wednesday of draft week, an american tradition

Justin Blackmon. He was the 5th overall pick.

Are we naming dudes - Jaguars receiver edition?

Because if so: Cecil Shorts.

That wouldn't be a terrible outcome for the Cowboys given their history of WR talent evaluation and a quarterback that can elevate his receivers

I feel like Flournoy could have 800-1,000 yards in a healthy season with no Pickens in 2026, and then CeeDee Lamb would play a more definitive WR1 for them

The Cowboys shouldn't extend George Pickens because Ryan Flournoy is good and on a rookie contract

I realized in doing this that Puka Nacua had the 2nd highest yards per route run among wide receiver prospects in their final college seasons since 2023.

Terrible job by the league letting Sean McVay get him in the 5th round.

I would have preferred for Malik Nabers to be on top to sell the metric, ngl

There are three 2026 wide receiver prospects in the top 20 in regressed yards per route run from the last four draft classes: consensus 1st-round picks Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon and presumed 3rd-rounder Skyler Bell from UConn.

Data source: @sportsinfosolutions.com

Tough one for @dennycarter.bsky.social

Yes, I added 300 touches to each RB's ledger with what I found to be the prospect replacement-level broken tackle rate (17.0%).

So Love had 226 actual touches with his actual BMT% (27.0%) and then another 300 touches of 17.0% = 21.3%.

It's a way to balance players with unequal touch totals.

Shout out to @sportsinfosolutions.com for their draft site with many more metrics for prospects at every position.

I did investigate explosive rate, which was something that seemed to match Love's skill set but I didn't find predictive of itself in the NFL.
nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com/stats

But I do wonder if he's more of back-of-all-trades who's a B+ in every facet of the position rather than an A+ explosive back like Gibbs or an A+ tackle-breaker like Bijan.

I'm not a big film-watcher, but I suspect Love wouldn't be a top 10 pick in a class with an average amount of Round 1 talent.

Based solely on those metrics, Love (21.3%/3.09/1.31) looks as much like Omarion Hampton (21.6%/3.02/1.25) and Zach Charbonnet (21.2%/2.94/1.26) as he does Jahmyr Gibbs (21.6%/2.90/1.45).

It's fair to trust scouts that he is more like the latter and has untapped receiving potential with his speed.

Love laps the more run-oriented Jeanty (0.81) with his 1.31 regressed yards per route run.

But again, that rate is more good than great and puts him a tier behind Bijan (1.42) and a popular comp Jahmyr Gibbs (1.45).

Love effectively tied Bijan at the top of the board with his 3.09 regressed yards after contact per attempt.

That mirrors the eye test that Love is explosive. But average YACon is less predictive of itself in NFL rookie seasons, I believe because it depends more on team context e.g. run-blocking.

Fun with RB prospect metrics: Jeremiyah Love had a 21.3% regressed broken tackle rate last season that ranks a modest 20th out of the 110 prospects @sportsinfosolutions.com has charted on their draft site (2023-26).

Surprising since top 10 RB picks Ashton Jeanty and Bijan Robinson rank 1st and 3rd.

UNC alums have been suspicious of Larry Fitzgerald since he started playing every Pebble Beach Pro-Am with Kevin Streelman

Maybe require voters to be old enough to rent a car but not necessarily old enough to run for Senate?

Bhayshul Tuten just wasn't the exact type of running back the Jaguars were looking for with their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd-round draft picks

I will coach the Blazers for free if Tom Dundon lets me make a podcast about it

I can think of several examples of RBs who broke out after high avoided tackle rates with lesser volume or production such as Jaylen Warren, Austin Ekeler, Chris Carson, and Tony Pollard.

I don't know if it is statically rigorous. But hopefully since Jeanty and Hampton broke a lot of tackles.

Jaguars running backs combined for just 56 catches last season, which was fewer than 6 individual running backs and just 1 more than Ashton Jeanty had

And I'm more bullish on JCM than Tuten since he had a standout rookie avoided tackle rate

Are you saying that Tuten's upside is what JCM did last year (which I believe is unappealing in fantasy)?

Are you saying that Tuten is similarly talented to JCM (which I don't believe he is)?

Or something else?

Well you don't know how bad McCarthy might have been if he hadn't had a kid

I see Tuten as an infrequent pass-catcher who's smaller than a new backfield teammate who got a bigger contract than anyone expected - and whose specialty if he has one is as a goal-line TD scorer - who also plays with a quarterback that runs in 5 TDs every year.

I think he's over-discussed.

It's an exaggeration, but the consensus big board isn't flush with running backs ranked higher than Tuten's 104th pick slot from what was perceived to be a deeper draft than this one

My point exactly