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Posts by Francisco Castelo Branco

yeah

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

The problem may also be related to a lack of courage or willingness to install a regime that does not have popular support, even if the only solution is a return to monarchy.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

It cannot be said that the military actions were useless because they further isolated the only country that promotes insecurity, conflict, and terrorism throughout the region. However, an inability to replicate the objective of the invasion of #Iraq at the beginning of the century was noted.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

In these thirty days, it has already managed to turn other countries in the region against #Iran. However, they still need to recognize the existence of the Israeli state, which should happen after the end of the conflict.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

but the idea that has persisted for 47 years will not be replaced. Since last year, #DonaldTrump has maintained the same method of pressuring the regime. While negotiating, #Iran uses military means to gain something more for the #UnitedStates, but also taking into account the security of #Israel.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

Therefore, they are unlikely to attempt to change the regime, which has never weakened internally, despite the deaths of several important members. In this way, #Tehran may make some relevant concessions, particularly regarding the uranium enrichment program and the fight against #Israel,

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

The only significant event was the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Americans maintained their strategy of bombing Iranian military, energy, and nuclear facilities without deploying troops on the ground.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

A month after the #UnitedStates began its attacks against #Iran, it can be concluded that instability in the #MiddleEast remains the same as it was on October 7, 2023. In other words, there has been no progress towards peace nor any territorial changes that would create further problems.

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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#DonaldTrump still lacks the courage or will to change the regime in #Iran

olhardireito.blogspot.com/p/english-ve...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

A ground action, like the one in Iraq, would have very significant costs for the #UnitedStates administration, but also for the Israeli leadership. The death of many soldiers would not be well received in #Washington and #TelAviv, despite the growing anti-Iranian sentiment in the #MiddleEast

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

The Revolutionary Guards are also intact, so it is difficult to speak of a major victory. However, regime change is not a priority for #DonaldTrump and #Netanyahu, who prefer to see the enemy weakened to the point of being unable to recover militarily.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

The death of Ayatollah #Khamenei ends up being the most important event since the beginning of the joint offensive by the #UnitedStates and #Israel, but the regime remains strong because a replacement is already being considered.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

However, there have been some retaliations, notably against neighboring countries, which have caused considerable damage. So far, 12 countries have suffered damage due to Iranian missiles and drones.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

During the last week, there has been much talk of aerial bombardments to prevent a response from the enemy in the same way. That is, the main objective is to prevent #Tehran from having the capacity to carry out the same type of attacks.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

The #UnitedStates has fulfilled its threats to attack #Iran, although without using troops on the ground. The first phase of Operation "Epic Fury" aims to destroy Iranian military equipment, especially nuclear weapons that may already be developed.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0
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The #UnitedStates intends to weaken #Iran by destroying all its military equipment

olhardireito.blogspot.com/p/english-ve...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

The desire to force #Iran to sign a nuclear agreement through the use of force seems complicated to achieve unless there are other intentions, such as replacing the leadership, but this would cause some international condemnation, especially after what happened in Caracas and the deaths of soldiers

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

I don't believe there is the capacity to capture the Iranian spiritual leader, as happened with #NicolásMaduro in #Venezuela. The last option is to carry out air strikes against civilian targets, which would lead to the regime's surrender.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

but there will continue to be pressure from #Washington for some time. A ground invasion, as happened in #Iraq, only makes sense if the objective of the current administration is regime change. However, the issue was not included in the guidelines after the meeting that took place in Geneva

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

There are no other ways to resolve the conflict. That is, Ayatollah Khamenei doesn't have many choices, especially if he continues to refuse a #UnitedStates proposal. He may have an advantage in defending his own territory because more bombings against nuclear facilities do not cause instability,

1 month ago 0 0 1 0

The second #UnitedStates military intervention against #Iran in less than a year may be imminent following statements by President #DonaldTrump, who leaves only two options open. Either an agreement is reached or there will be more attacks against #Tehran.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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The #UnitedStates Has Few Options To Attack #Iran

olhardireito.blogspot.com/p/english-ve...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

However, the European space will be composed of various ideologies that will have to sit and coexist with each other. This diminishes the desire for change sought by #DonaldTrump, although a saturation with walking hand in hand with partners from the old continent is noticeable.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

Only the independence of that area of ​​the globe can prevent other nations from maintaining the visible economic and political interests. The #UnitedStates administration does not expect major changes in the direction of the #EuropeanUnion, even though movements associated with #MAGA are emerging.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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The likely absence from #NATO does not mean that the #UnitedStates will militarily conquer #Greenland. There may be significant concessions from the Europeans, but never to the point of allowing control of the territory.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

#Europe is prepared to defend itself without American help, who also bear some responsibility for #Russia's willingness to constantly threaten the other side of the Iron Curtain. Different geopolitical strategies will determine that each follows distinct paths in the military field.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

Economic, military, and in some cases political necessity prevents a willingness to break with the old friendship. The increase in defense spending by #European powers is another factor in which the new administration prevailed. However, it does not seem that values ​​above 5% will be accepted.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

The new trade agreement ends up being a positive aspect, although it was only possible at the cost of many concessions, especially from the Europeans, who again showed an inability to question #Washington's intentions.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0

The relationship between the #UnitedStates and the #EuropeanUnion was not very positive in the first year after #Trump's return to the White House. Increased trade tariffs, contributions to #NATO, and #Greenland's sovereignty were the issues that divided the two blocs that make up the #West.

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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The relationship between the #UnitedStates and #EuropeanUnion won´t be special anymore

olhardireito.blogspot.com/p/english-ve...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0