If your turnout theory is "the places that would lose a GOP rep are most likely to turn out" this makes perfect sense. Southwest Virginia will be the only Republican district left, Fairfax County won't be affected at all.
It's incredible how hard is he blinking on this but short of sending the Navy up the Strait he doesn't have much choice.
Lots of people think they won't catch a hurricane + plus milder flu season/mild weather really helps with health in old age.
Working-age people are going to Nashville and retirees are going everywhere else basically.
A lot of the retiree traffic is going to South Carolina and Tennessee: SC for beach and TN for extremely low cost of living. The insurance payments and overall home prices are pushing out middle-class retirees.
Florida's explosive growth basically tracks retiree growth and we're pretty close to peak retiree.
Turnout reports aren't as frequent or comprehensive as last November but right now it looks like red areas are ahead of blue areas in Virginia but not enough for "No" to win. They have to hope what independents do show split heavily "No." I don't think that happens.
Despite the efforts of Florida here and the branding an LLM is not a legal person.
It's really incredible that Mark Zuckerberg is inventing new bad business practices on the fly. "We will train our AI to work like you" gonna be very funny when the training data captures some freaks working around the company Internet filters.
Nice ceasefire we had
If I had to guess 53-47.
Most signs pointing to a narrow "Yes" victory. No signs either side will break 2025 turnout yet and both sides running under.
My understanding is they reigned it in quite a bit the past few years and premiums have started to stabilize. For better or worse though tropical environments mean lots of water and wind claims.
Yeah they basically built whole neighborhoods to flood in the event of a hurricane landfall. This is the equivalent of me moving to California and building my house entirely of wood in the driest forest I can find!
5-FINAL/ Point is the desired financial model of cheap insurance isn't sustainable, but if there's another bad weather maybe cheap real estate will be?
4/ But Cape Coral getting almost back-to-back hits two years in a row really woke people up and hit really hit home prices down there. That combined with the Florida basically refusing to regulate the insurance market and crack down on fraudulent claims led to a cost spiral.
3/ If you know anyone who lives in Florida, especially South Florida, lack of major hits since the early 2000s + rapid home appreciation has meant that homeowners, condo associations, etc., have put off sticking people with the real risk price. Hard to convince people to move if they didn't.
2/ How is exactly is the market supposed to price that? They don't do [your home value] x 5%. Instead it's like, your home value x 2%. That seems reasonably fair to me, given that if the situation gets worse your home value will decline, and if the situation gets better less insurance is paid out.
1/ There's sort of a fundamental denialism at play in how Florida operates. If you live on the Florida coastline (and most Floridians do), there's like a 5% chance your home will be seriously wind-damaged or flooded per year. This is higher than anyewhere else but the Gulf Coast.
Bovino
Gonzales
Plano
Too diverse
This is like a parody.
We really did Sicario but incompetently, huh.
MAGA people are dead wrong on this one. Obviously all the skinny blonde girls in American flag bikinis agree with MY political opinions.
"I don't wanna be a conspiracy nut" lmao
This both flirting and harassment, at least after the first time. I’m always impressed how people miss these obvious ones though.
It’s also funny that Apple went from the most dysfunctional big tech company to the most functional in about 10 years. Tim Cook saw exactly what they needed and executed.
Can’t tell you how much I respect Apple for promoting a guy who basically worked his ass off and didn’t decide to become a personal brand.
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Maine coast is okay but yeah upstate is basically North Dakota.
Capcom made a video game with a pretty innocent adoptive father/daughter relationship and that doesn't sit well with the total psychopaths that inhabit the Internet.
The way conservatives have gotten so protective of SCOTUS's sanctity makes me think there's a lot more mess there that they don't want us to know about.