The monsoon is a bit more directly connected to Niño/Niña via the weakening/strengthening trade winds. Whereas for other parts of the world the connection is indirect, which is why we can't always say El Niño = this weather in this location (drought in southeast Australia for example)
Then we had a wet summer and farmers got angry at the BoM for 'getting the El Niño forecast wrong' e.g. www.mla.com.au/news-and-eve...
Agreed, but whether there is a drought or a flood is a combination of many drivers. We're touchy about this in Aus because in 2023, the media wrote many articles about the impending El Niño and drought before the BoM had made any official declarations leading to big impacts on livestock markets.
And even if we get a strong El Niño, how that manifests as weather in different locations is another kettle of fish, which is why this obsession with Niño3.4 forecasts is not helpful.
source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
NOAA's latest update on state of El Niño, just 3 hours old.
Summary:
1. We are in neutral conditions and will likely remain that way for several months.
2. An El Niño is likely (61% chance) to emerge, but magnitude is still quite uncertain as we have not crossed spring predictability barrier.
Don't be shy to take on a little two-week side project. These five months will be the most precious three years of your academic journey.
An article titled Super-Duper El Nino by James Hansen and co-authors with a cartoon of a grumpy kangaroo on top
Screenshot of text showing quotes from my article saying that El Nino forecasts are the least reliable in March and April
One of the most famous climate scientists disagreeing with me is certainly an 'oh no' moment for any ECR. But, I stand by what I said, and ECMWF, whom many are basing these Super El Niño claims on, also called for caution: www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
Losing it at the kangaroo tho 😆...is it me?
France passed a law requiring solar panels on every parking lot with more than 80 spaces.
Equals 10 nuclear reactors
Reduces heat island, shades cars
The US -- 800 million parking spaces. Most of them are uncovered asphalt sitting in direct sunlight.
Why aren't we doing this?
Yep and the past summer (weak La Niña) saw drought and bushfires in SE Aust
Thanks for saying so. I wrote an article saying the same thing.
There enough actual problems without focusing on a maybe problem.
theconversation.com/why-the-phra...
I strongly believe that some of these issues would be partially solved if we could publish null results. Then, there won't be a motivation to look for scores that show the best results. Every field should have a journal of null results.
Hahaha we all do it
You can set your watch to autumn headlines declaring a catastrophic El Niño or La Niña. In this article, I throw a bucket of cold water on the heated headlines and reflect on why autumn forecasts of Nino3.4 are to be read with caution.
theconversation.com/why-the-phra...
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Feeling humid this morning in Melbourne as a blob of 'tropical air' sits above us
A large high-pressure ridge sets up shop over the Western US, generating record-breaking heat.
An atmospheric river follows the path of the ridge, bringing heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.
Q. Should I wear shorts or a raincoat in Melbourne summer?
A. Yes
This local Wolfdog joined an Olympic ski event and triggered the finish-line camera. This is Nazgul. He snuck into a cross-country skiing sprint this morning and raced the homestretch with some competitors before being escorted home. 14/10 someone get him a medal
AMOS2026 snapshots Day 2
youtube.com/shorts/RbSv-...
Jaeger Medal recognises outstanding career in earth sciences (including oceans) - only awarded every 2 years. Never been awarded to a woman!!! #nominateher
AMOS 2026 Day 1 snapshot
youtube.com/shorts/aBEI9...
The 2026 International Atmospheric River Conference (𝗜𝗔𝗥𝗖𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲) is coming to Porto, Portugal!
📅 19–23 October 2026 | 📍 Alfândega Congress Centre + virtual option
Join the conversation on atmospheric rivers and their impact on water, weather extremes, and climate resilience.
Oh and have some friends in the audience who will laugh loudly because laughter is contagious 😉
...and then watch some beginners and note what doesn't. But importantly have fun and good luck. It was terrifying but so much fun when I did it!
Start with big energy. Make yourself big when you walk on stage. It's easier to return to big energy if you start with it than to reach that point from a low energy point (people will laugh more if they feel pumped). Watch your fave comedians and note what works...
The usual scicomm tips apply like a strong hook and narrative. The best jokes are ones that surprise the audience and require a teeny bit of brain power from the audience (we were told to avoid puns and dad jokes for stand up). Ending by circling back to an earlier reference is a strong finish.
Sounds like the next iteration of "edgelord", but yes definitely scarier when it's done by world leaders instead of kids on 4chan.
Incredible: ~2500mm (78 inches) in 20 days - 1.5X the normal yearly rainfall in Grazalema, Spain and it’s only February. How? A 5000 mile Tropical Atmospheric River lifted by terrain in Southern Spain. H/T Nahel Belgherze #europe #flood #spain #weather
For those familiar w/ "ARkStorm/ARk2.0" flood scenarios for California, a comparable event has been unfolding on the Iberian Peninsula. These ridiculous rainfall accumulations, caused by a long series of extremely moist atmospheric rivers, have brought widespread severe flooding to Spain & Portugal.
