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Posts by Chietigjb

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What does Pakistan gain from its Iran–US diplomacy? Islamabad has an obvious interest in ending the war, to ease energy problems and cool tensions on its border with Iran. But any hopes for economic benefits from the Trump administration may be misplac...

Pakistan has an obvious interest in ending the #IranWar. But any hopes for economic benefits from the Trump administration may be misplaced, writes our Associate Fellow Farzana Shaikh.

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Weekend - Iran says Hormuz won't stay open if US blockade continues - BBC Sounds Trump says the blockade will continue until a peace deal is reached

A pleasure joining the BBC Weekend programme with Gary O'Donoghue (Chief North America correspondent). Over 2+ hours we discussed the #MiddleEast conflict‌, #Hungarian election and frictions between Trump and the Pope. Listen to it here (from 26:30 minutes) www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

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What lessons will China, India and other Asian nations draw from the Iran war? Independent Thinking Podcast Whatever the eventual outcome of the US-Israel war on Iran, the geopolitical aftershocks will reverberate across Asia for years, and perhaps decades, to come.

As talks are underway in #Pakistan on bringing an end to the #Iran conflict, my colleagues and I in the @chasiapacific.bsky.social discuss the broader implications of the conflict for #Asia in the @chathamhouse.org ‘Independent Thinking’ podcast: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/what...

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The Iran War Mediation and Pakistan’s ‘Reverse Bismarck’ Despite the positive optics of punching above its weight in diplomacy, Pakistan has become weaker over time.

Pakistan’s stature has been on the rise following its mediating role in the Iran conflict. But, despite the positive optics of punching above its weight in diplomacy, Pakistan has become weaker over time, writes @chietigj.bsky.social for @thediplomat.com.

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(4/4) In this context, the key arbiter of power in Pakistan - the military and intelligence services - can be seen as anti-Bismarckian: they are adept in the art of Realpolitik, but unable to translate this into lasting strategic gains for the country.

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(3/4) The challenge is translating tactical wins into long-term strategic gains. Despite the positive optics of punching above its weight, Pakistan has become weaker over time. Its global ambitions are weighed down by internal pressures and regional insecurities.

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(2/4) From joining the anti-communist Baghdad Pact in the 1950s to facilitating the Sino-US rapprochement in the 1960s/70s to countering the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and joining US-led 'War on Terror' in the 2000s while maintaining close relations with China and the Islamic world.

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(1/4) Islamabad has demonstrated a dexterity and nimbleness in its foreign policy that other countries (including India) often lack. Pakistan practices a more pro-active strategic autonomy, in contrast to India's more passive strategic autonomy.

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The Iran War Mediation and Pakistan’s ‘Reverse Bismarck’ Despite the positive optics of punching above its weight in diplomacy, Pakistan has become weaker over time.

My article in @thediplomat.com discuses #Pakistan's foreign policy and global role amid its mediation efforts in the ongoing #Iran conflict. Summary of the key points in the comments. @chasiapacific.bsky.social thediplomat.com/2026/04/the-...

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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Opinion | Why Middle East volatility presents an enhanced risk for South Asia Beyond oil, remittances and cultural ties, trade and defence pacts in recent years have added to strategic and security interconnectedness.

Amid reports that #Pakistan is seeking to mediate between #Iran and the US, my article in @scmpnews.bsky.social argues the ongoing conflict in the #MiddleEast reaffirms the growing interconnectedness of #SouthAsia and #WestAsia. @chasiapacific.bsky.social www.scmp.com/opinion/asia...

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(5/5) Nepal’s foreign policy is in uncharted territory. The new government has talked about transforming Nepal from a ‘buffer’ to a ‘bridge’ between China and India. What this means is unclear. Shah’s anti-establishment rhetoric will be concerning to Beijing given China’s own large youth population.

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(4/5) The elections also have broader geopolitical implications. China and India will be reassured by the BNP victory in Bangladesh. New Delhi in particular will be hoping for a reset in relations with Dhaka that deteriorated drastically following Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power in 2024.

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(3/5) With South Asia accounting for almost half the world’s population living in a democracy, the region can be seen as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ for Gen Z movements across the Global South. The differing outcomes demonstrate that there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach in these youth movements.

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(2/5) Their differing political trajectories hold underlying risks. In Nepal, the leader is untested. In Bangladesh, there is a risk that the election outcome is perceived as a return to business as usual. In both, an inability to deliver the changes demanded could revive the politics of protest.

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(1/5) Elections and #GenZ movements in Nepal, Bangladesh and #SriLanka show that democracy remains well-entrenched in South Asia. While the catalysts for change may be similar, the endpoints are not. Bangladesh chose continuity; Nepal chose change. Nepal rejected the Left; Sri Lanka embraced it.

