The Gulf States: Engaging militarily alongside the United States without confidence that Washington will follow through with a decisive, transformative campaign would leave them exposed to long-term Iranian retaliation with no strategic payoff. www.wikistrat.com/post/gulf-st...
Posts by Gary Sands
“Asfura’s calculus is fundamentally about the US, not about Taiwan per se,” Urdinez said. “Taiwan recognition is essentially the price of admission to Trump’s good graces.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
“If the conflict drags on for a couple of weeks, the most logical solution for Beijing is going to be to turn to more Russian crude,” said Andon Pavlov, Kpler’s oil and tanker research director. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
"China’s engagement there in recent years has been largely pragmatic and belies the notion of an anti-American alliance with the Islamic Republic." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...
"More than 55 percent of China’s total oil imports in 2025 came from the Middle East (approximately 13 percent from Iran itself), most of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway bordered by Iran." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...
"Because its priority is to ensure that Iran remains a viable economic partner, it is regime agnostic." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...
"Even if broad segments of Cuban society demand a decisive break with socialism, the dominant bureaucratic, academic, military, and media elites would seek to preserve their influence." www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/coming-...
China gets only 13.4% of its oil from Iran, making such a loss serious but far from irrecoverable. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Facing Trump, "Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan," a senior Taiwan security official said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
Colby said that Washington would play an important role in the Middle East militarily, but with Israel, US Gulf partners and European allies being more assertive the US would still be able to focus on the first island chain. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
Colby said that the US needs to work hard on the defense industrial base, but that “nobody should get the wrong impression” and that the US is “ahead of the problem.”
The Embassy of China in Japan on Wednesday issued an alert urging Chinese citizens in the country to stay vigilant against public safety risks, warning of a recent rise in "bumping assault" incidents that have drawn widespread public attention. www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/6...
Lacking either the trust or the institutional genes to set up a more stable alternative, a post-CCP authoritarian regime rooted more in raw power than in engineered consensus might be even harder for the West to deal with than the relatively disciplined and strategic regime China has today.
Li’s analysis suggests a greater likelihood that dissent will threaten the regime than is often assumed.
Li instead shows that only about 28 percent of the population has total trust in Xi. www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/chin...
Many Taiwanese have filed complaints to the ministry, saying that the online system lists Taiwan as “China (Taiwan)” in dropdown menus for “place of departure” and “next destination.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
"and open controlled channels to Beijing rather than treating all engagement as capitulation." (which Beijing will treat as capitulation) www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
"...nor does any country support Taiwan’s independence." (As of March 2026, 12 countries maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan (Republic of China), implicitly supporting its sovereignty as an independent entity.)
"Many observers [such as Xi] assume that Taiwan must choose to align itself with one side or the other." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
"...the utility of Philippine geography and capabilities is overstated. A handful of undefended U.S. equipment sites and rotational Marine deployments are unlikely to deter China from attacking Taiwan." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
The regime's survival calculus is built on outlasting Washington, not defeating it. www.wikistrat.com/post/epic-fury
Lai noted that "archives about the Lin family case are incomplete, and much of the oral history has proven unreliable or fabricated," referring to the 1980 murder of three members of then-dissident Lin I-hsiung's (林義雄) family on Feb. 28, 1980. focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
Taiwan should build domestic cable repair capacity, ideally with Japan, and its coast guard should expand vessel watch lists and patrols near critical cable corridors. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
Taiwan has secured liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for this month and contingency measures are in place if the conflict extends to next month - only 25 percent of Taiwan’s natural gas supplies are from Qatar. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
Life in Venice? $168 a month for her apartment in faux Venice in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu. apnews.com/article/chin...
Even Myanmar’s democratic government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), has since 2024 adopted a policy of not recognizing Taiwan out of a desire to win Beijing’s favor. www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...
"Trump himself is notorious for his willingness to backpedal while declaring victory. Epic Fury may end with death and destruction in Iran but little change in the long term." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/i...