Think I might be settled on this for a while as a GW34 free hit (Beto could be anyone if he isn't fit)

Very early free hit draft. Looks OK 🤷‍♂️

Palmer headbutts the ref 🤷‍♂️

GW33
Bench boost active. No transfers.
🌍172k
Good luck everyone!

🔴 Red arrow on wildcard is not what we want (especially as I switched Scott to Ampadu last minute). But the wildcard was all about the double to come.

Palmer on 9 defcons... is there a chance? I will literally take anything at this point

Ah damn, I almost had Castellanos on my wildcard 👀

GW32

Wildcard activated. 🌍165k. Let's go.

I think having one player like that, considering the other options, is a wise choice. If everything else goes wrong, you're still banking those consistent defcons. Don't think id have more than one though

That does help, for sure. Fingers crossed, but who knows

Mitoma vs Scott
- Mitoma is a shot in the dark. Geat player, good history, but dreadful season. He could play all 3 games, but no guarantees, & early subs likely. He is the YOLO pick.

- Scott is the opposite. Defcon points only. But they are likely.

3 game predict: Mit: 8 points. Scott: 10 points

Conclusion

DCL vs Welbeck
- DCL has better mins. More mins = more chances. But 1 return in 10 is bad.

- Welbeck has had fewer mins over 10 but 3 more returns. BUR CHE TOT conceed a lot from strikers in particular. The lower mins is annoying though.

3 game prediction. DCL: 10 points. WB: 13 points

Fixtures:
DCL: MAN (A), WOL (H), BOU (A)
Welbeck & Mitoma: BUR (A), TOT (A), CHE (H)
Scott: ARS (A) might be good for def con. NEW (A) also good for def con. LEE (H)

I prefer Brighton fixtures. WOL have been resurgent, so I dont think that fixture is as good as it looks. BUR, CHE, TOT leak goals.

Data:
- DCL's xGI over the past 4 games are: 0.14 (BRE) 0.94 (CRY) 0.08 (SUN) 0.80 (MCI)
- Welbeck's xGI over the past 4 are: 1.20 (LIV) 0.21 (SUN) 0.0 (ARS - 21 mins) 0.66 (NFO)

Not too much to read from that, other than they both get chances when their teams are pushing the opposition.

Minutes:
- DCL will almost certainly play 90mins in all games.
- Welbeck will play close to 90 mins in 2 of the next 3 games. Will probably a sub in the other.

- Mitoma is a question mark for playing all 3 games, either way he will likely be an early sub in some of them.
- Scott plays all mins.

Weighting up DCL & Mitoma vs Welbeck & Scott on wildcard.

Form:
- DCL has 1 return in 10 games (missed his last 2 Prem penalties).
- Welbeck has 4 returns in 10 games (no pens)

- Mitoma has 3 returns all season.
- Scott has 2 returns all season (but regular def con).

Really good article, thank you.

A Look at Brighton's Squad Squad composition, xMins, and FPL musings

A LOOK AT BRIGHTON'S SQUAD

— Squad Composition
— Tactical Analysis
— xMins and Penalties
— FPL related musings

OUT NOW: instinctive.substack.com/p/a-look-at-... 👈

Over the double and this week I think Welbeck outscores DCL.

He will get less minutes for sure, probably impact sub in the second of the double, but he's got that sparkle of form that DCL has been lacking (FA Cup penalty aside).

Whelp, guess im buying man city players.

🔴 Red arrow 139k ➡️ 165k

Frustrating because I made a bad transfer going early. If id waited, I would have made a different transfer and be at least 10 point up. Live and learn.

Thiaw with 0 points, hill with -1, Ekitike with 1. I effectively played this week with 8 men

So this game week I went early to swap Keane to Thiaw.

Later I realised I should have swapped Salah for Gordon instead. That mistake was an 18 point swing 🤦‍♂️

GW31

Keane ➡️ Thiaw

Salah transfer has been a nightmare, but we move.

🌍 139k

Im really starting to realise that. If someone dared to go against Haaland consistently for the last 10 or so weeks then I bet the gains would have been huge.

🟢 A good week 166k ➡️ 139k. Crawling towards top 100k.

The danger is, two good weeks will climb 50k, one bad week will drop 200k, so got to be careful. This week was all about captain choice. Glad I didnt have Haaland because it easily could have been him.

So that’s 1 pointers off the bench locked in 🔒. The gameweek that keeps on giving 🙄

The timing of that post i swear 😂. He literally got that as I pressed send

Oh, well there's the assist 😅