I've added a couple new SST products that will come in handy this year! The first is a comparison to OISST records. The +PMM certainly stands out here. Another is the ENSO Longitude Index! Its recent shift tells us the warm pool in the West Pacific is moving eastward

But wait, there's more! Signal of another WWB (and perhaps some TC activity) early next month as the MJO comes through the Pacific again. There won't be a shortage of these in the summer!

I've added seasonal stats for the rest of the globe on cyclonicwx.com's homepage. It will be interesting to see how active some of the Pacific basins will get this year!

There goes the cold tongue... #ElNino

I've added some Hovmoller plots to the Current Analysis page! Now you can see the evolution of zonal wind and velocity potential over the last 6 months. Notable eastward shifts with both! Sign of the atmosphere shifting towards El Nino

Big changes afoot in the Pacific. The past month of WWB activity has pushed a great amount of warm water to the dateline, and the +PMM continues to intensify. We'll soon have the powerful warm pool surface, and by the end of the month may have a solid El Nino signature

#Sinlaku continues its ERC as it closes in on Tinian and Saipan. Conditions are deteriorating at Saipan International Airport with the outer eyewall beginning to come in. Pressures getting quite low and gusts up to near 90kt are being reported! Keep up with surface obs at cyclonicwx.com/storms/

#Sinlaku has moved into range of PGUA radar, and there are some radar returns from the eyewall now. As it progresses through its ERC, we will have an extra data source to monitor how far along it is

Sunrise on #Sinlaku, as the super typhoon slowly approaches the Mariana Islands

After an impressive bout of RI, #Sinlaku looks much different at sunset than at sunrise. Classic super typhoon look now

#Sinlaku is rapidly intensifying, with its eye now totally clear. Looks like it will be a super typhoon within the next 12 hours. It will continue to impress on satellite for the next few days! Impressive early season typhoon heralding a likely strong El Niño this year

After dealing with some shear, #Sinlaku is continuing to intensify. Its eye is trying to clear in the middle of the very deep convection wrapping around it, supporting a strength of ~95kt, supporting JTWC. Dangerous storm for the southern Marianas Islands early this week

Our WWB is getting underway now, enhanced by #Maila to the south. #90W should also develop by late week, keeping this WWB impressively strong into the weekend. The subsurface warm pool will become even stronger as a result as we head towards a strong or super El Niño this winter

Right after the medicane, we've got another neat convective low outside the tropics, this time right off the coast of Alaska! Great structure for a polar low. Hard to believe SSTs are only a few degrees above freezing

As the warm pool surfaces, we're seeing a solid warm tongue in the east Pacific heralding the beginnings of this year's El Niño. Get used to seeing this feature grow and stick around for the next year!

In addition to radar, I've set up a custom floater for the nor'easter. See it in all the enhancements you would see with a tropical cyclone, including surface observations!

The well-advertised winter storm has begun, dropping rain and snow across wide swathes of the NE and Mid-Atlantic. Look at that evaporational cooling in Delaware!

Keep tabs on the progress of this storm at cyclonicwx.com/radar/nemetro/!

Neat returns on Melbourne radar this evening following the Indian River. Not too sure exactly what's going on here but looks cool

I'm changing the way that the model plots are generated and ECMWF got caught in a bug with that. 18z looks like it's back to normal

Though still murky thanks to warm water off Japan the PDO is looking more positive than most times this decade. You can see the +PMM connect with warmth in the WPAC as well. This has been slowly headed east. El Nino is on the way and it should have more PDO support than 2023

January's WWBs have taken effect in the subsurface. The warm pool at the dateline is becoming stronger as another downwelling Kelvin Wave loads up. Will give us another push towards El Niño

I've added some new models to the lineup! The AI GFS and the Canadian suite (GEM/GEPS ensembles) are now available, you can see just about any solution from the major global models! Long time coming

A tale of two extremes in the CONUS today. Numerous and widespread daily/monthly record lows fell last night with the impressively cold airmass in the SE. At the same time, Western ridging means some areas there have broken daily temperature records. Very uneven pattern!

Once again, there is snow in Florida. A bit of moisture from the snowstorm in the Carolinas has made its way to the Florida panhandle, where it is cold enough to snow. Have seen numerous reports of snow out of Tallahassee. That's how you know this cold blast is the real deal!

As the coastal low develops, it will bring a very cold Arctic airmass south into Florida. This will lead to freezes in much of the state during the weekend in the state's biggest cold snap since 2010. < -10C at 850mb is about as low as it ever gets in Central Florida!

With the winter storm's squall line entering the area of CAD, a large portion of it has turned into sleet and freezing rain. You certainly don't see that every day!

I've added the HRRR model to my site as well, as the winter storm ramps up. Good tool to have when short-term changes dominate

The winter storm that has been talked about all week has begun producing widespread wintry precipitation over the Southern Plains. It will become far more expansive during the weekend and reach all the way to the East Coast. Stay safe and stay inside if you can during the storm!

I've added the AIFS model from ECMWF. A popular request! It's nice to have the capabilities to add all these new models now

The result is a large, long-lived winter storm this weekend into Monday. Warmer, moister air aloft interacting with a cold surface layer means widespread icy conditions. Keep an eye on updates if you are in the area impacted and make sure to be prepared for the potential of heavy snow and/or ice