Did a map of the Bulgarian parliamentary election.

Overall, things are right now at an impasse. Government negotiations will continue on Wednesday, but at some point someone has to commit to something. Right now parties are essentially trying to place the blame on each other.

This may seem like a technicality, but it matters for the negotiations. If the status quo is that the agreement doesn't exist, then it can be used as part of the negotiations. Otherwise you can't really do so.

V and C want the agreement to be reconfirmed now, regardless of what government is formed, while being open to then renegotiating it.

The Social Democrats want to reconfirm it AFTER a new government has been formed.

The Social Democrats claim the agreement no longer is valid since there no longer is a majority in favor of it. This is because the Moderates (M), which did not exist in 2006, is not a party to the agreement. Both M, and well as V and C, disagree with this assessment.

The Social Democrats (A) – and those further to the left – want to change the agreement, limiting increases to the retirement age, as well as giving more people the ability to retire earlier. The other parties that support the agreement (B, C, M, V) want to broadly preserve it.

The agreement in question is the one that ensures that the retirement age increases every five years in accordance with the living age increases. Because this affects the length of people's working lives, a lot of money is on the line here.

This gets a bit technical to explain, but agreements like this one are seen as politically binding in Denmark across elections, as long as there still is a majority between the parties that were part of the agreement before the election.

Update on Danish government negotiations: Venstre (V) and the Conservatives (C) now accuse Mette Frederiksen (A) of breaking the welfare agreement from 2006, saying that this is blocking the formation of a government.

My personal assessment remains basically the same as since the election, which is that the proposed A-F-M-B government is the least unlikely of the many unlikely outcomes. But I am not 100% sure over how this ends.

So overall: We are still in an early phase of the negotiations where it remains to be decided what government they will form. Those on the left clearly want Løkke to support a constellation of A-F-M-B, but he likely won't do that unless a centrist government is exhausted.

Mette Frederiksen (A) has said that parties need to be more willing to compromise after three weeks since the election. She says that for a government to eventually be formed, "something is required from everyone". She appears frustrated over the lack of definitive progress.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) said in an interview on Tuesday that he thinks it will take more than a month to form a government, and that it will take about a week before the participating parties are narrowed down.

Pelle Dragsted (Ø) has called for Løkke to "pack the tactical games" and negotiate for a left-wing government.

Martin Lidegaard (B) has not ruled out a government consisting of A, V, M, C, and B. Like Pia Olsen Dyhr, he has said that a "center-left" government has the largest probability of having a responsible economic policy and an offensive green policy.

As a reminder, what she refers to is a proposed government containing A, F, M, and B. Such a government would not have a majority on its own, and thus would require the tolerance of Ø and/or Å.

Pia Olsen Dyhr (F) has once again said that she does not want to participate in, nor support a government containing either V nor C. She has said that no matter what, negotiations will still take a long time.

She says she hopes Løkke will want to form a "red-purple" government.

It does not appear that Venstre (V) has completely ruled out participating in a government. However, the party clearly doesn't expect it as the most likely outcome.

An indication of this, is the fact that incumbent ministers have leadership roles in the new parliamentary group.

Venstre (V) has said that it is "not obvious" to participate in a government with Mette Frederiksen, and demands "a responsible economic policy" to participate in a government. According to deputy leader Stephanie Lose, it "looks difficult" to form a government with the party.

Mona Juul (C) has said that she still prefers a blue government, not a centrist one. She has said she does not expect to attend further meetings with Frederiksen. According to her, her party continues to prefer a blue formateur (likely Troels Lund Poulsen).

Last Sunday, Frederiksen invited Venstre (V) and the Conservatives (C) to negotiations, for the reason I mentioned. B, F, and M are also still involved in negotiations.

Løkke demanded that Frederiksen (A) must explore a centrist government and pause the existing negotiations with the left-wing parties. She has agreed to explore that possibility, however she is still in parallel continuing talks with Ø and Å.

It does feel a bit wild to say that negotiations are still early, almost 4 weeks since the election, but it's true. Fundamentally the parties have not committed to actually forming any particular government yet.

Here's an update on where the Danish government negotiations stand. Last week Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M) said he would not negotiate with Mette Frederiksen explored the possibility of forming a centrist government (like the one shown here).
But overall negotiations are still early.

This is what the calculation looks like with all votes counted.

Update: Tisza just flipped another list seat. It is now 141 to 52 to 6 seats in total.

I will admit I kind of neglected to consider how many votes were remaining to be counted. And these votes have gone for the party by an extremely large margin.
bsky.app/profile/gust...

Here is the current calculation of list seats. Fidesz is only about 27,000 votes away from flipping a seat from Tisza, but since the remaining votes lean towards Tisza, and no constituency lead is expected to flip, it will remain at 44-43-6.

The diplomatic representation votes and the absentee votes have leaned more towards Tisza than I had estimated. Although still not quite enough for the results in any further constituencies to change.

The diplomatic representation votes and the absentee votes have leaned more towards Tisza than I had estimated. Although still not quite enough for the results in any further constituencies to change.

And just like I predicted, Tisza has just won all 3 constituencies after the last votes were counted today.

The final result of the election will be:
🟦Tisza 140 seats
🟧Fidesz-KDNP 53 seats
🟩MH 6 seats
bsky.app/profile/gust...