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Posts by Jacob Rubashkin

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Quite surreal to read staffers and a congresswoman strategizing on how to avoid giving answers to my own questions.

Here Cherfilus-McCormick's district chief tells the press secretary to be as "vague as possible with no specifics" in her answers.

4 hours ago 1 0 0 0
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Tbt:

Cherfilus-McCormick insisted on including a line in her office’s statement to me disavowing knowledge of her own campaign’s actions or plans. In the next text, she dictated her campaign’s next move. Elsewhere, she and staffers talked office & campaign business in the same thread.

4 hours ago 1 0 1 0
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The Congresswoman and the Taxpayer-funded TV Ads How a Florida congresswoman used taxpayer funds for TV ads.

Nearly 4 years ago I wrote the first story detailing Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's shady finances and potential breach of House ethics rules. Her office stonewalled me and tried to lead me off course.

Today, she resigned. What a ride it's been!

4 hours ago 32 2 2 0

More Hispanic-majority areas in NJ-11 special:

Dover, Morris County (77% Hispanic)

2020: Biden 67-32 (+35)
2024: Harris 54-41 (+13)
2025: Sherrill 66-29 (+37)
***
2026: Mejia 71-29 (+42)

Turnout in Dover was about 1/4 of 2024, vs 1/3 for the district overall.

4 days ago 26 3 0 0

Checking in on some majority-Hispanic areas in the NJ-11 special election.

Belleville Township (50.2% Hispanic)

2020: Biden 61-38 (+23)
2024: Harris 51-47 (+4)
2025: Sherrill 63-37 (+26)
***
2026: Mejia 65-35 (+30)

4 days ago 191 28 3 2

🚨We're hiring🚨

Inside Elections is looking to hire a Reporter/Analyst to help us cover the most competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial races around the country.

Is that you? If so, you should apply!

DMs are open for questions as well.

1 week ago 20 11 0 1

*Great* opportunity to work with the best people. Highly recommend this for an early-career elections analyst.

1 week ago 11 5 0 0
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🚨We're hiring🚨

Inside Elections is looking to hire a Reporter/Analyst to help us cover the most competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial races around the country.

Is that you? If so, you should apply!

DMs are open for questions as well.

1 week ago 20 11 0 1
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Overall, Shawn Harris improved upon Kamala Harris's GA-14 margin by 25%. He lost by 12 while she lost by 37.

But in the five most Hispanic precincts in the district, he improved upon her margin by a whopping 42%. He won them by 28% while she lost them by 14%.

1 week ago 823 181 18 19
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Overall, Shawn Harris improved upon Kamala Harris's GA-14 margin by 25%. He lost by 12 while she lost by 37.

But in the five most Hispanic precincts in the district, he improved upon her margin by a whopping 42%. He won them by 28% while she lost them by 14%.

1 week ago 823 181 18 19

In majority Hispanic Antioch precinct, Harris won 67-33% tonight. That’s 4 points better than Democrats did combined in the first round, and 46 points better than the 2024 President margin of Trump+12.

1 week ago 48 7 1 0

Democrats actually did even better in heavily Hispanic Dalton than in the first round, which was already a massive swing from Kamala’s 2024 performance.

Shawn Harris won these two Hispanic-majority precincts by 73% — +3 from in March and a whopping 51% improvement over 2024.

1 week ago 189 54 2 2

Imagine trust in polling being at an all time low and then doing “polls” where a quarter of respondents are AI agents hallucinating answers based on exit polling.

4 weeks ago 781 263 29 52
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Found The Other The Other Wes Moore

4 weeks ago 7 0 0 0

The IL-09 outside money has tried everything to boost Laura Fine:
-pro-Fine ads
-anti-Biss ads
-anti-Kat ads

None of it has worked so now they’re trying to boost a third progressive in hopes she siphons votes from Biss and Kat. A 5D chess move that mostly signals desperation.

