Ja-siden vinder Virginias redistrictingafstemning med 3 procentpoint, ser det ud til (som gennemsnittet af målinger indikerede - og tættere, end jeg selv troede).

Virginia Redistricting Referendum 2026: Latest Polls (Free Access) Track the latest polls in Virginia's redistricting referendum.

Et gennemsnit af meningsmålinger foretaget i april til Virginias redistrictingafstemning i morgen (jf. NYT’s oversigt) indikerer, at ja-siden vinder med 3 procentpoint i runde tal. Givet det politiske klima vil jeg gætte på, at ja-sidens sejr ender med at være over +5, potentielt en del over.

Supreme Court Justices Alito and Thomas not planning to retire this year, sources say Sources close to Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas tell CBS News neither is planning to retire this year.

Det lader ikke til, at Alito (trods megen spekulation) eller Thomas har planer om at trække sig fra Højesteret i år:

Checking in on some majority-Hispanic areas in the NJ-11 special election.

Belleville Township (50.2% Hispanic)

2020: Biden 61-38 (+23)
2024: Harris 51-47 (+4)
2025: Sherrill 63-37 (+26)
***
2026: Mejia 65-35 (+30)

Interessant og vigtig undersøgelse af Votebeat: “Twenty-seven of the 37 respondents said it was at least somewhat likely that the federal government would deploy some form of military or law enforcement at or near polling places in the midterms.”

Har glædet mig til det her: I den kommende tid er jeg vært på Projekt Trump på Altinget - en podcast om Trumps politiske projekt i 10 episoder.

@jakobnielsen.bsky.social er naturligvis gæst i første afsnit.

Apple:
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/p...

Spotify:
open.spotify.com/episode/1bWe...

Swalwell nu også på vej ud af Huset.

Sen. Ruben Gallego on Eric Swalwell: “He should be expelled from Congress.”

“I want to be clear: I had no knowledge of the allegations of assault, harassment, and predatory behavior against Eric Swalwell.”

The two have been friends for years.

Peltola raises almost $9M in first three months of Senate bid The Democrat raised four times as much as GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan for the quarter in the key Senate race.

Lige nu ser det ud, som om Alaska er Demokraternes tredjebedste mulighed for at fravriste GOP et sæde i Senatet (efter Maine og North Carolina).

Swalwell kaster håndklædet i ringen i Californiens guvernørvalg.

”(..) policy-as-politics doesn’t work. (..) The essence of mass politics is engaging with people in civil society — and not just an engaged layer of activists — in a sustained, repeated way that’s visible to fellow citizens with whom they are linked in work and community.“

Det er i al fald altid svært at spå om den slags. Hvis nogen havde sagt i 2016, at Trump ville komme ret tæt på at vinde hispanics i 2024, ville de fleste have rystet på hovedet. Men intet er permanent, når det gælder koalitioner, som du også er inde på.

Ja, det ryk kan man ikke tage fejl af

Overall, Shawn Harris improved upon Kamala Harris's GA-14 margin by 25%. He lost by 12 while she lost by 37.

But in the five most Hispanic precincts in the district, he improved upon her margin by a whopping 42%. He won them by 28% while she lost them by 14%.

kunne være ældet bedre!

Wisconsin: I en jordsskredssejr til kandidaten Chris Taylor udvider venstrefløjen majoriteten i delstatens Højesteret fra 4-3 til 5-2.

Enig. og som samtidig stiller spørgsmålet: Hvem fører koalitionen videre?

Haha, mine forudsigelser vil jeg sandelig ikke anbefale folk at spille på 😅

En sejr til venstrefløjen i Wisconsin ved højesteretsvalget ”vil betyde, at det kommer til at vare lang tid, før de konservative kan få flertallet tilbage, og det falder i øvrigt sammen med, at Wisconsins guvernørembede samt delstatsforsamlingen snart er på spil,” anfører tidl. republikansk strateg.

I anledning af Det Hvide Hus’ nyeste forslag er denne, jeg skrev i februar, måske værd at genlæse:
www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tru...

Go Aften Live

Medvirkede i Go’ Aften Live i går for at tale om fyringen af Pam Bondi som justitsminister. Kan findes på Play!

Poll shows mixed signs for Democratic push to gain seats in Congress A slight majority of Virginia voters supports giving Democrats a temporary edge in congressional maps, but opponents are more motivated in new Post-Schar School poll.

“A slim majority of Virginia voters favors a redistricting measure to give Democrats as many as four extra seats in Congress this November, with 52 percent of likely voters saying they support redrawing state political maps and 47 percent opposed (..).”

Eftermiddag - #3 Umulig parkering i København (01:00): Skal Socialdemokratiet hellere stå uden for indflydelse end at indgå i en midterregering? Medvirkende: Gustav Lyngaal Egeberg, Formand for de

Talte med Radio IIII tidligere om Trumps Irantale.

Trump Fires Pam Bondi as Attorney General In a social media post, President Trump said he was replacing Ms. Bondi with Todd Blanche, her deputy, on an interim basis.

President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday, removing the nation’s top law enforcement officer after privately venting his frustrations for months over her handling of the Epstein files and her failed efforts to prosecute his political enemies.

Pam Bondi kan være på vej ud:

“President Donald Trump has informed Pam Bondi that her time as his attorney general is nearing an end, multiple sources familiar with the situation told Semafor.”

Endnu større margin forudsiges her. Svært at forestille sig andet end nederlag til Trump.

“Based on the briefs, scotusbot, The Economist’s model forecasting Supreme Court rulings, agrees the administration will lose—by a vote of 5-4 or 6-3.”

How popular is Donald Trump? Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Trump er nu nominelt under 40 % i approval rating ifølge Nate Silvers gennemsnit og nominelt over 57 % i disapproval rating. Hans net approval var 28. februar -13,4, mens den nu er -17,4.

“Democratic challenges pale in comparison to those facing the GOP, which has jettisoned its principles, attaching itself to a president who promised to lower prices, then delivered steep tariffs and an unexplained war of choice in the Mideast that sent prices at the pump soaring.“

Sabato’s Crystal Ball rykker vurderingen af 11 kongresdistrikter i en demokratisk retning, omend de fleste går fra at være “sandsynlige” til “sikre.“