Pretty obvious to anyone who doesn’t just watch the market run up every day.

It’s just a math equation at the end of the day, but some greedy people don’t want to hear that because it would interrupt their gambling addiction.

Once again, this is why I wish I was old enough to have traded the dot com bubble.

History always repeats itself, especially when it’s mathematically forced to.

They will eventually have to care** lol

They should care about the Strait though.

And that’s why you can’t chase a bubble.

Which is why markets aren’t right.

Didn’t know everyone was a mind reader all of a sudden.

You’re** x2

Not at all actually, just tired of seeing people act like they know what they’re talking about when they don’t.

Lol we didn’t have full capitulation. Oil is 30% higher since pre-war and we still don’t have a resolution. Oh and rates are higher. Don’t see a stimulus package anywhere. Have the private credit issues magically gone away?

How does that all result in multiple expansion or earnings growth?

If that’s the case, then markets shouldn’t be back to the areas where they were pre-war, nor should they be moving so much on a priced-in headline.

But alas, markets don’t function normally anymore and we don’t want to have that discussion

I’m still sticking to this ‘22 market analog for now.

Semis lead and QQQs overly concentrated to them, so makes sense that the bounce is a bit overdone, relative to ‘22, but once the market wakes up to the real effects of higher input prices (similar to ‘22), the drawdown will probably ensue.

All of this is also being driven by low liquidity / volume, which makes me think that the snap back is just going to be much worse unfortunately

I guess if the AI bots are taking over the world and humanity we won’t need oil, reasonably priced food, jet fuel. So it all makes sense

US hotels slash summer room rates as World Cup demand falls short Industry executives say fans are being put off by expensive match tickets, inflation fears and anti-American sentiment

www.ft.com/content/7fd5...

Surely not a drag on earnings either.

I think we need to be a bit more pragmatic on what the market is now (gambling, with no end in sight), and less inclined to rationalize it. Doing so only adds dangerous fuel to an already horrific fire.

Markets knew COVID existed, but refused to accept reality until it started showing up in the US.

And none of the remote estimates are positive for the economy with the current stagflationary backdrop.

So yes, I don’t know why the majority of market participating are acting like this other than the fact they don’t know any better (greed, which the POTUS teaches them pretty damn well i guess)

The only way to convince someone it’s prudent to full risk on invest right now is to have insider information on how and when the war will end, what full post-war supply looks like, when that will be, and how much of a cushion economies have until then.

No one has any of that.

Of course there is. But you’re still gambling on many unknown quantities (when the Strait will open, with how much quantity, at what pace it will come online at, etc.) versus imo truly investing or hedging a marketing that has gotten ahead of itself because of the actual known quantities.

IMO, we are in the eye of the hurricane or the waiting game for a tsunami to hit.

The proof is in the existing paid prices data and current energy levels. It’s just a matter of how others want to make sense of it. Justify a higher multiple? So be it. but that doesn’t seem too wise to do

I would love to have the optimism that others have in this world. But the realities that I’m witnessing can’t possibly be the same as those that are using them to “invest.” It would go against every single risk management protocol out there.

Why is there so much backwardation when the Strait is still closed and many oil fields in the region (including 17% of the worlds largest natural gas plant for the next 5 years) are blown to shit?

So maybe you’re right. Maybe I don’t think oil traders are as sophisticated as others do.

All this eventually hits every part of the economic ecosystem. And if it doesn’t, that means the global economy has slowed to a halt.

Physical oil prices hit record highs near $150 a barrel as Hormuz crisis worsens European and Asian refiners are paying ‌record high prices of near $150 a barrel for some crude oil grades, far exceeding prices for paper futures, highlighting the worsening supply crisis from the U....

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

3) the economy is not in a place to support a staglfationary environment (every recent data point reflecting this) where oil is at $90+ for a sustained period of time.

So all that taken into consideration, the market putting their weight behind the guy who has bankrupt many business is interesting

2) real crude prices paid are reported to be much higher to what spot crude is trading at. Maybe if we stopped the insider trading in the oil futures we’d figure that one out.

But I do know that $65 oil isn’t returning soon without a growth slowdown and markets don’t seem to care - irrational

1) many retail traders who “buy every dip” have never been burned in the way they imo ought to be because they are gambling not investing - irrational. They only know one mode when they have the capital to deploy

A 2-10% real tariff tax (depending on where you get your data) on the consumer supported by a strong economy, is not the same as an energy supply shock causing a 30%+ increase in energy input costs (another, more severe tax on the consumer), with no end in sight. Supported by a weaker economy.

An energy supply shock that is still ongoing, with no clear end in sight (where if you know anything about narcissism, you’ll know very clearly why that is)