1 month ago 34 8 1 2

Counting in Whitfield Co. is all done in the GA-14 special election:

The most Hispanic precincts and how they voted in 2024 vs tonight:

5A (64% Hispanic CVAP): Kamala +21, Dems +74
6A (69%): Kamala +23, Dems +64
AN (48%): Trump +14, Dems +30
ES (39%): Trump +41, GOP +4
GL (32%): Trump +39, GOP +13

1 month ago 141 32 3 16
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Counting in Whitfield Co. is all done in the GA-14 special election:

The most Hispanic precincts and how they voted in 2024 vs tonight:

5A (64% Hispanic CVAP): Kamala +21, Dems +74
6A (69%): Kamala +23, Dems +64
AN (48%): Trump +14, Dems +30
ES (39%): Trump +41, GOP +4
GL (32%): Trump +39, GOP +13

1 month ago 141 32 3 16

One particular thing I'm watching in the Georgia 14 special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene: how does majority-Hispanic city Dalton in Whitfield County vote?

We know a Republican is going to win this seat, but will Democrats continue to overperform among Hispanic voters?

1 month ago 71 11 4 1

Brough is the highest-profile Republican to file against Min, whose Orange County district would have voted for Harris by 10 points. In Southern California, CA-47 is a lower priority for both parties than CA-45, CA-48, and probably even CA-40 at this point.

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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NEWS | Former California state Assemblyman Bill Brough (R) filed to run for Congress against Rep. Dave Min in CA-47.

In 2020, Brough was accused by at least 6 women of sexual assault or harassment. archive.ph/zdj24

1 month ago 4 1 2 0
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Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

Potential backlash to a last-minute maneuver by Steve Daines circumventing a GOP primary in favor of his chosen successor, plus an intriguing independent candidacy backed by some Democrats, makes Montana’s sleepy Senate race worth watching this fall.

Solid R ➡️ Likely R

My take:

1 month ago 4 1 1 0
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Got some questions about my pickle pin last night — it’s a piece of Texas history!

Congressman Jake Pickle represented Austin for 32 years. A close confidant of LBJ, Pickle was one of the only Southern Democrats to vote for all three major Civil Rights laws of the 1960s.

1 month ago 15 2 1 0
For more than a decade, I lived undocumented in the US. Every day carried the same uncertainty and fear lived in my body - a tight chest, shallow breaths, racing heart. What I thought was my private, chronic dread has now become a shared national wound. This now-daily violence is not
"law and order." It is terror inflicted on people who contribute, love, and build their lives here.
It's devastatingly cruel and unAmerican
•

For more than a decade, I lived undocumented in the US. Every day carried the same uncertainty and fear lived in my body - a tight chest, shallow breaths, racing heart. What I thought was my private, chronic dread has now become a shared national wound. This now-daily violence is not "law and order." It is terror inflicted on people who contribute, love, and build their lives here. It's devastatingly cruel and unAmerican •

John Fetterman’s wife Gisele posted this an hour ago in response to yesterday’s events but I haven’t seen the senator say anything publicly or issue any statements.

2 months ago 701 139 33 54

Five years ago Kash Patel went on rabid anti-Semite Stew Peters’ podcast to offer free legal services to Kyle Rittenhouse (rumble.com/vpi004-ritte...)

Patel later told the Senate Judiciary committee he wasn’t familiar with Peters despite appearing on his show 8 times.

2 months ago 13 3 0 0
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Has any House member received more New York Times profiles than MGP on how she is the answer for Democrats? I count at least six since 2023, averaging about one every six months.

3 months ago 15 1 1 3
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Readers of @InsideElections were the first to hear about Seth Bodnar’s potential Montana Senate run all the way back in July 2025! If you’re not reading our Senate overviews, you’re (way) behind. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

3 months ago 7 0 0 0

We’re calling it “Whiskey Fridays,” Lemon. It scores great with men age 38-52 who sleep in race car beds.

3 months ago 68 7 1 0
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Alaska Senate: Peltola Puts Seat on Battleground Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

🚨Alaska Senate moves from Solid Republican to LEAN REPUBLICAN with former Rep. Mary Peltola’s entrance into the race.

Democrats have a narrow path to a Senate majority that got slightly wider today. Read more here: www.insideelections.com/news/article...

3 months ago 15 1 1 1
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The gap between how the Democratic Party operates on social media and the party’s actual leaders has never been wider.

Democratic leaders have kept Mamdani at arms length for months. Meanwhile, on the official party TikTok:

3 months ago 72 15 4 2

Might have to start calling it the Weissand Effect

3 months ago 15 2 0 0