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Posts by Sreedev Krishnakumar
Tamil Nadu's economic rise and the discontent beaneath By Sreedev Krishnakumar Tamil Nadu is one of India’s richest states. It is also a state which has seen a remarkable economic turnaround in the past couple of decades. This growth has improved quality of life and allowed successive governments to offer more economic support. But it has also created a situation where reality sometimes falls short of economic aspirations. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
Tamil Nadu is among India’s richest states and has had remarkable economic growth over the past 2 decades. Growth has lifted living standards and expanded state support, but it has also created a situation where reality sometimes falls short of economic aspirations. Here's a closer look.
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Fertiliser output falls to five-year low in March By Sreedev Krishnakumar Mumbai: Fertiliser production in India fell to a five year low in March, reflecting input shortages triggered by the ongoing war in West Asia, even as the combined index of eight core industries (popularly called core sector index) contracted by 0.4% on an annual basis, the weakest reading since August 2024 when it shrank 1.5%. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the post to read it on the HT website or app)
India's fertilliser output fell to a five-year low in March due to supply chain disruptions triggered by the US-Israel-Iran war, shows core sector data released by ministry of commerce and industry on Monday.
www.hindustantimes.com/business/ind...
2 days ago
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The building fiscal stress in the Kerala Model By Sreedev Krishnakumar Kerala will vote to elect a new government tomorrow. The campaign has seen competing promises on welfare and government jobs. For a state, which has taken pride in carving out a governance exceptionalism often portrayed as the Kerala Model, these promises entail an embrace of the nation-wide populism. But such promises will require a reckoning with the state’s fiscal problems. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
Kerala will go to the polling booths tomorrow. The campaign has seen competing promises on welfare and jobs. But for a state that takes pride in its economic model, those promises also raise difficult questions about strained public finances. Today’s HT Number Theory explains.
2 weeks ago
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Kerala polls are facing a western (Asia) disturbance By Sreedev Krishnakumar Kerala will vote to elect a new government on April 9. Politics in what is an extremely politicized state is competing with the intense heat in the weather. But the state’s body politic is also dealing with an intense ‘western disturbance’: the ongoing war in West Asia and its impact on millions of Malayalis who are directly or indirectly invested in the region. Here are three charts which explain the argument in detail. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
Kerala votes on April 9, but this election has a West Asia angle too. As war rages in the region, its impact is rippling through millions of Malayalis with direct or indirect ties to the Gulf. Today's HT Number Theory show why this “western disturbance” matters so much for the state.
2 weeks ago
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How markets have fared in 18 days of war By Sreedev Krishnakumar It has been more than two weeks since the US and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and starting a new war in West Asia. Iran shutting down Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes which is crucial in global oil trade, has sent crude prices soaring past the $100 per barrel mark. How have the Indian and global markets fared during this period? The charts below explore this in detail. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the HT news app for free)
It has been more than two weeks since the start of the Iran-Israel-US war. Apart from the deaths of 100s (Mostly in Iran), the closure of Strait of Hormuz has inflicted pain on global economy. How have the markets reacted during this period? Today's HT Number Theory explores that in detail.
1 month ago
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The latest oil shock is different from the previous ones By Roshan Kishore, Abhishek Jha, Sreedev Krishnakumar The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday. The opening line of the report states the gravity of the current energy crisis in unequivocal terms. “The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”, it says. Statements from the political leadership of Iran and US – the two countries which matter the most as far as ending the conflict is concerned – does not help optimism on the current disruption. Bloomberg reported US President Donald Trump saying “stopping Iran is greater interest to me than price of oil” and “US makes a lot of money when oil prices go up”, while Iran’s military spokesperson has threatened that price of crude oil will reach $200 per barrel. Between the energy market outlook and the politics around the conflict, the current oil shock could end up being the most painful for the world. Here is how. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
The IEA’s latest monthly report opens with a stark warning that the war in the Middle East has caused the biggest supply disruption in global oil market history. With Trump downplaying oil price risks and Iran warning crude could hit $200, this shock could become especially painful. Here's why.
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The most important lesson from the Strait of Hormuz oil shock By Roshan Kishore, Abhishek Jha and Sreedev Krishnakumar As the war in West Asia continues, the global economy is getting as badly hit as people in the war zone. The biggest reason for this is energy shipments from the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz coming to a virtual halt because of the ongoing hostilities. To be sure, not everyone is, or more importantly, will suffer equally if the conflict is prolonged. This is because the Strait of Hormuz is a more important chokepoint for energy supplies to Asia than to North America or Europe. Major Asian countries had no say whatsoever in starting the war. This asymmetry is perhaps the most important lesson from the ongoing oil shock. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the HT news app for free)
As war in West Asia disrupts energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is taking a hit, but unevenly. The strait is a bigger chokepoint for energy supplies to Asia than to the West. Today’s Number Theory explores this asymmetry, the key lesson of the current oil shock.
