CalledThird — Data-driven baseball analysis for the thinking fan Original data-driven baseball analysis, automated umpire reports, and interactive tools. CalledThird tests baseball

Cam Schlittler's Three-Fastball Blueprint

231 pitches, 22 K, 0 BB.

#MLB #Pitching #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/schlittler-thre...

After a Fight, the Zone Gets Cleaner — CalledThird 7 bench-clearing brawls, 6 complete pairs. The zone doesn

After a Fight, the Zone Gets Cleaner

7 bench-clearing brawls, 6 complete pairs.

#MLB #Umpires #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/the-zone-after-a-fight

Two Myths the Data Kills — CalledThird Pitchers don

Two Myths the Data Kills

Pitchers don't measurably lose their command late in games (r = 0.007).

#MLB #Sabermetrics #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/two-myths-the-d...

The Count Tells You Everything — CalledThird We tried to predict the next pitch with machine learning on 729,827 pitches. XGBoost beat the marginal baseline by 2.1pp — but beat the count-conditional baseline by only 0.5pp. The count already encodes nearly all predictive information.

The Count Tells You Everything

We built a pitch prediction model on 729,827 pitches.

#MLB #Statcast #Sabermetrics #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/the-count-tells...

The Anatomy of a Missed Call — CalledThird We applied the ABS strike zone model to 379,155 called pitches from the 2025 MLB season. Umpires miss 7.2% of the time — 10.9 wrong calls per game — and accuracy falls off a cliff at the zone edge.

The Anatomy of a Missed Call

379,155 called pitches, a 7.2% miss rate, and the half-inch cliff where human judgment breaks down.

#MLB #ABS #RobotUmps #Umpires #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/anatomy-of-a-mi...

Catcher Framing in the ABS Era — CalledThird 74 catchers, 200+ borderline pitches each, and an 18.7 percentage point gap between the best and worst framers. In the ABS challenge era, good framing may gain value — not lose it.

Catcher Framing in the ABS Era

74 catchers, an 18.7 percentage point gap between best and worst framers, and a counterintuitive finding: in the ABS challenge era, good framing ma...

#MLB #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/catcher-framing...

Which Pitchers Can You Predict? — CalledThird We trained ML models on 73,735 pitches from 14 elite starters. The broad thesis failed — but five pitchers stood out. Chris Sale

Which Pitchers Can You Predict?

We trained XGBoost on 729,827 pitches to predict the next pitch.

#MLB #Statcast #Pitching #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/which-pitchers-...

ABS Challenge Strategy: What 541 Challenges Reveal — CalledThird 541 ABS challenges, 55% overturned. The fielder side challenges more and wins more. The challenge system is quietly favoring defense. Data from the first 11 days of ABS.

The Challenge System Is Quietly Favoring Defense

541 ABS challenges, 55% overturned, and a 10-percentage-point gap between the fielder side and batters.

#MLB #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/abs-challenge-strategy

The Umpire Effect: How Much Does It Actually Matter? — CalledThird For every game this season, we computed how many runs the umpire

The Umpire Effect: How Much Does It Matter?

For every game this season, we computed the run-value impact of every wrong call.

#MLB #Umpires #Analytics #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/the-umpire-effect

Four Kinds of Zone: What 83 Umpires Tell You Before First Pitch — CalledThird 83 umpires, 380,000 pitches, and a 21-point gap in how they call the borderline. A two-axis framework for understanding zone styles.

Four Kinds of Zone

83 umpires, 380,000 pitches, and a 21-percentage-point gap in borderline strike rates.

#MLB #Umpires #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/four-kinds-of-zone

Do Pitchers Lose Their Command? — CalledThird 4,892 starts, 729K pitches. The average pitcher

Do Pitchers Lose Their Command?

4,892 starts, 729K pitches.

#MLB #Pitching #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

calledthird.com/analysis/do-pitchers-los...

The Fireman 4,044 reliever entries, 6,516 inherited runners, and a steep outs gradient that determines most of the outcome before the reliever throws a pitch.

The Fireman's Dilemma

4,044 reliever entries, 6,516 inherited runners.

#MLB #Bullpen #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/the-firemans-dilemma

CB Bucknor by the Numbers — CalledThird 4,174 pitches, 28 games, and the worst average miss distance in MLB. What the data says about baseball

CB Bucknor by the Numbers

4,174 pitches, 3rd worst accuracy in MLB, and the highest average miss distance of any umpire.

#MLB #Umpires #ABS #RobotUmps #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

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The Walk Rate Spike: Umpires or Pitchers? — CalledThird 2026 walk rate is 9.67% — up nearly a full point from 2025. The ABS system isn

The Walk Rate Spike: Umpires or Pitchers?

Walk rate is up nearly a full point in 2026.

#MLB #ABS #RobotUmps #Analytics #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/the-walk-rate-spike

The Wrong-Way Slider: Imai Tatsuya Imai

The Wrong-Way Slider: Imai's Impossible Pitch

Tatsuya Imai's slider breaks 10.4 inches the wrong way — 0th percentile among all RHP sliders.

#MLB #Pitching #Statcast #BaseballAnalytics #CalledThird

https://calledthird.com/analysis/the-wrong-way-slider