🚨 New WP 📄 (w/ @muzhou-zhang.bsky.social and @winniexia.bsky.social )
We ask which countries people in 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪🇩🇰🇮🇹🇷🇴 think their governments should learn from and show:
1) Citizens have clear favorites (Nordics top)
2) Performance info shifts what they prefer and how they explain it
Comments welcome!
This is completely insane and he should be impeached.
It is also extremely confusing. He writes "God Bless the Great People of Iran!" in the same post as he threatens them with annihilation (although I guess it makes sense in a sick way) and brags about having ushered in regime change (he has not).
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it.
In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world:
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Delighted our paper (with an amazing group of co-authors) is forthcoming in the APSR
Takeaway for Labour and other centre-left parties: fixing public services is key to reducing support for the populist right
👇
New in the American Economic Review: migration doesn't hollow out the home economy — it builds it up.
More than 75% of the long-run income gains from migration are domestic. The home economy itself grows.
Here's what we found: 🧵
You and whose economy? Group-based retrospection in economic voting by Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard is now available in Early View. @chdausgaard.bsky.social ajps.org/2026/03/20/y...
We got a paper in @pspolisci.bsky.social l on public administration beyond public administration journals
A substantial share of quantitatively oriented PA research is being produced in top economics journals!
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@karlemilbendtsen.bsky.social
Five stylized facts:
Our latest on the Orban System: how a dozen or so businessmen closely tied to the Hungarian premier hit gold from state contracts when he took over www.ft.com/content/70c2...
Do conjoint/factorial/vignette experiments reflect choices in the real world?
Are hypothetical scenarios in the artificial survey context externally valid? Do hypothetical bias, intention-behavior gap and social desirability biases undermine validity?
Two cautionary studies on this question:
‼️The FT has launched a four-part series on Orbán and the Orbán government. The first part focused on Russian interference in support of Fidesz; this second part deals with the “family’s” enrichment. You wouldn’t believe it, but the FT mapped out their real estate empire from the air ✈️
It’s basically criminology 101 that arrest quotas destroy civil liberties
The only thing popularists fear more than an unpopular idea from the left is a popular one that might actually threaten billionaires.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks with reporters. (AP / Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
AOC: “That’s one reason he must be removed from office - if the Epstein files have such a hold on Trump & this admin that they are willing to plunge us & risk world war in order to save themselves politically - that is the definition of someone who cant make objective decisions for the American ppl”
Russia, Venezuela, Iran, China, the Sahel region, the United States ...
Want to know why state agents carry out brutal repression — or participate in illegal coups?
Our new book "Making a Career in Dictatorship" provides answers — it just got published by @academic.oup.com:
tinyurl.com/ystwm3tf
🔥Revised paper🔥
More regressions. More tests of mechanisms. Same story. Tldr:
Brexit caused much regulatory uncertainty at a moment when UK state capacity was v weak, and hard-to-regulate companies (aka oil firms) did not think twice and generated a mess in the high seas.
Now with full receipts ⬇️
I am extremely honored, and equally perplexed, that my book has received the Stein Rokkan Prize.
Thank you so much to everyone who helped out with this project along the way. So much of the book is the result of feedback by kind people who took the time to listen and read. Thank you.
Wild how economists and political scientists worry so much about unbiased tests **in their papers** and yet basically ignore how their journals filter on significance. Given our noisy tests, the latter creates huge bias away from zero.
We Need to Tax Billionaires -- Gabriel Zucman
In bookstores in the UK on May 21
Very much looking forward to this
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
Congratulations to our faculty member Andrew Bertoli, whose paper on analyzing the impact of events through surveys has just come out in @psrm.bsky.social! 🎉 🎉🎉
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
Nice to see it all dressed up!
Our paper on politicians' wages, corruption and criminal violence is out in the February issue of AEJ:Policy. Check it out at:
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
For absolutely no reason, let me remind people of this banger of a paper by @caroartc.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Why did antisemitism rise in Germany during the Covid pandemic? And why was this increase concentrated among political centrists, rather than on the fringes?
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
@kanol.bsky.social @wzb.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de @politikuhh.bsky.social @socfub.bsky.social
Reminder that, as of the latest reports, Liam Ramos is still in prison in Texas - now for 5 days.
His parents are legal asylum seekers with no criminal record.
I'm hiring two three-year postdocs and an RA for my project on how police presence affects perceived safety.
I'm looking for candidates who can contribute to the theoretical development and who have strong expertise in causal inference.
Deadline: March 1.
www.stillinger.aau.dk/videnskabeli...
I love this project. It's very smart and has very important implications. Do make sure to read it if you haven't already:
📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis.
The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social)
Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome!
🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...