Perhaps surprisingly, a similar investigation from the Daily Mail did not lead to a prosecution. www.legalfutures.co.uk/latest-news/...
Posts by Migration Observatory
A BBC investigation has discovered a 'shadow industry' of advisers and law firms that is seemingly helping migrants fabricate asylum claims by pretending to be gay. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Home Office monthly stats are out today.The data show that applications for Health & Care and Skilled Worker visas continue to fall. Meanwhile, the share of dependants is rising in both routes, even after restrictions on H&C dependants. What’s driving this trend is not entirely clear. Any thoughts?💡
A compelling review of @msumption.bsky.social's fab new book "What is Immigration Policy For?" from the inimitable @colinyeo.bsky.social - who takes an unusually authoritarian stance:
"...I’m half-minded to suggest Clockwork Orange-style forced reading"
freemovement.org.uk/book-review-...
Our Director @msumption.bsky.social talks to the Migration Policy Institute about her new book on immigration policy and why it is so difficult for governments to manage
@migrationpolicy.bsky.social
7,500 small boat arrivals had been removed from the UK by the end of '25 - 4% of all arrivals since '18.
Small boats accounted for 41% of all asylum apps last year, and arrivals remained more likely to get protection with a 61% grant rate.
More below:
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
What is immigration policy for? Register now for this Institute for Government event with former Home Secretary Amber Rudd and Madeleine Sumption in conversation about her new book on why immigration policy is so difficult
26th April 6pm
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/book-l...
Dr Mihnea Cuibus, Migration Observatory, summarises how the ongoing conflict in Iran may affect refugee flows to Europe, and more specifically, the UK.
Watch below ⬇️
Dr Mihnea Cuibus, Migration Observatory, summarises how the ongoing conflict in Iran may affect refugee flows to Europe, and more specifically, the UK.
Watch below ⬇️
Will the conflict in Iran affect UK asylum flows?
So far, it's too early to tell, but Iranians were the largest group seeking asylum in the UK in the past 10 years, and first among small boat arrivals.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
80k asylum appeals were pending at the end of 2025, double from a year before. Initial decision backlog has fallen but a growing appeals backlog means the number of asylum seekers receiving support - and in hotels - remains high.
Our updated tracker of Labour's goals:
How will the higher language requirement affect migrants? In short, we don’t know because there's no data on how many migrants can speak English at the B1 or B2 level.
In 2021, however, 90% of migrants living in England or Wales self-reported speaking English without difficulty.
The government has announced that migrants will have to pass an English language test at the B2 level to obtain settlement, up from the current B1 level.
This change will come into force in March 2027.
Too early to tell what the impact of conflict will be but unrest in Iran may plausibly affect UK asylum flows.
Iranians were largest group seeking asylum in UK in 2016-25, and first among small boat arrivals. UK has also been the top destination in Europe for Iranian asylum seekers.
Our analysis:
The government will stop issuing study visas to people from 4 countries, plus Skilled Worker visas to Afghans. It said this is because people from those countries were the most likely to make an asylum claim after coming to the UK to study.
In 2025, there were 3,209 grants to affected nationals 👇
New ONS data: % of intl students who stay in the UK has continued to increase.
More are switching to other visas - 2 yrs after arrival, 62% of students who arrived in YE June 2023 had switched, up from 17% among YE June 2020 arrivals.
Our previous analysis on this linked below
New Home Office stats show a big increase in the processing of asylum claims - which should be good news, but will add big strain to an already stretched tribunals system which will have to deal with an additional tens of thousands of appeals.
As always, in the full briefing, we take a look at much, much more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Settlement rates are expected to increase. One indication is that 82% of migrants who arrived in 2022 still had leave 2 years later, the highest share of any cohort in the past 20 years.
This is before we consider the impact of govt's earned settlement proposals, which will reduce settlement rates.
The majority of non-EU migrants who arrived during the past two decades did not go on to acquire settlement.
Settlement rates were much higher for family migrants (approx. 80%) than for work migrants and students (approx. 25% and 15%, respectively).
How many UK migrants get settlement, also known as Indefinite Leave to Remain?
We answer that question, and more, in our updated settlement briefing.
Our director @msumption.bsky.social went on the Rest is Money to talk about her new book plus how migration affects public finances, employers, and UK workers. Catch up here open.spotify.com/episode/3dqC...
This is exciting! Our director, the brilliant @msumption.bsky.social, has written this super accessible and interesting book What is Immigration Policy For? (Spoiler alert: it’s complicated). Pre-order in the next three days for 25% off! Out on March 31 www.waterstones.com/book/what-is...
There's 25% off pre-orders today and tomorrow here
www.waterstones.com/book/what-is...
What is immigration policy for?
Our wonderful director, @msumption.bsky.social, answers this question in her new book.
You can pre-order Madeleine’s book using the code FEB26 for 25% off. Offer ends 20 Feb.
🔗www.waterstones.com/campaign/february-pre-or... #WPreorder
What is immigration policy for?
Our wonderful director, @msumption.bsky.social, answers this question in her new book.
You can pre-order Madeleine’s book using the code FEB26 for 25% off. Offer ends 20 Feb.
🔗www.waterstones.com/campaign/february-pre-or... #WPreorder