wenn entscheidungsträger*innen eines der reichsten länder der welt, alleinerziehenden, die zu 42% von armut betroffen sind, jetzt auch noch den unterhaltsvorschuss kürzen,dann nehmen sie damit bewusst in kauf, dass immer mehr kinder verarmen. 1/
www.der-paritaetische.de/alle-meldung...
I've been thinking a lot this week about how our mode of transit impacts our relationship with a community after reading this excellent piece by @ecarney.bsky.social
falls jmd denkt, in dem text steht es bestimmt differenzierter drin — absolut nicht
Preprint: Levels of Office and Voter Accountability for Democratic Norm Violations
⚠️New paper fothcoming in POQ! ⚠️
With @marcjacob.bsky.social and @seanjwestwood.bsky.social, we worried about norm-violating local politicians rising to higher office. We tested when voters defect from such politicians in local, state and federal races.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
🧵...
New data for legislative scholars! Committee Membership Dataset with @bcastanho.bsky.social, @dmpullan.bsky.social and Firuze Taner:
Committee assignments for all MPs (Wikidata IDs!) in 14 countries
Harmonized roles/policy areas
Data: doi.org/10.7802/2940
Working paper: tinyurl.com/vf54r78p
⬇️
Ex-Vizekanzler Habeck verlässt den Bundestag. Die Grünen hätten ihre neue Rolle nun gefunden, sagt er der taz. Und dann gibt er Julia Klöckner noch eins mit.
Congratulations!!!
When politicians use simple language, citizens understand more and see them as less elite.
New paper with @danbischof.bsky.social out in @thejop.bsky.social!
doi.org/10.1086/736693
While Merz has now been elected, this will be a stain on the chancellorship from the beginning. This 2nd vote today was made possible due to the statesmanship of the opposition Greens and Die Linke groups.
The helmets, the torches, ... the optics of Großer Zapfenstreich are questionable and uncomfortable. And yet, the band and their interpretations of popular music are oddly impressive.
In one of the most profound and thought-provoking contributions to political science of recent years, Steffen Ganghof proposes an alternative view of Australia (as well as the Australian federal states, and Japan) as semi-parliamentary forms of government. library.oapen.org/handle/20.50...
Out now! "GERDA: The German Election Database." GERDA provides comprehensive municipal, state, and federal election results at the municipality level between 1990 and 2021.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🚨Publication Alert
Very happy to share that my second PhD paper is now out with @govandopp.bsky.social 🤗🎉
Do populist politicians use simpler language? I analyse 30 years of parliamentary discourse to shed light on that question! 👇
Full article: doi.org/10.1017/gov....
#OpenAccess
Die Angriffe auf die Zivilgesellschaft durch die CDU in trauter Einheit mit der AfD gehen weiter. Nach dem der Landkreis Bautzen, der seit langem für seinen rechtsoffenen Landrat Udo Witschas und seine offen rechtsextreme Szene bekannt ist, hat nun auch Salzwedel bewilligte Bundesgelder für 1/3
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
Starke positive Korrelation zwischen Linken Zugewinnen und Grünen Verlusten in Wahlkreisen.
Negative Korrelation zwischen Linken Zugewinnen und SPD Verlusten in den Wahlkreisen.
Keine Korrelation zwischen Linken Zugewinnen/Verlusten und CDU Zugewinnen/Verlusten in den Wahlkreisen.
Der Aufstieg der Linken fasziniert mich. Ich hatte da so eine Vermutung und tatsächlich ist es so: Die Linke gewinnt dort wo die Grünen verlieren. Der Zusammenhang ist bemerkenswert, der Zusammenhang zu Gewinnen/Verlusten der SPD andersrum und zu denen der CDU nicht vorhanden.
Remarkable: Merz wants to discuss reforming debt brake in the *outgoing* Bundestag, where CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens still have over 2/3 of seats, before new Bundestag is constituted by 25 March. Greens already signalled willingness this morning.
Also interesting in this regard is the gap in the far-right vote between young men and young women.
@tabouchadi.bsky.social discusses this here and shows that far-right parties are increasingly in young men's "consideration set":
bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journal...
NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:
Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.
www.ft.com/content/29fd...
With the German election looming (23 February), I am re-upping this post about the new electoral system, and why it no longer fits the proper definition of a mixed-member system. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/02/21/g...
*And* despite some thousands of German citizens in North America (and probably other continents) not receiving the ballot on time.
A really huge number if you compare to US, UK and France in 2024 (all around 60%)
Merz just said on German TV that the primary priority of his government will be to ensure that Europe can achieve full strategic independence from the United States in the defence against Russia.
Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist.
Extraordinary.
Unabhängig davon, was heute Abend rauskommt: Dieser Wahlkampf war die Hölle. Eine Dauerkakophonie der Menschenfeindlichkeit. Ein Überbietungswettbewerb der Boshaftigkeit. Vielen Menschen hat das große Angst gemacht. Für sie bedeutet der Abend heute zumindest eine Atempause.
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
More importantly, as always, SPD is NOT the main supplier of new AfD voters.
Most new AfD voters did not vote in 2021 (not only first voters!).
Right-wing parties CDU and FDP were main suppliers.
Despite hype, BSW took virtually nothing from AfD.
First exit polls are in, and it is extremely tight. The ZDF has both FDP and BSW in, which means only a three party coalition can work, whereas the ARD has both just bout failing to enter parliament, allowing for an CDU/CSU & SPD coalition.
This will be a long night for German politics.
As a German living abroad, I like probably 100.000s didn’t get my ballot in time to vote in today’s election, an election that will see the strongest result for a far right party since WWII. AfD reinvents Hitler as Communist. One of their leaders can legally be called fascist.
Es war ein Problem mit Ansage, nun ist der Frust rund um den Globus groß. Die kurzen Fristen bei der vorgezogenen Bundestagswahl führen zu Ärger bei Wählenden im Ausland. Wahlunterlagen kommen zu spät an - oder gar nicht www.tagesschau.de/inland/bunde...
Some thoughts and pointers on the upcoming German elections on Sunday. Nearly all polling institutes have released final polls in the last days that show a very similar picture. It is nearly certain that the CDU/CSU will come out on top and Friedrich Merz is going to be the next Chancellor. 1/
We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R.
yiqingxu.org/packages/fec...
Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.