Glaciers May Flow into the Ocean More Quickly Than We Think - Eos New research found that adjusting a key model variable may give more accurate predictions of glacial retreat.

eos.org/research-spo...

Thanks. This is relevant to one of my current projects. I will read your Geohealth article very carefully.

Abstract: The case is made that machine-learning statistical estimation neither can nor should be expected to supplant physics-based simulation for weather forecasting.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Connecting extreme weather events to climate change Advances in attribution science are improving understanding of human influence on our planet.

It is more that consistent but not a yes or no question. Have them read this: physicstoday.aip.org/features/con...

Poetry heard at the AMS Tropical Meteorological meeting :
"Big whorls have little whorls,
Which feed on their velocity,
And little whorls have lesser whorls,
And so on to viscosity."
— Lewis Fry Richardson

‘Snow-Eater’ Heat Wave Behind Big Sierra Melt Is a Look at Our Climate Future | KQED An early spring California heat wave is feasting on what’s left of the Sierra Nevada snowpack, raising wildfire and drought concerns.

‘Snow-Eater’ Heat Wave Behind Big Sierra Melt Is a Look at Our Climate Future

“Without a long-term warming trend, these events were previously either unlikely or statistically impossible. We kind of unlock that possibility”

@kqednews.kqed.org @kqedscience.bsky.social
www.kqed.org/science/2000...

Graphic featuring a weather map with swirling green, yellow, and blue contours indicating storm systems over the North Atlantic and parts of Europe. Overlaid text reads: ‘ECMWF AIFS Blog – Severe storms in the age of machine learning’. Below, the authors’ names appear: Soufiane Karmouche, Tim Hewson, Linus Magnusson.

How well do ML weather models capture severe storms?

A new analysis of Storm Amy compares ECMWF’s forecasting systems.

Read the blog ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

I would like to talk to you about the Montreal protocol some time. I have some additional information that is not widely known

I still can't help feeling it is my fault since I bought new skis and an extended season pass this season. Used it for 3 whole days...☹️

Congratulations to Fredi! You and your team are the leaders in attribution science and an inspiration to both young and old (like myself) climate scientists! @frediotto.bsky.social

Having been an author on 4 NCA reports, I want to compliment you again on your excellent leadership of NCA5. Indeed, the report is of the highest quality and remains relevant.

The American Meteorological Society seeks nominations for the 2026 Syukuro Manabe Climate Research Award. Nominations due 5/1/26.
This award is granted to researchers who have made outstanding contributions to the fundamental understanding of Earth’s climate system.
www.ametsoc.org/stac/committ...

See www.ametsoc.org/stac/committ...

Just 2mph short…

I am. (And thanks for publishing this in ASCMO!)

Mundane software development and viz is pretty straightforward, almost pedestrian it is so easy. The weirdest thing we did was verify a statistical proof. We had two ideas and chat showed us which one was correct. We verified later manually, and it was right. A bit scary really...

The combined effect of extreme heat and COVID-19 on agricultural labor supply in California communities While growing bodies of scholars have examined the separate effects of extreme heat and COVID-19 on migrant farmworkers in the United States, we are unaware of any study examining their potential comb...

New(ish) paper: journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations - Frontiers of Earth Science Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation managem...

All currently modeled SRM schemes make seasonal drought somewhere, especially in the southern hemisphere. And the response of hurricanes (tropical storms) is highly uncertain but bound to be severe from the change in the vertical structure of the atmosphere. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Thanks, I need to cite this is an upcoming paper.😀

I would use CGCM or AGCM depending on which class. But I am old school at this point.

I should also mention that during a California drought, it is just one beautiful day after another. Sunny and warm again...

And no rain in California since Christmas. Western US drought outlook is poor.

I have some ideas, of course…

You hit upon one of the more interesting current detection & attribution problems. While theory might suggest changes in blocking frequency and/or intensity, the signal to noise is high. If true there are still competing effects between dynamics & thermodynamics, further complicating things.

Latest paper on impact attribution. A must read for those interested in the topic doi.org/10.3389/fcli...

Not a big fan of the analogy. And not because of my LLNL background. But because it is unrelatable. Rather I think people understand death & destruction (i.e. $) more directly. And there is plenty of that to go around.

Scores are lower than last year, and the mix of mentions (colors) very different. Not sure what to make of that.

I'm glad that I played my part when I could...

I will see what I have. This was a long time ago 🤣

The 3 am warning woke me up and kept me up thinking about the leak in the basement...