How to keep Alberta in Canada YouTube video by National Observer

Latest YouTube show featuring Dan Arnold from Pollara.

And yes, the separatists are already in the comments. Have at 'em. #abpoli #cdnpoli

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfil...

You'll recall an 8.8 point drop by Liberals in the infamous Toronto St. Paul's by-election was the beginning of the end for Trudeau.

Biggest declines in CPC vote in byelections, since 2015 (35 total byelections):

1. Terrebonne (2026) -14.8%
2. Scarborough SW (2026) -12.2%
3. University Rosedale (2026) -11.1%
4. Lac Saint Jean (2017) -8.3%
5. Toronto Centre (2020) -5.7%

Pollara (n=3200 Albertans, Mar 16-25)

Sentiment to Politicians in Alberta

Carney: Pos 42%, Neg 34%
Poilievre: Pos 42%, Neg 34%

www.pollara.com/support-for-...

The Pollara Substack unpacks the potential for support for Alberta separatism to change throughout 2026.

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/should-i-s...

"Even though the winning conditions are seemingly not there today, support for separatism in Alberta is meaningfully higher now than it was pre-Trump, higher than it was when “F Trudeau” bumper stickers represented 8% of Alberta’s GDP."

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/should-i-s...

A Prairies Gathering and an NDP at a Crossroads A diminished base within a large universe and difficult strategic choices ahead

For those looking on a primer on the state of the NDP, Matt Smith digs into the data. What's their vote universe? How do the leadership candidates resonate? Do NDP voters want them to bring this government down?

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/a-prairies...

New post unpacking fresh polling on how Canadians feel about Carney's first year in power - and why the need to show change is more important for Carney than most newly elected PMs.

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/a-change-w...

Wind of Change There's a red chinook rolling into Alberta. Calgary Grit examines where the Liberals could actually win seats.

What's behind the rise in federal Liberal support in #Alberta? The answers are in Pollara's Dan Arnold's analysis at The @Pollara Substack:

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/wind-of-ch...

#ABpoli #CDNpoli

We've quantified the long-standing media narrative that Carney's gvt feels like a "PC gvt".

There's some public agreement - but the people most likely to agree are those who have the least experience with actual PC governments: young people, Quebecers, and British Columbians.

New substack post where I look at what’s causing the rise of federal Liberal support in Alberta and what ridings the Liberals might realistically be targeting.

Consider this a “Calgary Grit” throwback.

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/wind-of-ch...

Pollara (Feb 1-2, n=1200)

Did Carney's Davos speech change the way you feel about him?

A lot more favourable 31%
A bit more favourable 28%
No change 29%
A bit less favourable 2%
A lot less favourable 8%

www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

We've got polling on Carney's Davos speech.

Where did people hear about? (social media, word-of-mouth, news reports, etc)

And did it change how they feel about the Prime Minister?

Click the link for the full results: www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

The Writ Podcast: Carney's bump, Poilievre's challenge and the NDP's choice YouTube video by Éric Grenier

A new pollster panel on The Writ podcast with @ericgrenier.bsky.social. We had a great discussion on the NDP's crossroads (can they get back blue collar votes?), why Carney's favourables are rising, and why Poilievre should heed Eminem's guidance.

youtu.be/zZWRLuvbLsQ?...

Kingsbury ties to the hundreths of a point and loses gold on tie-break. Grondin misses gold by 0.03 seconds.

These athletes train their whole lives and then it really does come down to inches.

The Writ Podcast: Carney's bump, Poilievre's challenge and the NDP's choice YouTube video by Éric Grenier

A new pollster panel on The Writ podcast with @ericgrenier.bsky.social. We had a great discussion on the NDP's crossroads (can they get back blue collar votes?), why Carney's favourables are rising, and why Poilievre should heed Eminem's guidance.

youtu.be/zZWRLuvbLsQ?...

Six-in-ten Canadians more favourable towards Carney because of Davos speech 57% watched the speech or clips from it

Pollara (Feb 1-2, n=1200)

Did you read, see or hear anything about PM Carney's Davos speech?

Watched full speech 18%
Saw clips 40%
Read it 18%
News reports 29%
Social media 16%
Talked about it 12%

TOTAL: 79% heard about it

www.pollara.com/six-in-ten-c...

I've got a new post up that unpacks fresh polling on how Canadians consumed Carney's Davos speech - did they read it, see it on socials, watch news reports on it?

And what does this tell us about how political stories go viral in 2026?

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/heard-it-t...

I've got a new post up that unpacks fresh polling on how Canadians consumed Carney's Davos speech - did they read it, see it on socials, watch news reports on it?

And what does this tell us about how political stories go viral in 2026?

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/heard-it-t...

The latest on Pollara's Substack unpacks exclusive survey data to understand blue collar workers.

We find the Conservatives leading by 29% among blue collar workers and ask why that is, and what progressive parties can do to win tem back?

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Check out our deep dive analysis on blue collar workers.

As the chart below shows, they're more drawn to leaders who have worked hard to get to where they are and who understand what regular people are going through.

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Our deep dive on blue collar workers finds many Canadians still see the NDP as the party that does the most to help blue collar workers - but very few blue collar workers themselves feel this way.

Read the full analysis: pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Blue Collar (Da Ba Dee) Why are blue collar workers voting blue and is there any way for progressive parties to win them back?

This is one of the reasons you should be following the outstanding @pollara.bsky.social substack newsletter penned by the equally outstanding @calgarygrit.bsky.social. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Danielle Smith booted 2 MLAs from her caucus - one who didn't support her budget and one who wanted a probe into alleged ethical lapses.

Yet she won't "police" whether or not her MLAs want to break up Canada? It's a little odd that she's chosen to be indifferent this time, given the stakes.

I’ve written a deep dive on blue collar workers and how progressive parties can better connect with them.

Based on polling - who are blue collar workers, what do they look for in leaders, what matters to them?

pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/blue-colla...

Given recent developments, the China/US question could be a major hinge point in the next election.

Liberal voters are -72 sentiment towards US vs. -13 among CPC voters. The gap isn't as wide on China (Lib -29, CPC -37) but I could see that widening in wake of Carney's trip.

Pollara (Dec 2025, n=3800)

% who would vote for their province to separate, by provincial vote intent:

MB NDP 1%
MB PC 18%
SK NDP 8%
Sask Party 31%
AB NDP 4%
UCP 40%
BC NDP 4%
BC Con 21%

www.pollara.com/western-alie...

Under Pressure Pollara's 31st annual economic outlook survey shows Canadians pessimistic about 2026, as economic threats from the US hang over us

Read my latest on this over on Substack: pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/under-pres...

Canadians are feeling better about many inflationary pressures (groceries, gas, housing) BUT @pollara.bsky.social finds one of the most pessimistic macro outlooks in 31 years of tracking, as the Sword of Damocles hangs over Canada in the form of Trump’s economic policy.

Canadian fears of a worsening U.S. economy under Trump have skyrocketed, poll suggests As tariffs lead to rising prices and unemployment stateside, there is growing angst that Canada's economy could be dragged down, too.

After 31 years of continuous annual tracking, Pollara's 2026 #EconomicOutlook report sees Canadians expressing some of highest levels of #economic #pessimism we’ve ever recorded - largely due to #stress about US #economy and #tariffs. Toronto Star article: bit.ly/44VJlFk. Free report: bit.ly/3N8dzyQ