What's the best Euro names to get long for a ceasefire rip? Consumer discretionary? Hermes almost buyable but would like to see it ~30x or lower.

Universal Music Group Dreams & Reality

Universal Music Group $UMG

The music has stopped for Compounder bros, but I’ve been waiting for this fade since Ackman was pumping his super SPAC w/ a sock puppet.

I see fair value at €24. ~55% upside.

Full write up here: open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...

Open to counter arguments but as long as things de-escalate from here (looks likely) why would we sell off again? I wanted better prices in a lot of names, but I think the bottom is in.

Has knocked me out of that ready-to-buy-a-starter euphoria by poking holes in my thesis. Can be easy to ignore my own criteria and make excuses for positions but having Claude explicitly point out how it fails the specific requirements I gave it makes it harder to ignore. Saved me losses.

Yes. I push back sometimes but I try to keep my prompts objective and have changed the settings so it won’t tell me what it thinks I want to hear.

I sort of did this w/ Claude and it’s been hugely beneficial ytd. I set parameters so strict on stock selection it literally just says no to all of my half baked ideas.

Incredible how he has fumbled the bag so badly with tariffs and Iran. Deflationary growth w/ AI supercycle handed to him on a platter and he was like no, let’s redo the 1970s instead.

Orange Swan - Oil Spill Follow Up

It’s hard to crash when everyone is wearing a seatbelt and driving the speed limit.

Orange Swan - Oil Spill
substack.com/@valuations/...

I'm surprised $META's ~80% drawdown in 2022 didn't do more to dispel the idea that flows benefit the top weights of the index.

Except SpaceX actually exists and is vertically integrated. $ASTS has built 2% of their constellation.

This market looks ready to puke at the open but can’t quite bring myself to press shorts. Not sure what I’m waiting for.

Feels like 99% chance of a Sunday night or Monday morning Truth Social post that will try to jawbone markets higher. Also feels like that will be the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and an insta-fade.

One my all time favorite movies. Nice deep cut haha.

No idea. My first thought was ethic cleansing or something.

This is a Rorschach test for your personal views about Elon Musk.

AMA. More of a story stock that will eventually be a shitco.

maybe it holds, but only if punters don't read anything beyond the headline.

Yeah it’s a data moat. Not an API-first product which is the longer term risk here.

Nice beats from $FA. +9% premarket but very illiquid. Announced a buyback worth ~6% of the float. Turns out labor market is just flat, not quite reflecting the doomsday scenario making the rounds.

$FA crushed because Citrini said UE will be at 10% and API focused start ups like Checkr will eat their lunch as records become digitized. But records are at the county level, fragmented, require runners, will take a decade plus. Large data moat, duopoly likely at trough. Very cheap but PE overhang.

$DE is trading at a higher sales multiple than half of SaaS with 30% gross margins and 5% projected revenue growth for FY26 😭

Orange Swan The Impact of The Highly Probable

Updated my 2026 outlook.

-Prediction for a blow off top
-Inevitable bust
-Underpriced tail risk

I flipped long from net short last week and included a list of my recent buys.

valuations.substack.com/p/orange-swan

$FA is a data flywheel. More customers, more screens, more records, better coverage, which attracts more customers.

integrated into 100+ Human Capital Management platforms with high switching costs, 96-97% retention rates.

Duopoly with substantial pricing power.

First Advantage Tactical Trade

Tactical trade. $FA is a baby getting thrown out with the SaaS-water. I’m betting labor market reaccelerating in the second half will provide at least 40% upside.

Full write up here:
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...

Anyone else noticing the IG algo suddenly feeling closer to Xitter?

Maybe my own engagement shifting but suddenly getting served a bunch of unhinged conspiracy vids. Feels like the “Facebook files” was only yesterday and already full circle.

Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place.

1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.

a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box ALT: a man in a yellow suit is carrying a black box

Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a $MSTR flier.

The perfect follow up to bidding TWTR at $44B right as the market topped in Jan 22.

Seems like a low bar for $AMZN tonight. Just don’t guide capex above estimates and it’s green. Retail probably humming.