The Democrats most likely to pull the strings in the 120th Congress These 10 members will wield important committee and subcommittee gavels if their party wins power in November, giving them oversight over borders, bullets, and budgets.

To slow President Trump’s agenda, a Democratic majority would have the power to subpoena administration officials, impeach the president, or impeach some of his Cabinet members.
Ben Shifrel and @ledyardking.bsky.social report (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731590/the...

Public opinion on AI is all about vibes It takes more than a few questions to get to the bottom of all the applications and issues involving artificial intelligence.

When we ask generic poll questions about AI, we have no idea which aspect of AI’s impacts people are responding to.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731589/pub...

Tax refunds are bigger, but so are long-term worries about the economy Last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is putting more money into Americans’ pockets, but experts warn higher energy prices could squeeze consumer spending.

Experts warn that the refund boomlet will end, and the nation’s economic health could be at risk.
David Lightman with the latest Following the Money (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731577/tax...

Virginia could give Democrats edge in redistricting wars The party hopes Tuesday's referendum yields a much-needed win after a 2024 shellacking.

Mid-decade redistricting has defined the 2026 midterm cycle, and the latest chapter takes place in Virginia.
James A. Downs reports (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731578/vir...

Party defections are mostly a thing of the past Federal candidates can typically rely on 90+ percent support from their party's base.

People tend to forget not only how pervasive partisanship has become, particularly now that there are no longer many conservatives in the Democratic Party nor liberals in the Republican Party.
Charlie Cook with the latest Off to the Races:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731579/par...

‘We’re broke’: GOP-led Congress feels heartburn over Trump budget A big funding boost for the Pentagon and deep cuts in domestic programs are not messages Republican incumbents are eager to sell on an already challenging campaign trail.

Not only does Sen. Jack Reed want to equip troops with cutting-edge gear and pay them well, he’s also worried about having the resources to deal with fallout from the Iran war.
By @ledyardking.bsky.social (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731555/wer...

‘Very dangerous’: Appropriators fear losing bipartisan buy-in on funding process Top appropriators in both parties express concern about the partisan exercise of passing DHS funding through budget reconciliation.

Top appropriators have expressed concerns about passing DHS funding under reconciliation.
By Nancy Vu (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731556/ver...

Hotline's Q1 House fundraising chart Republicans hold their own as they cling to a narrow majority.

As they stare down a difficult election cycle, Republicans held steady thru the 1st quarter, the latest FEC reports show. GOP incumbents continue to outraise Dem incumbents as they try to hold their slim majority. James Downs explains the numbers:
(Unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/731542/iho...

Hotline's Q1 Senate fundraising chart Democrats nearly sweep the battlefield in the money race.

Democratic Senate candidates continued to command the fundraising race in the first three months of 2026, outraising Republicans on average by 4 to 1 in battlegrounds races. Conversely, GOP-aligned groups are dominating in fundraising.
Nicholas Anastácio has the latest:
(Unlocked): buff.ly/0BPWHgX

The audit dividing Massachusetts Democrats Intra-party conflict over a voter-mandated review of the state Legislature’s activities has spilled over into state and federal campaigns.

Intra-party conflict over a voter-mandated audit of the Massachusetts Legislature’s activities has spilled over into state and federal campaigns. How could a seemingly benign review create such rancor? Hannah Marr explains:
(unlocked):

Trump's mixed record in endorsing foreign candidates The president has cast aside the long tradition of his predecessors (at least publicly) staying out of overseas elections.

President Trump has cast aside many norms, including his predecessors' decision (at least publicly) to stay out of overseas elections. In his latest WHITE HOUSE FILE, George Condon delves into the president's failed push to prop up Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán:
(unlocked)

Q&A with Heather Williams The DLCC president outlines the path to rebuilding Democratic state legislative power amid special-election flips.

It's not just about Congress. Democrats are trying to win statehouse as well. DLCC President Heather Williams spoke to @abbyyturner_ about the importance of winning ahead of the redistricting that will take place after 2030:
(unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/731529/qa-...

Why being a ‘net oil exporter’ doesn’t insulate the U.S. from gas-price shocks The United States is still a participant in the global economy and relies on the imports of crude oil from other countries.

President Trump often points out the U.S. produces more oil than it consumes. So why are American consumers dealing with high gas prices? Nancy Vu delves into that as well as the expected grilling Energy Secretary Chris Wright faces Wednesday on Capitol Hill:
(Unlocked) njour.nl/s/731530?unl...

The AI paradox: Americans don't trust it, but they use it Possible future impacts, more than current realities, are making people nervous.

Polling suggests most Americans are kind of freaked out by it AI - even as they increasingly use the technology. In her latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson explores the conundrum between the public's thirst for & apprehension of artificial intelligence:
(Unlocked): njour.nl/s/731528?unl...

The pre-2028 book guide Before these candidates hit the stump, they hit the bookshelves.

Six Democrats and two Republicans poised to launch 2028 campaigns have announced or published books since last July, when former Vice President Kamala Harris announced her campaign memoir. Erika Filter has all the plot twists: www.nationaljournal.com/s/731497/the...

For all their troubles, Republicans won't suffer from exposure Democrats already have a sizable share of the House; there are only so many vulnerable Republican seats for them to pick off.

In his latest OFF TO THE RACES, Charlie Cook says it's easy to assume Democrats will win in a bloodbath in November. Not so fast. Democrats already have a sizable share of the House; there are only so many vulnerable Republican seats for them to pick off.
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731519/for...