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Elections in Bangladesh and Nepal offer tips for democracy in Global South After Gen Z-led overthrows, Dhaka and Kathmandu make opposite choices

Developments in South Asia show there is no one-size-fits-all approach in the trajectory of Gen Z-led overthrows. While the catalysts for change may be similar, the endpoints are not the same, writes @chietigj.bsky.social for @asia.nikkei.com.

1 month ago 1 2 0 0
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Elections in Bangladesh and Nepal offer tips for democracy in Global South After Gen Z-led overthrows, Dhaka and Kathmandu make opposite choices

#Bangladesh and #Nepal reverted to democratic rule after elections in February and March. What does this say about the politics and geopolitics of #SouthAsia and the #GlobalSouth? My article in @asia.nikkei.com discusses this. A summary in the thread. asia.nikkei.com/opinion/elec...

1 month ago 0 1 1 0
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America’s Attack on Iran Should Have Asia-Pacific Countries Very Worried Having overthrown regimes in Latin America and the Middle East, why would Washington draw the line at Asia?

Asian countries may feel reassured by the US having its hands full with the recurring instabilities in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

But, having overthrown regimes in Latin America and the Middle East, why would Washington draw the line at Asia, asks @chietigj.bsky.social.

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Afghanistan and Pakistan are facing ‘open war’. De-escalation is needed With the world distracted by war in the Middle East, de-escalation will need to come from Kabul and Islamabad directly.

In recent weeks Pakistan has struck major cities in Afghanistan including Kabul and Kandahar, as well as Bagram airbase. The Taliban have responded by targeting Pakistan directly.

Read @chietigj.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House. https://bit.ly/4suXuCE

1 month ago 11 9 0 0
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America’s Attack on Iran Should Have Asia-Pacific Countries Very, Very Worried Having overthrown regimes in Latin America and the Middle East, why would Washington draw the line at Asia?

Having overthrown regimes in Latin America and the Middle East, why would Washington draw the line at Asia?

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(4/4) Asia may feel reassured by the US having its hands full with instabilities in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’. But it would be a fallacy to believe that Asia is safe from the United States’ never-ending mission to proselytize and preserve its primacy.

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(3/4) Meanwhile, #China and #India have little appetite or ability to stand-up to US belligerent behaviour when it does not threaten their core interests. If Beijing and New Delhi cannot defend key partners in the Global South, their ambitions to be leaders or voices of the Global South ring hollow.

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(2/4) But in reality, there has been more continuity than change in US foreign policy with a proclivity to maintain primacy and bending the rules to achieve this. While every leader will criticize its predecessor for getting bogged down in never-ending wars, they cannot resist getting into the same.

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(1/4) The Trump administration’s recent actions have been framed as a break from the past. Trump’s disdain for allies; lack of respect for global norms and institutions; and abjuring a value-driven foreign policy distinguishes Trump from his predecessors.

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America’s Attack on Iran Should Have Asia-Pacific Countries Very, Very Worried Having overthrown regimes in Latin America and the Middle East, why would Washington draw the line at Asia?

My article in @thediplomat.com discusses what the United States' recent decapitation of #Iran’s leadership following the earlier abduction of #Venezuela’s leader means for Asia. A summary of the key points in the comments: @chasiapacific.bsky.social thediplomat.com/2026/03/amer...

1 month ago 1 2 1 0
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Afghanistan and Pakistan are facing ‘open war’. De-escalation is needed With the world distracted by war in the Middle East, de-escalation will need to come from Kabul and Islamabad directly.

With conflict in the Middle East, renewed hostilities between #Afghanistan and #Pakistan have fallen off the radar. But this conflict has strategic significance far beyond the borders of both countries. My @chathamhouse.org ‘Expert Comment’ discusses this: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/afgh...

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What India Wants From BRICS New Delhi wants to play the role of a bridging power between the West and the rest.

As #India embarks on a year of summits – having hosted the #AIImpactSummit last week, hosting the #BRICS Summit later this year and possibly the #Quad Summit – my article in @foreignpolicy.com looks at India’s ambitions to be a ‘voice’ of the #GlobalSouth. foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/25/i...

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@chasiapacific.bsky.social

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A pleasure discussing the outlook for #Bangladesh at the UK parliament following the recently concluded election, which saw Bangladesh revert to democratic rule. An honour to see a few prominent faces in the audience! Thanks to the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association for inviting me.

1 month ago 1 1 1 0
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Despite reset in India–US relations, New Delhi retains commitment to strategic hedging The Modi government may conclude a trade agreement, but its relationship with the Trump administration has been scarred by a year of hostility and tariffs.

India's Modi government may conclude a trade agreement with the US, but its relationship with the Trump administration has been scarred by a year of hostility and tariffs, writes @chietigj.bsky.social for @chathamhouse.org.

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