We can argue about what name to give it, and who might or might not be in it, but I think that Nate has identified a clear group here:
1) Small tent-ism.
2) Appeals to authority through credentialism.
3) A tendency to catastrophising.
Is that the bullet point?
But the 2nd paper I linked is a little different. It supposes (as a primitive) that the policymaker tries to avoid bond market volatility. Here's a PDF:
scholar.harvard.edu/files/stein/...
That is Woodford's suggestion, yes.
This is another fun one on the same question (albeit with a different answer!): www.jstor.org/stable/26654...
Hey @t0nyyates.bsky.social, this is the paper I was referring to earlier today: www.jstor.org/stable/3648627
A fantastic thread and incredibly useful set of estimates.
Yeah, but it's being distributed by a bloody Australian!
"I don't know anyone who is confident of their forecast" -- Powell
A £1.1 billion investment in the British Library is going ahead. Big expansion in an area of London that is rapidly becoming a cultural and learning centre.
Having your currency best charted with a log-scale is just such an awful place to be.
The @economist.com on Europe’s task to preserve what’s left of the West. Remarkably strong words.
A great thread on why US social security numbers are not, and cannot act as, unique identifiers.
Imagine going back to early 2013, less than a month into Obama’s second term, to tell people that a perfectly valid headline, 12 years hence, would be “President Trump launches trade war against Canada. Crypto falls across the board.”
Leopard: I will eat your face
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp
I’m not sure I understand you here. Even the simplest Cobb-Douglas production function has K in it along with A and L, and the rate of investment in the UK has been sluggish (at best) for many years now.
TIL that there is a <takes a deep breath> trans, Guido Fawkes mask-wearing, vegan, effective altruist, rationalist splinter group with a particular interest in AI Risk researchers that has descended into a weird murder cult across America.
x.com/aella_girl/s...
If I understand things correctly, with both the PM and CX both throwing their weight behind a third runway for Heathrow, the "ambitious" goal is for planning permission to be granted "by the end of this parliament" (i.e. in around four years). Is that right?
From a welfare perspective, Deepseek is amazing. It delivers a productivity boost over existing LLMs and being OSS it immediately gets universal dissemination. That is positive for GDP, even if it is negative for the ability of Nvidia or commercial operators of LLMs to cream off some economic rent.
I lean towards Andy’s views. I think that philosophising about whether Trump should be taken literally, seriously, neither or both is largely pointless. He should be taken at his word when talking about policy, but it should also be acknowledged that he’s open to change: everything is negotiable.
I particularly like the idea of local councils getting to retain any increase in business rates collected from large new investments in their areas to help align incentives.
This, from two Sams (@samdumitriu.bsky.social and @sambowman.co), is excellent: www.sambowman.co/p/growth-is-...
Wait, *what*?
“It is a criminal offence [under the Offences against the Person Act, introduced in 1861] to have an abortion after 24 weeks or without approval from two doctors”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Wait. What?
WhatsApp wins legal victory against NSO Group in Pegasus hacking case on.ft.com/49PYMQs
Common sense prevails.
🔥
While I’m talking about information and its flow being the bedrock of state capacity, the ONS is criminally underfunded and physically placed in entirely the wrong location.
For he love of all that is holy, can @bsky.app *please* update its iOS app to rotate images if I rotate my phone?
As with previous spikes in activity on @bsky.app, that spike is now running off pretty steeply.
You laugh, but the inability to combine records across, or even within, major public services is a significant drag on the government’s ability to actually deliver those services.