Trump’s Ukraine policy is based on fabricated numbers ($350bn). His Russia policy is based on fabricated numbers (majority support for Russia in occupied territory). Why are we surprised that his trade policy is also based on fabricated numbers?
Will Europeans Boycott the US? | "There is real anger in Europe over the US treatment of Ukraine. It may develop in unexpected ways." @elisabethbraw.bsky.social
Harnessing that change through a vision of a new type of warfare that would make the old obsolete
- b/c of the pace of change & the massive increases in combat power that it could deliver if mastered.
See eg from Andrew Krepinevich &
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Well worth a read. Lawrence has been good all the way through the Ukraine invasion at not extrapolating out too wildly, and showing how each stage of conflict/geopolitics is contingent on choices that are to be made, rather than everything being predetermined or predictable
This is worth a million tweets of the kind he was criticized for not doing yesterday. Excellent stuff.
A superb essay on Ukraine peace negotiations and the Zelenskyy- Trump issue from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
samf.substack.com/p/two-steps-...
All we need for peace in Ukraine is for Russian soldiers to return to Russia.
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...
"Nu de gebeurtenissen zich op zo veel fronten bruusk ontvouwen, is het aan de Europeanen zelf om te kiezen uit tragische, boze, pastorale, pamfletterende en ironische tonen om onze geschiedenis te schrijven."
For eight decades, America’s alliances with other democracies were the bedrock of American foreign policy, trade policy, and cultural influence.
No longer
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
This is a fascinating talk - must see/listen!!
A Chat With Paul Krugman open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
"It is clear that the US can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally for Europeans... [who] need to start preparing fast for the day when the US security guarantee to Europe is definitively removed"
@gideonrachman.bsky.social's searing conclusion from a weekend in Munich
www.ft.com/content/11f1...
Hi All--Just sent out this piece (free for all) on the most important example of Trump and Putin aligning. Its about the issue of Ukrainians holding elections soon. Before the US elections, neither Trump nor Kellogg cared about the issue--but for Putin is was key. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
"Looking back at the 1930s, we used to wonder how it seemed that everybody could see war coming but do nothing to stop it. Now we understand, as we see the same mistakes repeated one after another."
In a sane world, "move fast and break things" and "National Nuclear Security Administration" probably should not be in the same sentence.
Just to be erring on the safe side, us Europeans should operate under the assumption that this, now, actually is the worst case.
It's been over 6 months since Ukraine captured part of fascist Russia's territory. Russia has been unable to dislodge the Ukrainian occupying force, even with the help of North Korean special forces (who got mauled). Russia is weak, and Ukraine can win the war - if Kyiv gets enough support.
Peace agreements will only work when Putin has lost all hope of victory. Let's make that happen.
Reads 'Who Downed MH17' with the National Geographic logo and 'New Series, Thursday at 20:30pm'
You can watch the first episode in the Netherlands under the title ‘Who Downed MH17’ on February 6th at 20:30pm www.natgeotv.com/nl/programma...
Very important at the strategic level as well.
It must be clear that there can be no peace deal with Russia without Putin and his associates standing trial for their crimes. All of our governments must insist on this essential condition.
The logic of the coup that is going on now. And how to resist it.
snyder.substack.com/p/the-logic-...
Just sent out my weekend update, free as always. An ominous week for democracies in general and Ukraine in particular, as not just Trump, but also Rubio and Kellogg start spreading the Russian narrative. They are now talking up Russian power and undermining Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
And there is this. A big issue. The biggest in fact. Ukraine is not losing.
I have to think, again, of Max Frisch's de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biederm.... It has all been announced, in clear daylight, and nobody believes it, nobody acts.
1-15
A Washington Post article states that U.S. and European officials told the newspaper, anonymously, that they now lean towards believing that the incidents that damaged subsea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea were mere accidents.
I am very sceptical 🧵
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Too easy, too easy ...
Last week a few media (FT, Metro, Newsweek, others) pinged me for comment after Donald Tusk spoke about Russia planning terrorist attacks targeting airliners. The responses to that coverage are mildly interesting in a couple of ways.
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www.newsweek.com/putin-terror...
