"Deep knowledge of the mortgage industry" surely they are drowning in finance people for this. They should be going all in to find a physical risk expert rather than diluting expertise. I guess this is the challenge when companies don't fully understand the role they are trying to fill.
Not sure they will find anyone with all those qualifications/education
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
Earth is warming as ther's more energy arriving than leaving driven by rising greenhouse gases & this imbalance is growing rather than shrinking as needed to limit #climate change. Our recent contributions to this in @ioppublishing.bsky.social:
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming
In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes!
📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections
lnkd.in/efWVVCYX
Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.
• 25 February: Scotland's progress in reducing emissions - our annual review of the Scottish Government's progress and assessment of the policies in place for future delivery. • 20 May: Well-Adapted UK - a new report, five years in the making, setting out what risks the country faces, and what it can do about them. This is part of the CCC's independent assessment for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment. • 24 June: UK's progress in reducing emissions - our annual report to Parliament monitoring the UK Government’s progress and current policies.
Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅
A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon.
Multi-dataset comparison of global temperatures from 1850-2025, with 2025 values highlighted in a separate panel for each individual dataset. Baseline is a combination of 1850-1900 means.
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline)
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
Time series of annual average global mean temperature 1850-2025.
While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well.
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
*reasonably
Do you have a chart of the GHG emissions profile out to 2100? I am guessing this is unreasonable consistent with the latest UN gap report conditional NDCs +all net zero pledges. The amount of removals needed makes me sceptical regarding the actual feasibility.
Just clicked the link - the answer is yes!
To clarify, are you referring to 1.5°C by 2100 and therefore an overshoot scenario?
@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis?
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!
It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives.
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
Thanks Zeke! This is very helpful.
Amazing! I have sent you an email.
@climateflavors.bsky.social @climateofgavin.bsky.social @hausfath.bsky.social
@drlaurasuarez.bsky.social
Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?
Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!
Met Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and Ireland for Thursday. Temperatures range from 16°C in northern Scotland to 30°C in central England, with most regions in the mid to high 20s
Met Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK for Friday. Temperatures range from 18°C in northern Scotland to 31°C near Cardiff, with most areas in Wales and central England in the high 20s
Met Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and parts of Europe for Saturday. Temperatures range from 20°C in northern Scotland to 32°C in central-southern England, with much of the UK in the mid to high 20s
Met Office weather map showing maximum temperatures across the UK and parts of Europe for Sunday. Temperatures range from 18°C in northern Scotland to 31°C in southern England, with most regions in the mid to high 20s.
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.
High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes.
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
Found the quote, thanks. It references this paper using the median of the UN gap report scenario set to define future rates if warning. Having looked at that dataset the median won't include uncertainties in aerosol forcing or ECS.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Did you share the wrong paper? I couldn't find the quote and the paper doesn't look at global climate models.
I agree the place to look is a comparison between observed and modelled ocean heat content. Struggled to find recent work on this but I assume it exists.
If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?
Graph showing the ranking for monthly global mean temperature from six data sets between March 2023 and June 2024. Rankings are shown as coloured squares. Red is warmest on record (for that month and dataset), orange is second warmest, deep yellow (a beautiful shade that I want to call cadmium yellow but it's not toxic) means a top five month and pale yellow (the colour of sun faded straw) is top ten. Nothing is outside that range. Every single warmest month in all datasets happened since July 2023.
Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
