The current NZ gov response to fuel crisis does seem to be tracking long the lines of that Hemingway quote:
"How did you go bankrupt?"
"Gradually at first, and then suddenly"
I'm worried that by the time we reach the 'suddenly' phase, the gov won't have prepared the population enough.
#nzpol
@nztankerwatch.bsky.social is doing a great job tracking NZ fuel en route/arrived. There does seem to have been a drop in stocks en route in the latest update, but too early to tell if it's systemic.
A massive fire has broken out at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery in Australia, one of only two operational refineries in the country.
No confirmed injuries reported.
Cause still unknown. Facility processes ~120,000 barrels a day.
‘Korean oil refiners have sharply scaled back jet fuel production, diverting much of the adjusted volume to domestic demand. As the world’s top jet fuel exporter, Korea is a critical lifeline for countries like the US, Australia & NZ.’ koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-04...
Renewables having been saving the UK approx £7 million a day since the US-Iran war by removing demand for Gas. That's down to policy decisions taken to increase renewables in the electricity sector. NZ should have done similar for transport sector, given how renewable our grid already is.
This image from JP Morgan shows the expected delivery termination dates for oil transiting through the straight of Hormuz. NZ showing mid April. Source: www.marketwatch.com/story/this-m...
Shouting out @nztankerwatch.bsky.social for the brilliant Open Intelligence work on NZ's fuel security. Brought to me by @bernardchickey.bsky.social
My newest article - what went so wrong with Woolworth's Olive AI Agent and what lessons can we learn about friction in human-machine networks?
This reminds me of the scene in 'The Big Short' where the shorts realise that the investment banks knew there was going to be a bailout.
I've started a Substack, it's called To Build A Fire (title taken from my fav short story by Jack London) and it's about social machines, human-computer interaction, AI governance and business development, amongst probably other things. Happy to be back writing in the Web Science space after years.
The death of (some of) the Trump tariffs looks like it's going to work out well for clean energy, at least for now.
Sometimes I'm not sure if we actually live in a true 'cost of living crisis' or if we really just live in a world where the barriers to purchase are so eroded we're overwhelmed with the ability to spend. www.stuff.co.nz/money/360939...
Dawn Chorus out: One dead, highways closed, culverts washed out & power cuts hit thousands in North Island; Climate Change barely mentioned; US set for 'weeks' of Iran strikes; Scoops, deep-dives & cartoon of the day #nzpol open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/...
In the midst of the angst about the repealing environmental law, it's important to remember that the economics of renewable energy doesn't care.
I recently learned about NZ's farm subsidy repeal in the late 1980s; by removing subsidies overnight the government drove (after a rocky decade or so) far more productivity in the farming sector. Can't we do this for housing by removing the current housing subsidy (no capital gains tax)?
A decade a go, NZ was a world leader in renewable energy for electricity generation. Now we're lagging countries in Europe, South America, Africa. This gov's decision to lock in LNG for another several decades is ridicuolus and seems driven by a fossil fuel industry desparate to hold onto profits.
This great research by @nmalhotra.bsky.social, Yotam Margalit and Saikun Shi found that Small Business Owners skew politically right (check NZ's position here).
AI is predicted to grow SMEs, while also reducing labour participation. Will future AI driven business owners support welfare policies?
HUGE moment for the EU car market as battery EVs overtake petrol cars for the first time ever
But there's no "natural" demand for EVs amirite?
Article by @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...
Question I pondered this morning: Will AI create more independent businesses and traders who will skew more politically right, as independent businesses and traders tend to do, by reducing the cooperative framework (accountants, marketers, web design) needed to create a small business?
Keen to read any current research/polling that focuses on community level trust or democratic engagement in the USA currently. All I see from my distant vantage point are national level polls aimed at satisfaction with the administration.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Climate Change debate is over in NZ. Every single person I've talked to. regardless of political leaning or age, about the recent North Island rains has displayed awareness of the fact that there are going to be more extreme weather events.
Heard a new phrase this morning on RNZ:
"When the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow...and it doesn't rain" - that's when they'll take more water.
Feels like incumbent energy is still trying to do anything other than promote the obvious solution of rooftop solar + home battery solutions.
Chart showing that India's power sector CO2 just fell for only second time in half a century. Electricity generation from coal, terawatt hours per year. Source: NITI data portal.
NEW – Analysis: India’s power-sector CO2 falls for only second time in half a century
✍️ Anubha Aggarwal @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social Nandikesh Sivalingam
Read here: buff.ly/2OHaLGM
Preliminary data from @electricitymaps.com showing Aotearoa New Zealand running at 99% renewable as at 9am. Proving that when hydro output is strong, coal and gas aren't needed for firming. Wind and solar will only increase hydro storage by reducing its need, so lets get more of it in place.
the theme of the report is "Steep" - steep rises in clean tech, steep drops in fossil fuel. I mean, look at Pakistan here, that reversal is huge!
I'm going to do a deep dive on @ember-energy.org electrotech revolution report, there's so much brilliant info in there. Do yourself a favour and have a read:
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
Second key point from this report re: solar for renters. NZ should pay close attention due to the far higher renting population (33.2% vs 26% in Aus). In Aus, gov initiatives in VIC, NSW & federally are working - time for all states & territories (and then NZ) to join in!
