The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close. @andrewleber.bsky.social weighed in.

How the Saudis Keep Sidestepping a Costly Role in the Iran War The brutal Gulf monarchy has been cheerleading Trump’s insane war off-stage but won’t commit to any direct role in the conflict

For @thenation.com I look at why the Saudis are telling Trump to escalate from the sidelines, and what it says about the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. With gratitude for insights from @andrewleber.bsky.social and @philbrickyadav.bsky.social.

www.thenation.com/article/worl...

Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy performance – delivering material benefits to citizens. When do citizens respond to these appeals? Standard explanations emphasize national...

New publication!
@govjournal.bsky.social
Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy perf. When do citizens respond? @andrewleber.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social highlight the role of hist. legacies of development in labor-market views in Saudi Arabia
doi.org/10.1111/gove...

You can follow the money any way you like, but at the end of the day asking "qui bono?" suggests that MBS not the motive force here.

I've mostly left this site but the idea MBS is pulling the strings here is such an amazingly crackpot theory I had to interject to say as such.

This Israeli government unfortunately not known for prioritizing global conventions over short-term destruction.

FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?

By a mostly party-line vote of 47 to 53 (Rand a yes, Fetterman a no), the Senate has failed take back authority over war. The mad king keeps getting to do what he wants!

Still, this is no 2001 AUMF (98-0 in the Senate) or 2002 Iraq War AUMF (77-23 in the Senate). We're at the low ceiling of the war

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing plays into Shiite Islam’s reverence for martyrs, but not for all Iranians Khamenei was a deeply polarizing figure in Iran – perceived by some as a martyr and others as an oppressor.

"It is against this backdrop that Khamenei’s actions leading up to the American and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 that cost him his life must be seen."

@ericlob.bsky.social

theconversation.com/ayatollah-al...

Screenshot that says: Amid the open-ended war that the United States and Israel kicked off this weekend, each of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been targeted—and in some cases hit—by Iranian drone and missile strikes. The strikes sparked fires near luxury hotels in Dubai, caused panic at Kuwait’s international airport, and put Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery out of commission. In an interview with CNN, President Donald Trump called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war so far. It shouldn’t have been surprising. During the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in the president’s first term, the Islamic Republic backed attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf as well as Saudi oil infrastructure, each of which dampened GCC support for overt confrontation of Iran.

Wrote up initial observations on the war & what Pres. Trump called its "biggest surprise"* for
@carnegieendowment.org

*(it won't surprise you that he shouldn't have been surprised)

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Who Is Ali Khamenei? Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not a crazy, irrational, or reckless zealot searching for opportunities for aggression, as this sweeping intellectual profile shows. That means there’s room for the United St...

And an earlier profile from 2013

www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

Will Iran’s Next Supreme Leader Be Its Last? Khamenei’s Succession Dilemma and the Future of the Islamic Republic

From Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji last year for @foreignaffairs.com on Khamenei and what comes next (1/2, gift links)

www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

“The MESA/AAUP report documents in vivid detail the cost of both Biden’s and Trump’s weaponization of antidiscrimination law... The immediate victims are pro-Palestinian activists and critics of Israel. The ultimate victims will be everyone.” Important piece by Mohammed Fadel

archive.ph/8tbOM

‘Crisis of his own making’: Donald Trump weighs another war with Iran The US military build-up was designed to coerce Tehran — but has failed

From @financialtimes.com (2/23), Israeli intelligence warning that the United States can only sustain a week of military strikes despite buildup:

www.ft.com/content/0408...

Trump's top general warns of Iran strike risks Vice President Vance has also raised concerns internally

Similar article today from Barak Ravid/Axios suggesting Caine, Vance, Kushner, Witkoff are main voices of caution.

www.axios.com/2026/02/23/i...

Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private

NYT (2/23), Gen. Caine warning of "a potentially high risk of American casualties" (per "people briefed on internal administration deliberations").

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/u...

Lindsey Graham frets that Trump's advisers oppose Iran strike Graham urged Trump to ignore them and pull the trigger.

Lindsey Graham frets to Axios/Barak Ravid (2/21) about "voices who counsel against getting entangled" and his sense that "voices opposing entanglement and the risk associated with decisive action are getting louder."

www.axios.com/2026/02/22/g...

Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private

A surge of recent reporting about internal concerns over U.S. strikes on Iran:

From NYT (2/22), per "officials with knowledge of the meeting," Trump's lack of a clear strategy and military officials' concerns about readiness & supplies.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/u...

My article with @andrewleber.bsky.social is out now in @govjournal.bsky.social!

Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia
doi.org/10.1111/gove...

U.S. war on/with Iran looking v likely based on troop positioning, Trump's statements, lack of overlap in bargaining positions, and more.

Decision-making is very much down to Trump himself, with his thinking heavily informed by a belief that his Middle East/military "gambles" have paid off before.

In a new article for @govjournal.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & I examine labor-market views in Saudi Arabia to argue that "historical legacies of development substantially affect perceptions of regime [policy] performance in the long run." [Open Access]

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Worst of both worlds in that case.

The other site is evil but it doesn't turn your brain into mush like this site seems to.

Thread of great coverage of MN

If you are in the DC area and interested in discussing US policy toward Iran (and related concerns) in on off-site/offline capacity DM/reach out!

Laissez les bons temps rouler ⚜️

Why Is the UAE Hosting Ukraine-Russia Talks? YouTube video by Carnegie Explains

Last week, the UAE hosted talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. It’s the latest example of Gulf monarchies positioning themselves as important venues for diplomacy. But what do they get out of hosting talks like these?

@andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/U9qqE...

What's Saudi Arabia's image rehab all about? There's a growing divide between "haves" and "have-nots" in the country.

Spoke with @eoinhiggins.bsky.social for @eko.org about what the Clintons (and Tucker Carlson) are doing in Riyadh for a real estate conference:

ekonews.substack.com/p/whats-saud...

BREAKING: Federal agent shoots man in south Minneapolis A Bring Me The News reporter was near the scene, and recorded multiple gunshots.

Every Dem who voted for more ICE funding voted for this.

Every pundit spinning reasons why ICE can't be abolished condones this.

bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne...

They Wanted a University Without Cancel Culture. Then Dissenters Were Ousted. Inside the civil war at the anti-woke university backed by Bari Weiss.

Gosh, the university funded by the Palantir exec turned out to be a right-wing infuence op rather than a paragon of free speech and open inquiry?

www.politico.com/news/magazin...