An uncalibrated #MMM can get ROAS direction wrong, not just magnitude. We walk through prior predictive checks, ROAS parametrization, saturation likelihoods, and where lift tests break down.
Full recording available on youtube : dub.sh/oAjXCiG
#MMMCalibration #BayesianModeling
please nuke us
🇭🇺🇪🇺
Hot take: all the City Connect uniforms are dreadful. All of them.
Its not wild, its the perfect encapsulation of America.
You could argue that teams with massive negative goal differences don't belong in the playoffs.
Why do software companies assume Linux users want .deb installers?
Most data scientists learn Bayesian stats from textbooks.
Few get to learn from the people who built the library.
This June, @fonnesbeck.bsky.social Niall Oulton & Robert Zinkov are running a 2.5-day hands-on PyMC workshop in London.
Reserve your spot: dub.link/oaudJAt
I'm looking forward to teaching this. I do love the small-group, in-person format. If you can get yourself to London (or are already there), come join us!
Very exciting!
Of all the vile things Trump has done, this is what will finally topple him.
Since the start of the war in Iran, the average price of gas in the U.S. has climbed by nearly a dollar, according to the Energy Information Administration. See the full state-by-state look at the increase and how it could affect you. nyti.ms/4bPAGrw
Just heading up to Boston for @sloansportsconf.bsky.social today. If you happen to be at the meeting, please stop and say hello!
This is good, and actually not really that Stan-specific. Could easily be used as guidance for Numpyro and PyMC with very minor tweaking.
Updated:
VAR is quite literally ruining football. Who wants to watch this?
Fuck this. Connor Hellebuyck is the only reason the US is wearing gold medals. The only reason.
www.tsn.ca/olympics/art...
Word of the day: profligate (ˈpräfləɡət)
My gentle Puck, come hither.
Shooting on Hellebuyck short side when he's hugging the post is a low-probability shot. #hockeyanalytics
Maybe the softest goal you will ever see. Canada appeared to have no idea how to run an OT.
If you haven't cancelled your @paramountplus.com subscription, you are complicit.
Springsteen next year. I'm sure he'd love it.
Mercury, Messenger of the Gods, by Giovanni Battista Tiepolo, 18th c, 📸 by @PhilEllsworth1
Wow, Mike Johnson is actually swearing in Democrats now! What has the world come to?
Why on earth would you list command options in anything but alphabetical order?
How are those tariffs working out?
I see blog posts like this almost every day. You never see the follow up post where the half-baked OSS tool doesn't measure up and they crawl back to the subscription. Lather, rinse and repeat.
