I am a PhD computer engineer who works outside academia and I approve this message.

Err, meant to write 2024-2025 instead of 2022.

What are your opinions on these two possible differences from 2022:
- the forward earnings may be less realizable due to the oil disruption, especially for earnings made overseas, also due to forex risk; your follow-up tweet on oil seems to imply this is not an issue?
- the predicted fed rate

They are using transformers when they should be using alphazero.

Were they trying to adapt after losing the war?

To be honest, this is a free benefit of the fact that we rewrite our frameworks periodically once we hit a critical mass of developers doing the same task in ten different ways. Abstracting away the scaffolding creates very tight guardrails which both developers and LLMs can follow.

Coding LLMs feel much more capable in a company that uses a large monorepo and has a solid Intranet that documents design patterns. I suppose this emergent capability is yet another example of network effects.

Although large institutional investors, e.g. pension funds, are larger players presumably since they have the capital ready to deploy for construction.

This is basically the REI customers are owners cooperative model but for housing.

Or alternatively Wohnbaugenossenschaften.

The amazing part is that Nvidia only has 36000 employees, half of which are based in the US.

As a further thought experiment, suppose the GPU is sent to Germany. What are the German customs supposed to do, tax it for how much and according to which origin country tariffs?

It just looks too much like the Nvidia revenue graph, order of magnitude-wise as well.

And yes, I understand that the unit count went up, perhaps it's just that.

That's why I wrote "I suppose", I don't know for sure how the accounting is done but the other costs except for Nvidia's profit are fixed, so they would not explain the increase we see on the graph. Perhaps they "exported" the design work and now they are "importing" it in the final product.

They keep most of the sale value, they just need to pay TSMC for the chip manufacturing, pay the memory, the packaging, etc but most of the cost is for the digital design that Nvidia does.

I suppose this is the tag price of the chips being imported but most of the product cost actually lands with Nvidia. Also, iirc these are not tariffed.

but why?

What about the option that they should not have made that argument better? A lot of misreading stems from not setting the appropriate tone and context.

This is great and may well be justified given their monthly active users number. I just wish they would go to public markets so that investors could take part in the growth.

What are your expectations going forward?

The $800 gets you about 200 miles with Waymo in Los Angeles. Conversely, if you need to ride less than 100-200 miles a month then sticking to Waymo is a good alternative. Especially if you have a grocery delivery subscription.

They are switching to Hyundai Ioniq 5.

Two questions for the two of you:
1) Does this recent experience make you more optimistic regarding an ai productivity revolution/economic boom?
2) Did you try deep research models as well? I find them much more precise.

I thought that Nvidia production is oversubscribed so they can withstand loss of some customers up to the point that the most of the AI industry collapses, which is more of a tail end scenario that this one.

To continue one step further, the rent to own cost ratio in SF is lower than almost everywhere else. This creates an incentive to keep renting and tilts the statistic to make renting look more affordable since you go higher in the income distribution before people filter out by buying.

We have a saying: "Everyone is an expert when it comes to soccer and politics". Both these areas of punditry somehow fit with your definition.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsu

Dan Wang was on Odd Lots recently, I believe a lot more than a dozen people have the necessary context for this tweet.

It depends on whether you need to add the opportunity cost of labor on top of the productivity gains and whether the overall gain is only justified at the earning levels of men. My feeling is that you can easily find alternatives where the productivity gain is the only factor needed.