I'll reach out to you soon btw. If interested, I am putting together a group of Covid Cautious Covid scientists. The goal is to deal with this exact issue.

COVlD cases need to fall "well below 10,000" per day for the country to achieve some semblance of pre-pandemic life.

-Dr. Anthony Fauci

Research on COVID is being hampered by a lack of interest by publishers and funding, imo. Considering we are only about 7 years into a brand-new disease, we lost interest pretty quickly.

Yes. Our papers and grants that mention Covid are rejected at a disproportionately high rate. The topic evokes shame and guilt among those reading the documents.

Burn this "sea ice" colored map into your retina, and remember I posted it. Because next time is turns fuchsia, the bot armies, trolls, & disinformation artists will cry "fear mongering." Protect yourself and your community. Follow the science.

See technical appendix on the website for details (in image). The analytic model mainly incorporates recent data (shape of current growth) and historical data (time of year). Some of the predictors are more complex than that (e.g., number of states increasing/decreasing)

Helps if I have my DMs turned on. 🤣

Just messaged you!

If there's substantial interest, I will invite interested people for group or individual meetings to chat (no obligation). It would also help just to hear what is or isn't working, so we can strategize around those issues. Thanks!
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COVlD advocacy work within a larger professional organization? Please reach out via DM or email (googleable)

Are you doing any #COVID advocacy work within a broader professional organization?

If so, please reach out. We're doing some organizing in this area. It would help to know any successes or pain points. Thanks! DM or email (googleable)
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My optometrist is still rocking an N95 in 2026. Every year. He cares & it shows. I actually look forward to my annual eye exams because I am safe & the ventilation is good too. Plus, fun new glasses 🤓

ALA Clean Air School Symposium NOTE: All times listed below are in Central Time. Agenda times and order of topics are subject to slight change. 10:00 AM: Opening Remarks + The Case for Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) 10:50 AM: Core Elements and the Intersection of IAQ and Energy Efficiency 11:25 AM: Voices from the Field - a Panel Discussion 11:55 AM: Break 12:05 PM: Taking Action: 6 Key Drivers 12:35 PM: How to Make it Happen - Programs and Resources for Schools 12:50 PM: Voices from the Field - a Panel Discussion 1:30 PM: Closing Remarks and Adjourn Featured Speakers Speaker list and bios coming soon!

The American Lung Association is hosting a 3.5-hour virtual "Clean Air School Symposium" on May 5.

Register: action.lung.org/site/TR?fr_i...

Learn more at pmc19.com/data

Stay tuned for a slew of updated features. Please use, share, mark up, and improve the graphics. Make videos. Spread the word across social media. 🙏
🧵7/7

Forecast, described in post

PMC forecasts continued slow declines in transition nationally.

There's about a 25% chance that levels drop below 100,000 new daily infections in the near future. That's happened 3 times since onset.
-May/June 2020
-Sep 2020
-May-Jul 2021

40% chance of slow increases.

🧵6/7

Year over year graph

Notice that for mid-April, current levels shown in red are at their lowest of any year, except Year 2 (April 2021), where they were negligibly lower.
🧵5/7

Barometer graph, described in post

Transmission is lower presently than any day in the past 100 days or even past year.

In fact, transmission is lower than all but 15% of the days since pandemic onset.
🧵4/7

Graph of 12 waves

➡️June 15, 2023.⬅️

Our composite model (CDC + Biobot + IHME) suggests that is the only day since the summer of 2021 with lower levels of transmission than today.

Note, like peaks, lull estimates are volatile and prone to retroactive corrections.
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Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 226 (0.4%) New Daily Infections 217,000 Infections the Past Week 1,550,000 Infections in 2026 69,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.17 Long COVlD Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Daily Infections 11,000 to 43,000 Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Weekly Infections 78,000 to 310,000 Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting from New Daily Infections 50 to 90 Excess Deaths Resulting from New Weekly Infections 400 to 700

We estimate 1 in 226 residents of the U.S. are actively infectious w/COVlD. Historically, that's about as low as it gets since pandemic onset.

Many people who have put of cancer screenings, dental visits, and more are catching up on care.

🧵2/7

CDC heat map with PMC estimates

COVlD: Week of Apr 20, 2026 (PMC, US)

Levels are at their lowest in nearly 3 years, but unfortunately with a high baseline of >200,000 estimated new daily infections.

Very High = WV (1 site only)
Moderate = MS (limited data) & Guam

All others low/very low

🧵THREAD 1/7

A blue sky for bluesky

Two screenshots against a background of telephone wires and blue sky. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored light blue to berry pink depending on severity. Oregon is light green, which means “Low”. Text warns that this data is based off April 4th. The second screenshot is text that reads, “67% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.”

It’s Wastewater Wednesday! How are COVID levels? We’re using two sources to help us keep track of the country and our state of Oregon.

Thank you to @michael-hoerger.bsky.social for the map and graph, and OHA for continuing to track data coming from our wastewater treatment centers!

bsky.app/profile/mich...

Thank you, and I will post later this month about how transmission does not appear to be decreasing as much as people may think. I am quite concerned for the summer. Hope I am wrong!

Yes, recently the CDC set a floor for the bottom value for each state. Too bad! We used to have some places known to be 1 in 1200. It's an unfortunate loss in precision. Of course, the CDC does not explain.

CDC Dashboard Overhaul • The CDC has made major updates to its dashboard visualization (https://www.cdc.gov/wastewater/respiratory-viruses/national.html?cove-tab=1), including updating the color scheme for their heat map, as we have advocated for over 2 years. The CDC previously used a COVID-19 heat map with 5 shades of blue, which is contrary to ethical and geospatial visualization guidance. We expressed public and private concern over the impact of a cool blue map on COVID-19 minimization and denialism. In visualizations, we have used our own color scheme, similar to that of Newsweek, the People’s CDC, and others. In February, Puerto Rico departed from the CDC and also switched to a more traditional cold-to-hot color scheme. Here’s the new CDC color scheme with brief descriptors. o Very Low: A light bluish green or “Sea Ice” (#D7F2ED) o Low: A light green or “Soft Jade” (#B8E5AC) o Moderate: A bright orange or “Marigold Orange” (#FEA82F) o High: A hot pink red or “Ripe Malinka”...

Find more COVID info at our website: pmc19.com/data

On page 2 of the report, you'll find an in-depth analysis of the CDC's new color scheme for its heat map

🧵THREAD 6/6

Forecast: flat transmission

Despite all the headlines like this...
🚨BREAKING: BA.3.2 Cicada Eats Children🚨

Levels are lower nationally than any point in the past year. That's not minimizing. It's very serious, and the "lull" is unlikely to last longer another 4-10 weeks.

🧵THREAD 5/6

Year-over-year graph

Notice that estimated transmission is lower than every prior year -- for early April -- with the exception of 2021.

That's when shots were rolling out, shortly before the coordinated push to demask as Delta picked up.

Things are *relatively* safer at the moment.

🧵THREAD 4/6

Barometer showing lower relative transmission than usual

Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.

Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.

🧵THREAD 3/6

Annotated graph of the 12 waves (U.S.)

COVID-19 persists in 2026.

We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.

Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.

🧵THREAD 2/6

Heat map from CDC data and PMC prevalence estimates harmonizing CDC and Biobot wastewater data with IHME true case estimates to derive ongoing transmission projections

PMC COVlD Update, Apr 13, 2026

Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission

🧵THREAD 1/6

State/Territory Wastewater Data for Respiratory Viruses View state and territory wastewater viral activity data for routinely tracked respiratory viruses.

www.cdc.gov/wastewater/r...