I dont think this is defensible. BEA uses a lot of shit source data even when better alternatives exist. Doesnt mean switching up the source midstream like this is ok. Looks a lot less like a stable process now
Exactly! So we emailed and got this response. They have been using the source data despite it not meeting CPI publication standards for years but suddenly shifted when there was a large gain. A shift in source data would typically be done as part of an annual revision and disclosed ahead of time:
Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look
That is a reasonable concern, but there are plenty of noisy sources ripe for improvement, that is what the annual benchmark process is all about. Changing things in an ad hoc way with no disclosure is the real news here, and decidedly not how they used to make decisions
If youre a pundit on one of these arsenal podcasts, channels, or shows, you gain a bigger following on the other site if you lean into the most base anxieties of what extremely online fans express most regularly.
The extremely online fans get mad. Arsenal pundits who lean in & pile on. Profit
Trump wanted low rates but when you pick the most partisan guy on the basis of obsequiousness, he may not get what he wants...
Also doesn't help when the dollar has shown persistent weakening for the first time in a while.
The long-term borrowing costs that American businesses, families, and Uncle Sam face...those are based on more than one election cycle
If you're going to cut rates to please the current President, there's some additional inflation or future rate hikes that also get priced in...
What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair
-More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican
-Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH.
Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis
Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice
His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience.
Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker
Tired: Data-dependence
Wired: Presidential-dependence
It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through
- Likely opponents for top two
- Who gets eighth
- Is a draw enough for Napoli?
Article 👇
www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social !
talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
The real move here is to say "we were really right because that's where Core PCE is now tracking"
no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Restaurant inflation still biting
Womp womp
CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend
When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
DELTA AIR LINES, INC. Passenger Revenue (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, (in millions) 2025 2024 $ Change % Change 2025 2024 $ Change % Change Ticket - Main cabin $ 5,620 $ 6,047 $ (427) (7) % $ 23,391 $ 24,497 $ (1,106) (5) % Ticket - Premium products 5,695 5,222 473 9 % 22,097 20,599 1,498 7 % Loyalty travel awards 1,096 1,043 53 5 % 4,237 3,841 396 10 % Travel-related services 505 503 2 — % 2,043 1,957 86 4 % Passenger revenue $ 12,916 $ 12,815 $ 101 1 % $ 51,768 $ 50,894 $ 874 2 %
Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.
nm we got DAL
*DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND
*DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53
*DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
“As this match *kinda* shows”
Would prefer a more balanced pitch too. This is not my platonic ideal of a match but if you can get good finishes while encouraging attacking bowling & fields, would be good for broader game. T20s have done this for attacking batting (& defensive bowling)
It’s not the greatest match i’ve ever seen and I dont think we need this unbalanced of a pitch in general, but it’s set up to be a thrilling finish with extremely attacking bowling. It wouldnt be bad for cricket to try to capture that more consistently
Ok not “all that is great” but probably 80%. Which is pretty good and helps make sure we have a format that isnt something only 3-5 countries can afford to play
As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s
4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA
3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA
One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.
fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening
META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade.
what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction