama, and 30K customers are without power in this area. Several tornado warnings in effect. #alwx
Power outages from PowerOutage.us website
While severe wx is in S GA, in N GA, power outages due to glaze accumulation have been increasing, with 100K customers now without power. Total power outages now exceed 1M nationally, mostly due to ice. You can see much of the MS Delta, a socioeconomically vulnerable region, is now without power.
1800 UTC sounding from Greensboro, NC
1800 UTC sounding from Dulles, VA
Midday balloon data from Greensboro, NC and Dulles showing the differences in the warm layer around 5K feet. Nearly 10C at Greensboro versus 2C or so at Dulles. Freezing rain more likely to be dominant precip type in NC with more sleet near DC, tho warming bringing more FZRA north into DC lately.
Radar shows how snow has been rapidly expanding in coverage and intensifying across the Denver metro the last hour. Gonna be an interesting 4th quarter at Mile High.
I usually don't share my Walt Disney World weather newsletter posts on here, but sharing tonight as I talked about the incredible warmth that existed across FL today ahead of the major winter storm. Orlando hit 87F, tying for 3rd warmest Jan day on record. open.substack.com/pub/wdwweath...
Serious impacts have occurred due to ice accumulations across the South, with ~800K still without power and incredible sleet accumulations causing roof collapses in parts of AR. I am VERY concerned about hypothermia risks & pipe burst potential from bitter cold tonight. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb
In my newsletter this morning, I shared the experimental real-time freezing rain ice accumulation analysis developed by the winter weather research group at NSSL. This is the kind of R2O NOAA does that has clear societal benefit - and that the admin wants to curtail. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb
Death toll exceeds 30 from winter weather and extreme cold, with 500K customers still without power due to severe ice storm over weekend. More Arctic air forecast for the weekend along with another challenging storm system. tinyurl.com/ybtccvch
1800 UTC European models trended noticeably snowier for the Mid-Atlantic and closer to the coast with the track of an intense surface low this weekend, and evening US GFS continues its trend of showing a massive Mid-Atlantic blizzard. Overall model trend toward a higher impact event.
More than 60 deaths now reported from the massive winter storm and associated cold weather, with 400K customers still without power. Next arctic blast looks potent for this weekend with major East Coast low bringing snow to at least the Carolinas. tinyurl.com/3fx64bbp
The pace of our news cycle makes it easy for stories to fall off the screen - but the disaster in parts of the South from the ice storm is still very much ongoing. Some important observations from the ground there - and more about the next major storm for the East. tinyurl.com/43987xnn