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The great (military) purges of China By Sreedev Krishnakumar When China’s president Xi Jinping purged General Zhang Youxia on January 19—among other things Zhang was accused of leaking nuclear secrets to the US—China’s military purge reached a level never seen before under Xi. Not only was Zhang the highest military leader as the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, he had also known Xi from school. The latter, in fact, referred to Zhang as his “elder brother.” Purges, whether political or military—and the two do not necessarily have a Chinese wall between them—are not entirely unheard of in post-revolution China. However, the latest round under Xi’s leadership is definitely different in terms of its momentum and reach in China’s more recent past. On Thursday, Chinese state news agency reported that the country’s top legislature updated its list of deputies from the PLA, removing nine military officials. A new dataset prepared by Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington DC-based think tank, which tracks active duty and retired generals and lieutenant generals purged or potentially purged from January 2022 to February 2026 allows us to quantify this process. Here is a quick summary. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in this thread to read it on the free HT news app)
China's military purges hit a new peak after Gen. Zhang Youxia was ousted last month—reportedly over bribery and even alleged leaks to the US. Now Beijing has also dropped nine PLA deputies from the NPC list. HT used a new dataset from CSIS to explore China's military purges in detail.
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The small club of AI giants By Sreedev Krishnakumar Artificial Intelligence (AI) will change the world economy as we know it. Who owns the technology though? What does it take to “produce” AI? Are there differences across firms leading the AI charge? A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) bulletin by economists Joe Frost, Kumar Rishabh and Vatsala Shreeti gives a useful summary of these questions. Here are three charts which describe its basic findings. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the post to read it on the free HT news app)
AI is reshaping the global economy, but who owns the tech and what does it take to “produce” it? A new BIS bulletin breaks down the AI supply chain and shows how unevenly power is concentrated across leading firms. Today's Number Theory looks at its findings.
www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick...
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The importance of IT sector in India’s labour market By Sreedev Krishnakumar Those outside India’s IT industry believe it faces a moment of reckoning, with fears that many jobs in the sector will simply disappear as AI takes over. India’s IT czars, however, continue to maintain that such fears are unfounded and the industry will adapt without too much pain. The debate will resolve one way or the other sooner rather than later. In the meantime, the question worth asking is what is at stake for India in this debate. HT parsed various databases to answer this question. Here is what the numbers show. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
Many outside India’s IT sector believe it’s facing a moment of reckoning. But Indian IT czars insist all is well and that the sector will adapt to AI. But the bigger question is what is at stake for India either way. Today's HT Number Theory looked deeper into what the numbers show.
2 months ago
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The good, bad and ugly of AI for India By Roshan Kishore and Sreedev Krishnakumar India held its biggest ever Artificial Intelligence (AI) gathering this week. As of today, AI promises huge benefits to the global economy and perhaps even humankind , even as it sparks legitimate fears. What it will finally entail is something best left to the future. What we do know is that the future will not be unchanged, both in capital and labour markets. What will AI mean for the Indian economy? (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
India held its biggest ever AI gathering this week. While what AI will entail finally is something best for the future, it will definitely not leave labour and capital markets unchanged. Number Theory today by @roshankishore.bsky.social and I looks at what AI could mean for India's economy.
2 months ago
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Elections are only the first of Sanae Takaichi’s challenges By Sreedev Krishnakumar Election results released on Sunday vindicated Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s gamble to have snap polls in Japan. With a 75.7% seat share for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led alliance in the House of Representatives, her government will now have the biggest majority in Japan since the end of the second world war. The import of the victory notwithstanding, Takaichi’s government and Japan face tough policy choices. The charts below summarise this. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT news app)
Japan’s snap election gamble paid off for PM Sanae Takaichi, who now have the biggest majority in the lower house since World War 2. The import of the victory notwithstanding, Takaichi’s government and Japan face tough policy choices. Today's Number Theory breaks them down.
2 months ago
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Thank you!
2 months ago
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An annotated version of India-US joint statement published in today's Hindustan Times. The full text with annotations is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the replies to read it on HT app.
Grab today's Hindustan Times to find an annotated version of the India-US joint statement putting specific key details in context. If you couldn't get your hands on a copy, we have also made an online interactive version of it that you can read from our app (link in replies).
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Over the past decade, global finance has shifted beyond banks. “Shadow banking” has moved from the margins to the center of financial system. With buoyant markets and light oversight, old financial vulnerabilities may be building again. For HT, I did a deep dive in to this shift.
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Is focus on agri in US deal missing the woods for the tree(nut)s? By Sreedev Krishnakumar The details of the Indo-US trade deal are not known but expected soon. A lot of the political reactions in India have been about the potentially harmful impact of the deal on our farmers. This makes it worthwhile to look at the Indo-US trade in agriculture before the deal happened. (The full text is too long to be copied and pasted here. Please click on the link in the next post in the thread to read it on the free HT app.)
Details of the Indo-US trade deal have still not been revealed to us. But much of the political reactions in India have been regarding its potential impact on the agricultural sector. This makes it worthwhile to look at the Indo-US trade in agriculture before the deal happened.
2 months ago
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Amid global churn, Budget faces 'external' challenge By Sreedev Krishnakumar If the 2026-27 Union Budget were not being presented in an external environment of unprecedented turbulence, the economic situation would have been very different. Today, the erstwhile hegemon of the rules-based-order is hell bent on destroying it -- and at a time when the world is bracing for a generational leap in technology thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI) which, at least for now, seems to have taken financial markets beyond the realm of rational intelligence. As an economy which runs a current account deficit and is, therefore, dependent on capital flows and is looking to attract more FDI to boost manufacturing, economic policy making in India has no choice but to account for these challenges. Here is a brief description of what they are.
If Budget 2026 was being presented in calmer times, India’s economic choices would look very different. Instead, the rules-based global order is being dismantled, even as AI-fuelled optimism pushes global markets into irrational territory. We looked at the external-sector challenges faced by India.
2 months ago
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