Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise

The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise. Here is my analysis of the latest polls

kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...

Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise

The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise

kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...

Polls: Americans hate Trump, his war and what he’s doing to the US For Trump to stand a chance at the mid-terms, he needs to win over independents. But they hate him – and their dislike is only growing

Trump breaks the golden rule: don't go to war without public support. See my analysis for New World.
thenewworld.substack.com/p/polls-amer...

It’s official: Reform has slumped in the polls Prime minister Farage? The danger has receded… for the moment.

Reform really has lost support. Here's the evidence. The fault, dear Nigel, is not in the polls but in yourselves.
www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Starmer says “it was me who made the mistake” of appointing Mandelson ambassador to the US. His apology is unacceptable. The PM should of course have said “it was I who made the mistake”.

Donald Trump is no Franklin Roosevelt

Labour's line post Gorton is that the Tories lost 20 out of 21 by-elections in 2010-15. Of ther 21, just 4 were defended by the Tories: 2 to lost to sitting MPs defecting to Ukip. So 2 conventional Tory defences - 1 lost (Corby), 1 held (Newark). Not quite the catastrophe Labour are now making out.

The US mid-terms: will Trump cheat or voters choose? What the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him

New World asked me to analyse what the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him

kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-us-mid...

Rayner may be ahead of Starmer and Streeting… but maybe not A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – so should another on tax-and-spend.

A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – and so should another on tax-and-spend.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/rayner-may...

Why the polls are all over the place Their differences matter and need to be explained. Here’s a start

The differences among polling companies are not just about numbers; they tell different stories about the state of our multiparty politics. This post explores the reasons why their results vary

kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-po...

Half the picture: what ‘The British General Election of 2024’ doesn’t reveal This 22nd book in the series lacks something that made its predecessors so compelling—an understanding of the people involved in the campaign, not jus...

The book that political junkies have been waiting for has just been published. The British General Election of 2024 is the latest in a series that goes back to 1945. This review, first published by Prospect, discusses its strengths – and its gaps.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...

Middle America has turned against Trump Voters on Main Street accuse him of having the anti-Midas touch

From Greenland to Minneapolis, Donald Trump is in trouble with middle America. His troubles extend to his policies across the board. Voters now regard him as anti-Midas: everything he touches turns to dross.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/middle-ame...

Why the right-wing media want a Reform-Conservative pact… …and why they are likely to be disappointed

The right-wing media want a Reform-Tory pact. My latest Substack post analyses why they are unlikely to get their way.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-ri...

Can Britain succeed where France has failed? Needed: a fair, affordable plan for pensions. It will take guts, but might be on the way

In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way

kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...

In the early hours of May 7, 1945, Germany surrendered to the allies, including Russia, 1,415 days after Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. Putin's troops invaded Ukraine 1,415 days ago this morning. The "special military operation" has now lasted longer than the "great patriotic war".

Starmer's options in the last chance saloon Resign, be removed, or find the "wow" factor

My new year post argues that Labour’s leader must find the “wow” factor if he is not to resign, be removed or condemn Labour to certain defeat at the next election
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-o...

2025: the year when the rules of ice cream battles changed British politics Today’s party leaders face the same basic challenge as Mr Whippy

For my final Substack post of 2025 I look at the wholesale transfer of support from the main legacy parties (Lab + Con) to the surging insurgents (Reform + Green) - and their similarity to the tactics of ice cream vans

kellnerp.substack.com/p/2025-the-y...

Rachel Reeves’s biggest crisis isn’t over Productivity remains a headache. Blame big tech, not just the Tories

My latest Substack post analyses Britain’s continuing problems with productivity. Spoiler alert: they are not just the fault of the Tories. They go deeper than that.
PS: Subscription to my posts is free.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...

The majority opposed to Brexit has reached eight million Ministers need courage to keep it that way

Suddenly the talk at Westminster is of the government wanting a closer relationship with the European Union. What should we make of this? My latest Substack crunches the numbers.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...

How Labour could win without Starmer It won’t be easy. The attempt might fail. How could the party maximise its chances of success?

If Labour changes its leader, how can it win the next election? My post considers how the new prime minister could maximise their chances of success. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

Thatcher’s victories have lessons for us all Progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories

Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories

kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...

Revealed: the rule change that puts Starmer at risk A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister

A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...

A time to moan and a time to choose To become prime minister, Farage must defy history.

To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects

kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...

Peers beware Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware

Voters are not listening New research uncovers the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice

My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

“Ignorance is Strength”. Was Orwell’s Big Brother right? Yes – for populists. Parties like Reform rely on voters overstating the scale of today’s problems

Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...

History’s warning for Starmer and Badenoch The "respect index" shows that their problems are even worse than they think

Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...

How the Tories can avoid the abyss… … and the two people who can help them see off Reform

We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...

Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?