Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

7/7: You can read the full paper and access the data here:
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp...
www.matteoiacoviello.com/deregulation...

6/7. Profits vs. Competition
The nature of deregulation changes over time. Since 1980, the focus has shifted away from consumer price reductions and toward corporate profitability. Modern regulatory relief often impacts incumbent efficiency more than competitive entry.

5/7: Does Deregulation Matter?
Using a structural VAR, we find that deregulation shocks boost GDP, productivity, profits and stock prices. Investment reacts twice as strongly as GDP, confirming that deregulation is a primary catalyst for capital formation.

4/7: News vs. Official Records
When we compare our news index to official records, the lead is even more dramatic. News coverage leads formal Federal Register rule-making by nearly one year, capturing policy intentions long before they are formally implemented.

3/7: The Policy Pipeline
Deregulation isn't an overnight event—it's a process. By splitting the data, we find that news about proposed deregulation leads actual enactment by approximately 40 days, acting as a high-frequency signal for impending shifts.

2/7: It's all about the prompt
We use LLMs for semantic classification to separate the signal from the noise. This allows us to distinguish between "more regulation" and actual "deregulation," focusing strictly on economic impact rather than social policy or tax changes.

1/7: Measurement
We built a news-based index of U.S. deregulation from 1960 through 2025. It captures everything from the landmark transportation acts of the 1970s to the high-intensity de-regulatory environment of early 2025.

How do you measure deregulation before it even happens?
A thread on a new paper with @mattiaco.bsky.social using AI to track 65 years of U.S. regulation and deregulation policy

Oxford comma or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the pause

Same vibe as "I had COVID, it wasn't that bad"

📢 #CallForPapers for the 10th Monash-Paris-Warwick-Zurich-CEPR Text-As-Data #Workshop!

Papers using text, audio, images, or other unstructured data are welcome.

Organisers: @elliottash.bsky.social @essobecker.bsky.social & Philine Widmer
Deadline: 25 August
cepr.org/events/10th-...
#EconSky

Congrats! :)

📢Call for Nominations📢

The SF Fed and its Center for Monetary Research are launching the new Janet Yellen Award!

This award will be given annually to an exceptional early-career researcher who has made significant and policy-relevant contributions to macro-finance and/or monetary economics.

Next step is putting it in a VAR and evaluating the business cycle effects after surprise NBER authorship shocks

Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo

Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you

🖖

🥁🥁 NEW CONFERENCE ALERT 🥁🥁

Monetary Policy after the Inflation Surge

in Oslo on September 22-23 jointly organized with Deutsche Bundesbank and Danmarks Nationalbank. 12th Edition!

Keynote speakers: Corina Boar (NYU), Jordi Galí (CREI) and Vincent Sterk (UCL)

Submission deadline: March 16.

Qual a diferença? Taça é o objeto físico e troféu é o campeonato?

Here is a #starterpack with #centralbank #researchers bsky.app/profile/did:...

www.pudim.com.br

I find that news shocks induce strong anticipation effects in investment and GDP, while consumption and hours worked respond with less clear anticipation patterns.
Let me know your thoughts!
(3/3)

Professional forecast revisions provide signals about how agents update their outlook perceptions. These forecast revisions convey rich information about future productivity that can be used to identify the economic effects of technological news shocks.
(2/3)

Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about agents’ expe…

Thrilled to see my paper "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks" published at the Journal of Monetary Economics!

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

In a nutshell:
(1/3)

@dieworkwear.bsky.social

Looking forward to working with a NANK: No Agents New Keynesian model

DC!

Folha, o que acontece que vocês postam essa quantidade extremamente alta de notícias? Meu feed é metade da Folha, estou quase parando de seguir. Estou aqui pelos 10% que me interessam, mas os outros 90% atrapalham demais. Pq não criam subcontas por tópico?

I always argue that that's why people are so passionate about soccer, where non-transitivity is extremely common. Plus, 0-0 results.

Happy to see the Handbook in print!

Outro dia tentei ir e tinham 103 pessoas na frente na lista de espera