➡️ The best deterrent for further conflict is that there is, at least, a de-facto membership of NATO for Ukraine. Which means that if there´s a breaking of the ceasefire or the peace deal, Ukraine becomes ultimately a member of NATO.
➡️ The most important thing we have to understand is that if the deal shows any kind of weakness or loss for Ukraine, we have all lost. It´s an issue of the triangle of statehood: independence, sovereignty to decide, territorial integrity.
➡️ The only thing that Vladimir Putin understands is power. You show any kind of a weakness and he will go after you. There´s a Russian saying: “If you use a knife or a bayonet, push in and it´s soft, go all the way. If It´s hard, pull back”. Let´s be hard!
Stage n.2 - Ceasefire
Stage n.3 - Peace Negotiation
➡️ This is not only about the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. This is also about European security, its about the free world, its about the international rules-based-order. That´s why Europe should be involved.
➡️ We need a 3-Stages Plan:
Stage n.1 - Before the Negotiations: Put Ukraine in a position of strength through military, political and financial support; Broaden use of sanctions and frozen assets; Security arrangement in which Ukraine takes the lead, Europe supports, the US provides the backstop.
➡️ Europe needs to have a plan. One of the problems is that we have this sort of cacophonic diplomacy. If we want to have an initiative, there needs to be a European and Ukraninan Peace Plan with which we can then talk with President Trump, and later on with President Putin.
➡️ We need President Zelenskyy and President Trump to communicate again and to get a minerals deal. That will probably be a tipping point for a bigger deal towards a cease-fire and peace negotiations.
[FOOD FOR THOUGHT] Finnish President, Alexander Stubb, is one of the most remarkable EU leaders atm. Its acute judgement, cool-headed diplomacy and nordic pragmatism are absorbing.
I´ve selected 7 takeaways on Ukraine from its most recent interview w/ Bloomberg:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUTM...
"The scenes today in Damascus—the toppling of statues, the taking selfies of the dictator’s palace—are the same ones that will unfold in Caracas, Tehran, or Moscow on the day the soldiers of those regimes lose their faith in the leadership, and the public loses their fear of those soldiers too"
We stand with Ukraine 🇺🇦, as long as necessary, and whatever it takes.
Dear President Zelenskyy, we will do our utmost to see you in the EU 🇪🇺 as a free European nation as soon as possible.
Looking forward to welcoming you at the December European Council in Brussels. #EUCO
