Congratulations to Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones for being elected to the HOF.
Here's my write-up, which includes fun facts and nuggets about the new Hall of Famers as well as the candidates who will be back for more in 2027.
www.cooperstowncred.com/carlos-beltr...
In less than five hours, the rest of the 2026 HOF Class will be announced.
Here's my "virtual" ballot, with the reasons why I've flipped from "no" to "yes" for some on the list:
Beltran
Jones
Utley
Pettitte
Hernandez
Abreu
Pedroia
Rollins
Buehrle
Wright
www.cooperstowncred.com/cooperstown-...
Table of Baseball Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 82% 79% - 86% 100% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 93% 0% Chase Utley 59% 55% - 63% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 50% 46% - 54% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 49% 45% - 53% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 44% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 31% 29% - 35% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 26% 23% - 30% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 24% 22% - 26% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 23% 21% - 26% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 20% 18% - 23% 0% 0% David Wright 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 7% 5% - 9% 0% 5% Ryan Braun 3% 2% - 5% 0% 97% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 4% 0% 99% Nick Markakis 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Rick Porcello 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9% Shin-Soo Choo 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9% Hunter Pence 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9%
Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.
Love Rosenthal's thinking here.
The Hall of Fame is filled with players who had fantastic peaks but didn't reach milestone numbers: King Felix, Pedroia, and Wright fit that bill.
And, by adding Pettitte and Buehrle, he's rewarding durability and consistency, even if both were rarely brilliant.
Great stuff, Ken. I love this ballot.
The Hall of Fame is already filled with players who were peak performers.
Most of the guys you added didn't put up "milestone" Hall of Fame numbers, but when we watched them on the field, we saw Hall of Fame quality play.
No. I write as a hobby, so no BBWAA membership.
It's just 3 days until the BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement.
I'm not a BBWAA member, but here is my "virtual" ballot for 2026.
Thanks to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for their hard work on the Tracker and this graphic.
www.cooperstowncred.com/cooperstown-...
Milestone ballot!
With their selections here, Pettitte (110) and Abreu (77) match their career highs in total votes, set last year. That was in 205 fewer ballots. Buehrle’s 46 votes now stand along as the most he has ever earned in one cycle. Wright, Pedroia, and Félix have already done it as well
Table listing Baseball Hall of Fame projections showing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5% Carlos Beltrán 83% 79% - 87% >99.9% 0% Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 90% 0% Chase Utley 60% 56% - 65% 0% 0% Félix Hernández 51% 46% - 56% 0% 0% Andy Pettitte 51% 46% - 55% 0% 0% Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 46% 0% 0% Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0% Bobby Abreu 32% 29% - 36% 0% 0% Cole Hamels 26% 22% - 31% 0% 0% Jimmy Rollins 23% 21% - 27% 0% 0% Dustin Pedroia 23% 20% - 27% 0% 0% Mark Buehrle 20% 17% - 24% 0% 0% Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0% David Wright 16% 14% - 20% 0% 0% Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0% Torii Hunter 6% 4% - 8% 0% 30% Ryan Braun 2% 1% - 6% 0% 96% Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 5% 0% 98% Nick Markakis 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 99% Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99% Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99%
With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
Correct.
Here's Part Two of the one-and-dones, profiles/tributes to five outfielders who had excellent careers, but will fall short of the Hall of Fame when the vote is announced.
This piece is about Matt Kemp, Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo.
www.cooperstowncred.com/the-one-and-...
This is one of the weakest classes of first-year candidates for the HOF in recent years, with 11 out of 12 likely to get under 5%.
This is Part One of my one-and-done tributes: Edwin Encarnacion, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Rick Porcello, and Gio Gonzalez.
www.cooperstowncred.com/the-one-and-...
With 116 ballots revealed/~27.1% known:
Beltrán 87.9%
Andruw 82.8%
-
Utley 65.5%
Félix 59.5%
Pettitte 55.2%
A-Rod 50.9%
Manny 45.7%
Abreu 40.5%
Hamels 31.0%
Rollins 29.3%
Pedroia 25.9%
Buehrle 22.4%
Wright 19.8%
K-Rod 14.7%
Vizquel 11.2%
-
Torii 4.3%
Braun 3.4%
Choo/EE/Pence 0.9%
tracker.fyi
In the first six years of his career, Ryan Braun looked like a sure-fire Hall of Famer in the making.
