Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's the Dude, in Los Angeles.

Foreign flows into the US are at eye-watering levels. There never was a "sell America" trade and there's no "Hedge America" trade either. Markets ignore much of the political volatility and continue to see the US as the single best growth story out there...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-happe...

A chart of food insecurity of US households from the Purdue University Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability. Food insecurity rises from 2024 to 2025, then falls in January and February 2026.

The USDA discontinued the report on food security but we have private data from Purdue University showing it rose further in 2025. It dipped in early 2026--big news if true. I check this website daily for the March release.

A chart of trends in US food insecurity from 2001-2024. Source: USDA ERS

IMO the secret code to the vibecession debate is food insecurity. It gradually improved from the Great Recession to 2019. Stimulus programs held it at bay in 2020 and the beginning of 2021, then it jumped, and has stayed high since. @aaronsojourner.org @whstancil.bsky.social @gelliottmorris.com

a man in a chef 's hat with the words not great not terrible behind him ALT: a man in a chef 's hat with the words not great not terrible behind him

3.3 CPI. Not great, not terrible.

good grief

As a professional philosopher: this shit happens to us too and the banality and universality of human grievances is, actually, high philosophy and reminds us we’re all in this together, no matter how far from home we roam or how grand our quest

The report says next to nothing about the Iran War's effect on the U.S. economy. There's more we don't know about its impact than what we do know.

The Fed will hold rates steady for at least the next few decisions as they wait to understand the war's effects.

Good news from the March jobs report with employment up 178k.

The first quarter averaged a 68k monthly increase, much better than 2025's near stallout.

Meanwhile, the labor force is flat since early 2025 on immigration restrictions and an aging workforce. (1/2)

Divine Right of the Deal

The Fed sits on its hands as gas soars toward $4/gal and diesel surges above $5. Monetary policy can't fix an oil supply shock.

Question: There have been some searing images in the past two weeks. The school girls who it appears were killed by Tomahawk missiles, which are used by the United States. The destruction of heritage sites [and the] bombing of a city like Isfahan. Answer: Yes. Those things will turn the Iranian public hugely against the United States and Israel. It convinces the population that the US and Israel are not liberators and are out to destroy Iran. It’s not about the regime, it’s about Iran.

Strong recommend for this great interview by Mishal Husain with Vali Nasr, the Iranian-American scholar.

www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

This sounds really good, thanks for the rec!

Time is but a window, they'll be back

BRING BACK CHANNEL ONE

The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply

Yikes, consumer confidence plunged in January to even lower than the depths of the covid shutdown. Political turmoil and job market fears obviously contributing to the drop.

Congrats to whoever wished on the monkey's paw for something to divert the public's attention away from affordability...

Send reskeet <GO>

had a really interesting conversation last night with an investor and died-in-the-wool capitalist where the conclusion was something like, most Americans don't realize that functioning capital markets and the rule of law are America's actual superpowers and those things could absolutely end

lotta people seem to forget Jay Powell is a lawyer (complimentary)

“.. Theme over the past few months: market says bye bye bye to rate cuts.”

- Schwab

2025 job market weakness by theme:

--Tariffs: Manufacturing -68k, warehousing/transportation/wholesale/retail -74k
--DOGE: Fed govt jobs -274k, scientific R&D -20k
--AI: IT industry jobs -54k
--Housing: Construction up just 14k, weakest yr since 2020, 2nd weakest since 2010

chart: the unemployment rate for black workers is up 1.5 percentage points in the last few months through September, per BLS data charted by Fred

Somebody ask Powell about the Black Unemployment Rate pls

After a dearth of economic data, the latest #JOLTS report is out this morning for both Sept and Oct 2025.

Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly

Note: these ignore low points in 2020

Chart of real median weekly earnings per the Bureau of Labor Statistics via St Louis Fred. Annualized and updated to year 2024 prices, they rose from $55k/year in 2015 to $61k/year this year.

Hanging out on the BLS website ahead of the JOLTS release as one does and noticed this astonishing good news about inflation adjusted median earnings, which are up 11% over the last ten years. Annualized it in 2024 dollars to make it a little more intuitive.

Last call for our Shadow Survey! We close it up tonight. Provide your views & you will get a complete set of results to ponder ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Looking at
@peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @claudia-sahm.bsky.social...

survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

I think this is an important next step in our discussions of inflation: It makes a difference *which* prices are rising.