Income negative... interesting.

He has voted this way since the beginning of the war. He explained his stance weeks ago in his newsletters to constituents (in which appeared to mis-read the War Powers Act). He criticized in own party plenty even before when he announced his retirement, but now he's even freer from peer pressure.

Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData
doi.org/10.1177/1532...

Our new article is now available online.

It is more likely that Vance's visit did not matter. At all. Last few polls had the Opposition already in supermajority territory.

A single chamber of Congress may sue the executive branch: "Ignoring a statutory limitation on appropriations thus nullifies each chamber’s vote, “caus[ing] a concrete and particularized constitutional injury that [each chamber] experiences, and can seek redress for, independently."

How the U.S. Has Changed in the Past 50 Years | Pew Research Center As America turns 250, explore how demographics, work, family and economics have shifted since 1976, based on 50 years of Census data.

Ahead of the United States’ 250th birthday, we identified some prominent trends across key areas of American life: demographics, work, family and economics.

Find the full analysis here:

PlanScore PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...

Der SPD helfen im Osten und Süden bald auch keine Rentner mehr. Isch over.

Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016.

I coded House Democrats' public statements on 2/28. Few referenced affordability explicitly (things like "health care" "groceries" etc.) or implicitly ("cost us billions" - but not counting "costly war"). Almost everyone referenced congressional authorization. Might change over time.

CQ finds that 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history their roll-call analysis. 85.3% of roll call votes were party unity votes - 70% in the House and 93% in the Senate. Previous record (2-chamber average) was 74.6 percent in 2023. plus.cq.com/doc/news-841...

You seem to know Maine voters really well

What is this assessment based on?

As expected, personalisierung goes bbrrr. The Ländle says "Yes we Cem!"

I'm a bit surprised about the high number of "don't know" among independents

Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs?

We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5

And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)

President's Day reading recommendation: C.W. Goodyear's President Garfield. What a wunderkind Garfield was. A man born to very modest means in Ohio who got an education and rose and rose through hard work and decency. amzn.to/3MsPanC

Why House Democrats May Be More United Than They Seem Two factions of the Democratic Party in Congress are currently playing tug-of-war over the centerpieces of President Biden’s legislative agenda. Moderate Democr…

Virtually all of it. fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...

This is a common pattern over time. Minority party unity is usually lower than the majority party's, because a) they do not control the agenda, and b) their votes often do not determine the outcome, so they have more latitude to vote with their electoral interests.

No.

Great work, thanks for sharing!

🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨

Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive.
@tsyang27
shows who followed and who defied.

In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵

Also, why do they pick Golden as an example? The guy won reelection three times in the toughest district.

You seem very invested in this. The disagreements are really not that substantive.

Individual policy moderation (in competitive districts?) and a strong national anti-corruption pro-democracy platform seem to be perfectly compatible. Or is the disagreement about national party vs. individual candidates?

It seems to me part of the disagreement stems from arguments about individual candidates (possibly in swing districts) vs. the national party. Building a personal brand with moderation on 2 or 3 issues can be an important part.

Fusion of legislative and executive powers through partisanship, like a parliamentary system. Except:
1. The legislative leadership is an extension of the executive, the reverse of parl. systems.
2. Less party unity on policy.

Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations.

1. My point was that GER does not allow for motions against *single ministers.*
2. Bundestag is a collective actor. The important variable is party support. A no-confidence vote requires intraparty conflict and/or conflict between coalition parties. In the US, Rs could "force" accountability too.