Then, an injury and PED suspension changed the trajectory of his career downwards.
Braun is on the 2026 BBWAA HOF ballot. This is a profile of his career.
www.cooperstowncred.com/ryan-braun-i...
Will post my first full set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections in the new year. But as a sneak peak, my model has Carlos Beltrán elected in 82% of simulations based on 100 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com’s Tracker. Andruw Jones elected 57% of the time.
Well done, Mike, and congratulations.
Your logic here makes a lot of sense. I agree with most of it, except that I gave up on the PED guys once the Era Committee shut out Bonds and Clemens three years ago.
I don't see the point anymore.
I prefer to cast a "virtual" vote for Pedroia and Wright.
Next year's 2027 Contemporary Baseball Era Non-Players Committee (1980 to Present) is going to be wild between 4 host of stone-cold Hall of Famers debuting, and the new rule regarding two consecutive outcomes of <5 votes leading to permanent ineligibility.
Thread.
Let’s see who might debut…
Congratulations Ian. Great ballot!
With 62 ballots revealed/~14.5% of the total vote known:
Beltrán 82.3%
Andruw 80.6%
-
Utley 64.5%
Félix 61.3%
Pettitte 56.5%
A-Rod 53.2%
Manny 48.4%
Abreu 43.5%
Hamels 37.1%
Pedroia 27.4%
Buehrle 22.6%
Rollins 25.8%
Wright 21.0%
Vizquel 17.7%
K-Rod 12.9%
Braun 6.5%
-
EE/Torii/Pence 1.6%
tracker.fyi
Net gained/lost votes through 70 ballots (~16.4% of the vote):
Félix +15
Pettitte +8
Abreu +7
Pedroia +7
Utley +7
Andruw +5
Beltrán +4
A-Rod +4
Wright +4
Buehrle +3
K-Rod +3
Manny +2
Rollins +2
Vizquel +1
---
Hunter -1
tracker.fyi
My first profile for the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot is for the best newcomer to the ballot, Cole Hamels.
Hamels was consistently excellent, but never dominant.
As pitching volume declines, how will we look at HOF candidates in the future?
www.cooperstowncred.com/the-hall-of-...
Ballot 36 from Sean Forman: Abreu add to +5, Beltrán, Buehrle, Hamels, Félix, Andruw, Pedroia, Manny, ARod add to +2, Utley, with a Pettitte drop to +3
Ballot #36 is from Sean Forman. He adds back Abreu (now +5) and A-Rod (+2) after dropping them for space last year, while strategically omitting Pettitte, who falls to +3. Hamels gets his 10th Hall vote and sits at 27.8% his first year.
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Interesting. I thought "only Jeff Kent" WAS the most likely outcome.
I think Murphy is a much stronger candidate. Longer peak, more important position, two MVPs.
But it pains me that we're going to see this happen again in 3 years, where they won't get enough votes to make the Hall but they will get enough to make it impossible for more than one player to make it.
Congratulations to the newest Hall of Famer, Jeff Kent. Fun fact (?): The Tracker was a thing for all 10 years of Jeff Kent's run on the BBWAA ballot. He received a total of 998 votes over that decade from the writers and the Tracker was able to log 774 of those as public votes (77.6%). Fun!
Congratulations to Jeff Kent, who was elected tonight to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.
He got 14 votes from the 16-member committee.
Carlos Delgado came in 2nd place with 9 votes, while Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy got 6 votes each.
www.cooperstowncred.com/jeff-kent-fi...
The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee votes today in Orlando on the Hall of Fame candidacies of eight players.
IMO, Jeff Kent will get the call today that every player dreams of.
www.cooperstowncred.com/why-does-jef...
Three years ago, Don Mattingly came four votes short of the Hall of Fame? Will today be the day that Cooperstown comes calling?
www.cooperstowncred.com/should-donni...
With a bunch of old school Hall of Famers on today's Era Committee, could this be the year Dale Murphy makes the Hall of Fame?
www.cooperstowncred.com/dale-murphy-...
What's interesting to me is that several of the Hall of Famers on the committee (Marichal, Jenkins, Kaat, Perez) mostly played before anyone on the ballot was a significant player in the majors.
Feels like a panel built for Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly without any obvious cronies.