How a Trump endorsement in Louisiana’s Senate race isn’t a slam dunk Sen. Bill Cassidy is battling to win reelection despite his Trump impeachment vote and the president’s backing of his main GOP rival.

Sen. Bill Cassidy is battling to win reelection despite his Trump impeachment vote and the president’s backing of his main GOP rival. Nancy Vu and Nicholas Anastácio break down what might be the most fascinating Republican primary in the nation:
njour.nl/s/731520?unl...

‘Impeccable credentials’ alone won't secure Warsh confirmation as Fed chair Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell is well thought of, but Sen. Thom Tillis’s concerns could slow down the nominee’s path.

In his latest FOLLOWING THE MONEY, David Lightman writes how Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, is facing obstacles to Senate confirmation beyond his control.
(unlocked): buff.ly/yO4Ma44

The fight for Minnesota’s legislature The razor-thin margins may turn on volatile national issues.

No state legislature is as evenly decided as Minnesota's. Ben Shifrel writes the election this November will determine control of the Legislature and, just as importantly, show what kind of politics resonates with voters in a highly volatile year:
(unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/731499/the...

‘This is madness’: How reluctant Democrats are now talking about removing Trump Impeachment talk means less focus on the pocketbook issues that motivate swing voters.

In his latest POINTOF ORDER, Ledyard King writes that Trump's bombastic rhetoric over Iran has many Dems who refused to engage in impeachment/25th Amendment talk now bringing it up publicly. And that's threatening to muddy the affordability message on the campaign trail:
(unlocked) buff.ly/fb1e6GG

How the Iran conflict is further weakening NATO Trump doesn't understand the alliance. And the allies don't trust the president (or American voters).

In his WHITE HOUSE FILE, George Condon writes the transatlantic friction over NATO, building since Trump arrived in 2017, threatens to rupture following Trump's decision to bomb Iran w/out consulting the allies he attacks for not stepping up when things soured.
(unlocked) njour.nl/s/731490?unl...

Could a congressional win lose Democrats the Electoral College? A Democratic primary in Nebraska's 2nd District could affect the state’s electoral allocation.

Nebraska allocates its Electoral College votes by congressional district. Republicans in Lincoln want to undo it & revert to winner-take-all. The race to win Rep. Don Bacon's Omaha-based seat could give them that chance. Erika Filter explains how:
(unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/731479/how...

Is an RFK-approved menu realistic for school lunch programs? School officials worry that the new food pyramid, plus stricter eligibility requirements for entitlement programs, will raise the cost of providing school meals.

In his latest OUTSIDE INFLUENCES, Jerry Hagstrom writes that school officials worry the new food pyramid, combined with stricter eligibility requirements for entitlement programs, will raise the cost of providing school meals.
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‘Bullish’: Permitting reform gains new momentum Two years after talks stalled, key Republicans and Democrats are optimistic about a deal—largely due to data centers’ energy demands.

Permitting reform has been the unattainable goal Congress has sought for years. This time could be different as key Democrats & Republicans are optimistic a deal will happen this year thanks - partly to data centers. Read the story by Ben Shifrel and Ledge King:
(unlocked) njour.nl/s/731480?unl...

Why you shouldn't overread the drop in Trump's approvals He's lost about all the support he can lose without shedding his core Republican supporters—and that's unlikely.

In his latest OFF TO THE RACES, Charlie Cook writes not to overbuy into the hype that President Trump is completely tanking. He's lost about all the support he can lose without shedding his core Republican supporters—and that's unlikely.
njour.nl/s/731469

The legal battle over voting Democratic attorneys general prepare guardrails against the federal government, while Republican AGs come to Trump’s aid.

President Trump’s efforts to control over elections has state AGs scrambling: GOP AGs want to assist those efforts while Dems are challenging executive orders on elections & bracing for future legal battles. Read the latest from Erika Filter & Abby Turner:
www.nationaljournal.com/s/731468/the...

How low can the economy go? Economic fundamentals remain sound despite spiking gas prices, but keep an eye on supply shocks, the housing market, and financial tensions.

In his latest FOLLOWING THE MONEY column, David Lightman writes that economic fundamentals remain sound despite spiking gas prices, but keep an eye on supply shocks, the housing market, and financial tensions.
buff.ly/ttswR9p

Where in the world are the 2028 wannabes? Introducing a map of where Democratic 2028 hopefuls are hitting the stump.

Where are the 2028 hopefuls going? Hotline's @efilter531 has the travel map tracking the shadow campaigners’ visits across the country, from stumps alongside down-ballot candidates to early-state speeches:
(unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/731447/whe...

Why the DHS funding deal is bad news for the filibuster GOP capitulation to the Democrats’ bill gives Republicans more incentive to pass their agenda through budget reconciliation.

How could the deal on DHS funding reached between Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (assuming it passes the House) deal a blow to the filibuster? Read the latest POINT OF ORDER from @LedgeKing to find out how:
(unlocked) njour.nl/s/731449?unl...

In primetime address, Trump still finds the endgame elusive According to the president, we've "decimated" Iran with an "overwhelming victory," but more strikes will be necessary. And there's still no exit strategy.

In his WHITEHOUSE FILE column, George Condon writes the president's speech was plagued by poor timing, one he was urged to give after the initial attack on Feb. 28 - 3 weeks after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, & just hours after the avg price of gas hit $4:
(unlocked): njour.nl/s/731438?unl...