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Posts by Gary Sands

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Expert Analysis: The War in Iran and the Future of the Gulf For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr...

The Gulf States: Engaging militarily alongside the United States without confidence that Washington will follow through with a decisive, transformative campaign would leave them exposed to long-term Iranian retaliation with no strategic payoff. www.wikistrat.com/post/gulf-st...

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IN FOCUS: Honduras weighs shift in ties amid US pressure - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

“Asfura’s calculus is fundamentally about the US, not about Taiwan per se,” Urdinez said. “Taiwan recognition is essentially the price of admission to Trump’s good graces.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...

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5 charts show China’s oil dilemma after US strikes Disruption of Iranian oil supplies may make China more interested in turning to Russia.

“If the conflict drags on for a couple of weeks, the most logical solution for Beijing is going to be to turn to more Russian crude,” said Andon Pavlov, Kpler’s oil and tanker research director. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

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On Iran, China Cares About the Region More Than the Regime Beijing won’t risk its broader Middle East interests to save the Islamic Republic.

"China’s engagement there in recent years has been largely pragmatic and belies the notion of an anti-American alliance with the Islamic Republic." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...

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Why China Won’t Help Iran Beijing cares about the oil, not the regime.

"More than 55 percent of China’s total oil imports in 2025 came from the Middle East (approximately 13 percent from Iran itself), most of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway bordered by Iran." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...

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Why China Won’t Help Iran Beijing cares about the oil, not the regime.

"Because its priority is to ensure that Iran remains a viable economic partner, it is regime agnostic." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...

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The Coming Showdown Over Cuba How escalating U.S. pressure could reshape the island.

"Even if broad segments of Cuban society demand a decisive break with socialism, the dominant bureaucratic, academic, military, and media elites would seek to preserve their influence." www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/coming-...

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What the Iran war means for the US-China balance Even in the best-case scenario, China losing a friend in Tehran won’t be the blow Trump might assume.

China gets only 13.4% of its oil from Iran, making such a loss serious but far from irrecoverable. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

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Drop in Chinese air incursions might be due to Trump-Xi meeting: officials - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Facing Trump, "Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan," a senior Taiwan security official said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...

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US says weapons supply under control - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Colby said that Washington would play an important role in the Middle East militarily, but with Israel, US Gulf partners and European allies being more assertive the US would still be able to focus on the first island chain. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...

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US says weapons supply under control - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...

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Colby said that the US needs to work hard on the defense industrial base, but that “nobody should get the wrong impression” and that the US is “ahead of the problem.”

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Chinese embassy warns citizens in Japan against 'bumping assault' risks The embassy also reminded its citizens in emergencies to contact local police immediately and to seek assistance from Chinese diplomatic missions in Japan.

The Embassy of China in Japan on Wednesday issued an alert urging Chinese citizens in the country to stay vigilant against public safety risks, warning of a recent rise in "bumping assault" incidents that have drawn widespread public attention. www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/6...

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Lacking either the trust or the institutional genes to set up a more stable alternative, a post-CCP authoritarian regime rooted more in raw power than in engineered consensus might be even harder for the West to deal with than the relatively disciplined and strategic regime China has today.

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Li’s analysis suggests a greater likelihood that dissent will threaten the regime than is often assumed.

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China’s Fragile Future How secure is the CCP?

Li instead shows that only about 28 percent of the population has total trust in Xi. www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/chin...

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S Korean travel system still using ‘China (Taiwan)’ - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Many Taiwanese have filed complaints to the ministry, saying that the online system lists Taiwan as “China (Taiwan)” in dropdown menus for “place of departure” and “next destination.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...

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Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.

"and open controlled channels to Beijing rather than treating all engagement as capitulation." (which Beijing will treat as capitulation) www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...

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"...nor does any country support Taiwan’s independence." (As of March 2026, 12 countries maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan (Republic of China), implicitly supporting its sovereignty as an independent entity.)

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Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.

"Many observers [such as Xi] assume that Taiwan must choose to align itself with one side or the other." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...

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Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.

"...the utility of Philippine geography and capabilities is overstated. A handful of undefended U.S. equipment sites and rotational Marine deployments are unlikely to deter China from attacking Taiwan." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...

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Expert Analysis: Operation “Epic Fury” Expert analysis of “Operation Epic Fury,” uncovering the strategic realities of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran and what it means for the region’s future.

The regime's survival calculus is built on outlasting Washington, not defeating it. www.wikistrat.com/post/epic-fury

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Lin Family killing archives declassified, but key evidence destroyed: Lai - Focus Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) said Saturday that all archives concerning the unresolved 1980 Lin family massacre have been declassified for public review, though evidence regarding the perpetrators rem...

Lai noted that "archives about the Lin family case are incomplete, and much of the oral history has proven unreliable or fabricated," referring to the 1980 murder of three members of then-dissident Lin I-hsiung's (林義雄) family on Feb. 28, 1980. focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...

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China could easily trigger Taiwan data blackout: expert - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Taiwan should build domestic cable repair capacity, ideally with Japan, and its coast guard should expand vessel watch lists and patrols near critical cable corridors. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...

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No power rationing due to Middle East conflict, minister says - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Taiwan has secured liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for this month and contingency measures are in place if the conflict extends to next month - only 25 percent of Taiwan’s natural gas supplies are from Qatar. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...

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As China's economy slows, some young people are snapping up cheap apartments to 'retire' early As China’s property market craters and youth unemployment rises, burned-out young professionals are fleeing megacities for ultracheap housing in remote towns.

Life in Venice? $168 a month for her apartment in faux Venice in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu. apnews.com/article/chin...

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A controversial Karen warlord’s quiet stop in Taipei - Taipei Times Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

Even Myanmar’s democratic government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), has since 2024 adopted a policy of not recognizing Taiwan out of a desire to win Beijing’s favor. www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...

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6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury The United States and Israel have set a high bar for success in their war on Iran.

"Trump himself is notorious for his willingness to backpedal while declaring victory. Epic Fury may end with death and destruction in Iran but little change in the long term." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/i...

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Thanks to Trump, Xi Has Time on His Side With Taiwan Beijing is less likely to risk an invasion while Trump is facilitating its pressure campaign against Taipei.

Neil Thomas, a specialist in China’s elite politics, has observed that Xi is “a calculated risk-taker rather than a reckless gambler.” foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/25/t...

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China purges nine military officials ahead of key meeting for Xi Nine more top military officials have been just days ahead of China's most important legislative meetings.

The leadership gaps would erode the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army in the event of a major military campaign, such as an invasion of Beijing-claimed Taiwan. www.newsweek.com/china-purges...

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